Right. Part of what that math also bears out is that adding Musgrove to Martes/Tucker makes it a really bad deal for Houston. But Martes/Tucker by themselves, with maybe a Chavez/Arauz ptbnl coming along with Quintana always seemed pretty fair to me.
I'm leery of the stats just because I know most of those guys have had some shot already. Of course its positive to see them doing well, but they really need to prove they're more than AAAA guys and the only way to do that is on the ML club. That's gonna be really difficult for nearly all of them to get playing time. Besides if all those guys end up getting significant looks, then the stro's season has gone terribly wrong. I also wonder if the WBC has significantly diluted the ST talent pool, resulting in better stats.
While the consensus seems to be Martes is more highly rated than Tucker, Longenhagen in the last couple of months referred to Martes as a "reliever" and said he wouldn't include Tucker in a deal for Quintana. I was expecting him to be the low man on Martes and the high man on Tucker. Just seems to be a drastic change in opinion. I highly expect Tucker to jump way up lists by midseason outside of BA's list. On the general accuracy of the lists, outside the Top 25 have a huge variance. Even if they get out-of-date quickly as Nook says, these lists have usually been very accurate (considering fickle nature of baseball) for Top 25, especially hitters. Pitchers, it is more like Top 10 as few minor league pitchers are given time in minors to show they are good and can handle MLB workload. The average 30th rated prospect in these lists just aren't that different from the 100th. I expected Tucker to crack Top 25 in more lists, but may have been too optimistic considering tough for hitters to get into Top 25 before AA much less one with an A+ park like Lancaster.
MLB.com posted an article on Houston's minor league system with quotes from one of the coordinators. Mentioned Franklin Perez, Cionel Perez, Riley Ferrell, and Framber Valdez as pitchers they were excited about. Also mentioned Yordan Alvarez, even saying he would start the season in QC, which would be a huge jump for him and a great sign. Daz Cameron was mentioned as the breakout candidate. Also, they released their top 10 farm systems yesterday and Houston was 10th. I absolutely can't wait for the minor league rosters to be released. Also surprised we haven't seen any groups of players be released yet. I would expect they'll have to cut 25-30 guys before the season starts.
Some background on the departed.... Marlon Avea was signed out of Nicaragua in 2010. Most of his playing time came in the Dominican Summer League, where he spent three years. He did have a three-game cameo with Corpus this past season. Chris Cotton was drafted in the 14th round in 2013 out of LSU. He split 2016 between Corpus and Fresno with a rehab assignment in Tri-City. You may not remember, but when the picture of the Astros' 2013 draft board popped up on the Internet, he was the guy the Astros scouts thought would really exceed expectations. Connor Goedert was a 15th-round pick out of the Kansas JUCO ranks in 2014. He started 2016 in Quad Cities but his struggles resulted in him finishing the season with Tri-City. Chris Murphy was the Astros' 24th-round pick out of Millersville, a Division II school in Pennsylvania. He spent most of 2016 with Quad Cities and was promoted to Lancaster late in the season. James Ramsay was a 7th-round pick from South Florida in 2013. He was considered to be one of the best defenders in the draft class, but he crashed to a .195/.286/.293 slash line in Corpus. David Schmidt signed with the Astros as an undrafted free agent out of Stanford in 2015. He started 2016 with a cameo in Corpus Christi but spent most of the year with Quad Cities. Angelo Serrano signed in 2015 at 23 years old. He split 2016 between Tri-City and Greeneville. Adam Whitt was drafted in the 16th round in 2015 out of Nevada. He... didn't have the best year at Quad Cities. Angel De Leon signed in 2014 out of the Dominican Republic. He drew 70 walks over the last two seasons, but that wasn't enough for him to advance out of the Dominican Summer League. Eduardo Guzman signed out of Venezuela last March and played sparingly in the DSL. Nestor Tejada signed for $300,000 out of Venezuela in 2013. He couldn't get out of the complex leagues.
Derek Fisher is officially starting to become interesting. + bat, + speed with a little power. Think he profiles as a faster Melky Cabrera.
Goedert and Tejada are the only two of those players who were even moderately thought prior to being signed. Goedert got a sizable overslot bonus. Cotton and Ramsay had some success early on. But overall no surprises here and should be a couple dozen more next week.
Seems like a win-win-win. Heineman gets a (hopefully) easier path to the majors, the Brewers get depth and the Astros have one less person to worry about getting playing time at AAA catcher. It'll be a double win if they actually get an intriguing PTBNL but I bet they end up getting cash.
If Stassi has to be added to the 25-man during the season, would he have to go back through waivers again to send him down? Only potential downside it's he was a potential good long-term, cheap option as 3rd/backup catcher.
Astros could send him down to minors without waivers as they would have to add him to 40-man to bring him up.
Fresno lineup is going to be insane. C - Stassi 1B - Reed 2B - Kemp SS - Brignac 3B - White LF - Tucker CF - Hernandez RF - Kemmer
But he doesn't have options remaining, which is why he DFA'd in the first place. Best I can tell, if we do call Stassi up again, we can't send him back down without his permission.
My guess is Moran will be the primary 3B. White will be a utility/DH guy. Also Fisher will be one of the primary outfielders, my guess is in CF. It is awful crowded, so I wonder what they plan on doing with Singleton.
At least 2 guys will have to be released or traded. No way they can carry more than 13 position players, and here are the players currently slated for AAA: C (2): Centeno, Stassi IF (8): Reed, White, Singleton, Kemp, Brignac, Moran, Davis, Mayfield OF (6): Fisher, Teoscar, P Tucker, Kemmer, Garcia, Aplin My guesses for now are that P Tucker goes on the DL, Mayfield is released/inactive, and Singleton is traded for a PTBNL/cash. White will play 2B/1B/DH, Davis will play 3B/DH, with Moran also getting some time at SS in addition to 3B. Once Tucker is fully healthy one of the outfielders will have to go, my guess would be Kemmer or Garcia being traded for cash. Or...Reed, Moran, and Fisher could be traded later this week as part of a Quintana deal. That's another potential solution.
