Javier struck out eight in 5.2 innings. If being "a little up and down" since getting promoted results in a 1.98 ERA over 41 innings while allowing opposing batters to hit .157 and allowing just under 5 hits per 9 innings (22 in 41 IP) qualifies as "a little up and down" he's doing alright.
Saturday: - Tyler Ivey allowed a hit, walked two, and struck out eight in the second game of Buies Creek's doubleheader in Wilmington - Taylor Jones went 4-4 with an RBI double and a sac fly; Lorenzo Quintana hit a solo homer (11) and Alex De Goti hit a walk-off two-run homer (11) in Corpus Christi's 7-5 win over Midland. The win snapped the Hooks' six-game losing streak. - Bryan Abreu allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits, walked two, and struck out 11 in his first Midwest League start; his first three appearances in Quad Cities were in relief
Can someone post a list of all Astros (top-50?) prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December? Trying to get a sense for those guys in the farm system the Astros would likely have to add to the 40-man roster or lose for nothing if they don’t trade them now.
My best guess: High risk: C Garrett Stubbs OF Myles Straw RHP Rogelio Armenteros RHP Trent Thornton RHP Josh James RHP Riley Ferrell Moderate risk: OF Drew Ferguson RHP Brock Dykxhoorn RHP Framber Valdez RHP Cy Sneed RHP Brendan McCurry RHP Akeem Bostick Low risk: C Jamie Ritchie IF Nick Tanielu IF Antonio Nunez RHP Ralph Garza RHP Ryan Thompson LHP Kent Emanuel RHP Matt Ramsey C Eduardo De Oleo RHP Angel Heredia RHP Justin Ferrell LHP Alex Winkelman RHP Yoanys Quiala RHP Jose Hernandez Houston has done a good job over the last 2 seasons at pushing guys thru or out of the system so their Rule 5 risk is less than it has been. There could be a few international signee guys that are eligible that I’m missing but I doubt any would be even a moderate risk of being drafted.
Thanks! Seems like it would make sense to try to move at least a couple of those guys now. Maybe they can wait until after the season, but who knows what’ll be available then? Hard to imagine losing very many guys off the current 40-man roster next winter. Unless some other moves are made, seems like there’s a good chance the Astros will lose multiple good prospects for nothing in December.
Good call, somehow I missed James. I could see him getting added to the 40-man this year and pitching in Sept.
They should have plenty of room for the high risk guys. They have 6 pending free agents (Maldonado, Marwin, Gattis, Keuchel, Morton, and Sipp) plus 2 guys with club options that won’t be picked up (McCann and Harris). They also have a handful of guys who they can probably DFA (Rodgers, Gustave, Boshers, Guduan). I do think it probable that they’ll lose one of the moderate risk pitchers, several of those guys have big upside and there are a lot of rebuilding teams with lacking pitching depth.
Even if they protect all of your High Risk guys, in addition to at least one pitcher, it seems like a no-brainer that some team will pick up Drew Ferguson as a fourth or fifth OF. Seems like they should see what they could get for him now.
Ferguson is a pretty low ceiling player and now has an injury history. Before he got hurt he was on track to earn a surefire 40 man slot, but now I consider him unlikely to be added or drafted.
I was referring to his drop in K% since his promotion. It's nice that he has such a low ERA but I'm not going to place too much importance on an avg against that's being driven by a .192 BABIP against. Also, is Javier known for having a high spin fastball? He seems to have a knack for generating infield fly balls.
Hector Perez probably belongs on the high risk section. Bryan Abreu and Arauz (I think) are at least moderate risks. Miguelangel Sierra has some risk as well. I think being a lefty, Framber would be a pretty high risk.
OK, so he's "a little up and down" because he's not striking people out at an obscene rate like he was before his promotion.
My understanding could be wrong, but: Hector Perez, Jonathan Arauz, and Miguelangel Sierra signed in July 2014, so they shouldn’t be eligible until 2019. If they are eligible Sierra has zero chance of getting picked; guys striking out 33% of the time in A ball don’t get picked in the Rule 5 draft. Hector Perez would be a high risk if he were eligible. I don’t consider Arauz a high risk but agree he would be a moderate risk. Bryan Abreu is eligible but a guy with only a handful of innings in A ball would be a pretty big stretch to stick in the majors. I agree that Framber has a decent shot to get picked.
His K% dropped from 16% above league average to 4% above league average. His FIP also increased from 1.2 below league average to about equal to league average (per statcorner). I'm not saying he sucks or has been bad, but he some work to do. Not everyone can take to BC like Sandoval did.
I believe you are correct. There is no chance that the Astros would let Arauz be exposed to the draft unless they have really soured on him.
Gleyber Torres was signed in 2013 and protected last year, so that would indicate 2014 signees are fair game if they were signed before the end of the DSL season. If Abreu is up to 97 with a plus curve, that is a similar profile to Loaisiga The Yankees protected last year who hadn't even hit full season yet. Sierra does seem a longshot, but he's an athletic middle infielder with power, and the Padres took Cordoba from short season 2 years ago, so you never know.
