2018 Astros Minor League Thread

My Houston farm update after 1 month:


C:
Stubbs 45
Papierski 45
Perry 45

Notes: Stubbs is off to a great start and I considered him for a 50 grade. But his current numbers are held up by a .385 BABIP, and he has yet to show enough power to justify a ceiling more than a fringy regular or quality backup. Papierski is showing an elite 29% walk rate while hitting a paltry .194. He needs to be more aggressive but I am still optimistic. Perry is in extended spring training but may be the highest ceiling catching prospect in the system. Jamie Ritchie and Chuckie Robinson have been early disappointments. Catcher is the weakest position in the system.

1B:
Jones 45
Sieber 45
Adams 45

Notes: AJ Reeds star is fading fast and he is probably at the point where he’d be better off in a different organization. Jones has seemingly come out of nowhere, but his kk/bb numbers are in line with what he’s done previously; he’s just hitting for more extra bases and getting lucky. Expectations should be tempered but any time a player dominates AA he’s on the radar. Sieber and Adams are holding steady to preseason expectations. Tyler White deserves to be in the majors.

2B:
Birk 45
Rojas 45
E Valdez 45

Notes: Tony Kemp is a AAAA guy which is fine given the presence of Altuve. Birk got off to a horrible start but has rebounded and has been a roughly average AA hitter. Rojas has hit really well in High A but only 1 HR and his age is working against him. Rojas’ big opportunity will come when he gets to AA. Valdez is in extended spring but his pedigree and early career numbers have him on the map. Cody Bohanek hasn’t done anything in A ball to put himself on the map. The system is fairly weak at 2B.

SS:
Arauz 50
Nova 50
Mayfield 45
A Sierra 45
M Sierra 45
Cueta 45
Carrasco 45

Notes: Arauz is a rising star in the system. I saw him as a player with limited ceiling but so far this year he’s proving me wrong with a .169 iso while walking more than he is striking out and playing a good SS. Nova might be the highest ceiling position player prospect in the system but we will have to wait until June to see him. Alex DeGoti hasn’t done anything in Corpus to change my perception of him as a non-prospect. Anibal Sierra has good slash numbers but it’s due to BABIP luck and at his age there’s nothing to get excited about until he gets to AA. Jack Mayfield is hitting for power and playing SS; I said earlier I think he will play in the majors and still feel that way. MiguelAngel Sierra, Yorbin Cueta, and Deury Carrasco are all prospects to watch once short season teams get started. I was hoping one of Trompiz, Duarte, or Almonte would have a breakout but it hasn’t happened.

3B:
Davis 50
Toro 50
Perez 50
Tanielu 45
Notes: Davis’ stock is still pretty high and he’s ready for an extended look in the majors. Toro may be the fastest rising prospect in the system. He’s walking, avoiding strikeouts, hitting for power, and playing a premium defensive position all while being young for his league. Tanielu is quietly having a very good season. His age is working against him but he’s hit for power and rarely strikes out, plus he has defensive value. Joe Perez will be one to watch in June. Houston has a very strong group of 3B prospects, although I’m sure QC would like an upgrade over Adrian Tovalin.

RF:
Tucker 60
Benedetti 45
Machado 45
Abreu 45
Tucker only having 2 HR is a little disappointing but otherwise his stock is still very high and he’s not struggling in AAA as a 21 year old so that’s a good sign. Benedetti keeps hitting but will need a bigger sample and more scouting reports before I can have a good opinion on him. I’m disappointed in Payano and De La Cruz as I had mild hopes they would break out. Carlos Machado and Wilyer Abreu are 2 young OF I will be tracking in short season.

CF:
Straw 50
Ferguson 45
Wrenn 45
Dawson 45
Celestino 45
Notes: Straw has elevated himself and now it’s easy to envision him as a Billy Hamilton quality player. Ferguson has also raised his stock, I considered him for a 50 grade but some of his offense has been luck. I’m also much higher on Dawson now, as his ability to play CF increases his value a lot and he’s hitting pretty well in the early going. I’m very disappointed in Wrenn; his current strikeout rate and lack of power won’t play. Julks and Meyers have struggled but I’m still mildly hopeful both will improve. Celestino is the highest ceiling OF in the lower levels of Houston’s system.

LF:
Alvarez 55
Matijevic 50

Notes: Alvarez has cemented himself as a Top 100 guy and at this rate will be a Top 30 overall prospect by year end. Matijevic is hurt but prior to that was hitting really well. There are few “honorable mention” OF types in extended spring: Ronnie Rafael, Ramiro Rodriguez, Juan Ramirez. Chas McCormick is off to a good start in High A but will need to sustain that to really get on the map. Jon Kemmer has had a disappointing start and his leash is getting shorter.

RHP:
Whitley 60
Martes 55
Paulino 50
Armenteros 50
James 50
C Martin 50
Bukauskas 50
Ivey 50
Thornton 45
Gustave 45
McCurry 45
Bostick 45
Dykxhoorn 45
Quiala 45
R Ferrell 45
Bielak 45
H Perez 45
Alcala 45
Bailey 45
LaRue 45
Garcia 45
Solomon 45
Javier 45
Solis 45
Macuare 45
E Rodriguez 45

Notes: The system continues to be held up by the tremendous pitching depth. Ivey, Corbin Martin, James, and Bielak have moved up a tier. Bukauskas has been a mild disappointment, but it’s unwise to judge pitching prospects this early. Anxious for each team to get reinforcements: Paulino in Fresno, Whitley in Corpus, Hernandez in BC, and Ruppenthal in QC. Martes stock is falling fast, but again, Houston’s minor league pitching depth is elite.

LHP:
C Perez 50
Emanuel 45
Guduan 45
F Valdez 45
Hartman 45
Adcock 45
Mushinski 45
Sandoval 45

Notes: I can’t decide if Perez should be a 45 or a 50; a 50 grade puts emphasis on his era and signing bonus while his size and underlying stats point to a 40 or 45. Mushinski’s stock is on the rise, and I’m still very high on Sandoval. Holding off judgement on Adcock and Scheetz until they get to AA. Next to catcher, left handed pitching is the weakest area in Houston’s farm system.

 

Yes. Also the same Ronny Rafael who received a $1.5M signing bonus and is still only 20 years old. A guy I listed as not quite worth a 45 grade but just an honorable mention guy worth watching to see if he’s improved.

 

I don't understand the grades. You have a scale from 45-60. 50 seems to the cut off where it's either a legit prospect or someone who's had actual ML time already. 45 is literally everyone else.

 

I used the mlb.com scale. Roughly, 60+ are super elite guys, 55 are Top 100, 50 are good but flawed prospects who would fall in almost every orgs top 20, 45 are legit prospects who have some major limiting factor(s) that place them in that lower tier. “Everybody else” would be the 30-40 grade guys who aren’t legit prospects.

 

Some sites are a little more optimistic than others, but here's a rough estimate.

Grade - Average WAR 1st 7 years
40 - 1 or less
45 - 2
50 - 4.5
55 - 8.1
60 - 13
65 - 15.5

I think Snake's grades are on the slight optimistic side, but I don't put much stock into most grades prior to AA (i.e., I don't pay attention enough to the grades in lower levels to have a good feel in the difference between a 40 and a 45).

 

Kent Emanuel moving to pen per Luhnow to see if he might be able to help Astros in second half.

 

Paulino is supposed to make his debut today, so he probably takes that spot in the rotation.

 

Once he gets that OPS over .800. I'll demand .900.

 

He went 11-4?

Damn, that's tough to do, respect.

 

Big deal. Wake me when it's over .900

 

Why not cut to the chase. 1.200!

 

But then we'll be disappointed when it takes him an entire week to get there. I like his current pace of increasing it to the next .100 every game.

 

Leave bob alone. Whatever the hell he's doing is working.

 

A gradual crescendo? Works for me

 

i'm hoping Kyle Tucker is that final piece on offense. he seems alittle streaky right now,but by june he should be ready.