A lot of that money can also be off-set in playoff revenue and improved attendance revenue. Like 2015's Cole Hamels earmarked money... this is a move that should help pay dividends at the gate.
http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/251757752/astros-trade-for-pitcher-justin-verlander/ "We thought the deal was dead," Astros owner Jim Crane told MLB.com. "We had tried previously. He's a quality pitcher. I think he's excited to come. He was a little reluctant and eventually made the right decision. We got him for a couple of more years and the team's intact. "I think he'll add a dimension we don't have. He's pitched well his whole career and has been pitching well lately. I think he'll add a dimension in the playoffs, hopefully, when we get there. I think it's great for the team, I think the players will be excited and fans will be excited."
We gave up a pretty good package, a top 100 guys a fringe top 100 guy in Rogers and a former top 100 guy who may finally be living up to his promise. However that is the cost of doing business, and it's good to see Luhnow actually be able to finalize a big deal. I was getting concerned that he may be valuing his prospects too much, which would explain the lack of deals. It's not a risk free move, Verlander is 34, commands a big salary, and has been inconsistent over the last few years. But he is a proven workhorse, who has been dominating over the last 2 months. This has game changer potential not just for this year, but for the next 2 as well.
Even though this had been in the works for awhile, the surprise factor of the deal being announced late last night when all the reports had reported it dead (after the deadline had lapsed!) is almost Randy Johnson level. Nothing will top the surprise factor of that though - that was pre-internet, and out of almost nowhere the Astros traded for him and had him start a day game that same day! I first learned of that trade when I flipped on the box tv mid-game and saw Randy Johnson on the mound. I was like "whaaaaaaaaat!?"
I'd say this is the cost of backing one's self in a corner. Luhnow gambled that Keuchel and McCullers would either both be healthy or both be unhealthy at July deadline and lost. I'm not really too concerned with the prospects though I liked Perez. 40 million is probably 15-20% of Altuve's next contract.
I was getting texts from friends at 11:45 last night about this. What great timing for the team and the city. Can't wait to see the energy in the stadium tomorrow.
A POWER MOVE. Regardless if this works out or not, the team will feel these two additions and start believing they can do it (even though they probably already do). I expect some guys to not be on the roster next year (Beltran, Sipp, a few SP's, etc) but the team is STACKED for the next few years and we kept our top prospects. Great day for the city of Houston.
Or, Luhnow tried to make a deal for Verlander in July, and Verlander wasn't budging on Houston back then / we didn't get very far? Or, the cost was even higher in July, and Detroit came down a bit after waiting a month? Yes, or Luhnow truly said "no SP" in July, and changed his mind because things haven't gone like he thought they would. Hard to say.
I saw that tweet too. This Detroit Free Press writer put the tweet in context. http://www.freep.com/story/sports/m...ald-trump-justin-verlander-twitter/623944001/
I haven't heard anything about the budget next year (the Astros are VERY quiet on budget issues), however I would expect they let Beltran go ($16,000,000) and replace him with someone at a very low number (Adam Lind type signing) or replace him with someone already in the organization that costs little. Gregerson and his $6,250,000 salary will be off the books. Morton would seem like a prime candidate to move. His salary is $7,000,000 and the Astros have a number of possible fill in candidates, such as Martes that will need playing time. Obviously the Astros would love to move Sipp, but the prospect cost may be high to take on his salary ($6,000,000). Yuli Gurriel is likely movable, but he seems to be a candidate to bust out, and the Astros would have to be confident to be able to fill the hole his bat would leave. Evan Gattis is another player I could see the Astros attempt to trade, and then replace him with someone within the system. Especially if the Astros keep Gurriel and make him the full time DH (something Hinch doesn't like doing).
I think Gattis stays - he has unique value on the team being able to both be a reasonable part-time DH while covering the backup C position. Much more value than having to use a roster spot for the typical zero-offence backup C - even more important given that McCann is old. Between Gattis and MarGo being able to play basically every other position, the Astros have all sorts of solid injury protection and lineup flexibility.
The Astros have planned to increase payroll but I don't think we are going to see the floodgates open because Crane still has to turn a profit. Honestly, at this point attendance needs to pick up to show ownership that adding to the payroll can result in profits. McCullers was going to be shut down for a period of time anyway, because he was on an innings limit. Right now the Astros have a very deep rotation. If the hitting comes out of their slump, we are likely to win games at a very high rate with a rotation of: Verlander-Kuchel-McCullers-Peacock-McHugh Agreed, if the Astros are playing well, and Dallas K gets hurt; the Astros still will feel like they have a shot with an accomplished horse like Verlander. Also another angle being discussed, is similar to what we are seeing with the Cubs. Starters are VERY expensive in free agency. The Astros have locked in a top 2-3 in the rotation for this year and 2-3 more. The Cubs were interested in Verlander for that very reason.
You are likely right, I think it comes down to what his arbitration number is and how tight the budget will be. I am sure the Astros would rather keep Gattis than move him. It also will in part likely depend on what Dallas Kuechel gets in arbitration as well.
You left Fiers out of this. Thoughts there? I'm leaning more and more towards his arb # being north of $5M, and that being too rich for what he brings (insurance as a guy who can eat innings, but often not good / not super useful in the pen). So that's another $3.5M off this year's payroll.
A lot of it depends on how much the Tigers are actually giving the Astros. At first it was reported as $10,000,000 and then later it was $8,000,000 a year. Did they give anything for the remainder of this season? Do they pick up $8,000,000 if Verlander's option is picked up? The Astros gave the Tigers a good package, but all three prospects have some concerns. I love Perez' feel for the game, and his secondary pitches are very refined and he has good command. However, his fastball is questionable. He was throwing harder in the tandem situation. His fastball is very hittable when he is around 90 mph. Does he have the velocity over 6-7 innings? The fact that Perez was the one "untouchable" the Astros were trying to move (they tried to move him at the July deadline) tells me the Astros are not so sure about him either. Jake Rogers is 22 years old, and hasn't even faced AA pitching yet so the bat speed issues he had in college may not be so far behind him. Next year will tell a lot about Jake. If he can even hit 250 in the big leagues, he will be a big addition for the Tigers. However he is far from a certainty.
I think you are right on it being north of $5,000,000. It was close to $4,000,000 this year if I remember right. The Astros are not going to pay Fiers $5,000,000 to be in AAA as an emergency starter in case of injury or a long reliever. Right now the Astros have more starters than rotation spots and Fiers has to be at the bottom of the list of available starters. Also as tempting as it is to put Peacock in the bullpen next season, if he keeps pitching like he has been as a starter, he is likely to remain in the rotation because he will get more innings and good starters are very valuable. Martes is ready for a rotation spot in 2018, and he is going to get a spot unless he craters in the Spring. That doesn't even account for players like Armenteros or C. Perez that could be knocking on the door. Even with Fiers traded, I wouldn't be shocked if another starter is dealt as well. Either than or Martes back as AAA; which I cannot see them doing that simply because they don't have a spot for him. Kuchel Verlander McCullers McHugh Peacock Martes
I'm just curious how Verlander will fit into this clubhouse. No opinion either way. Does he sit in the front of the bus with all the other well known and loved Astros stars or is regulated to the back with the lesser knowns?
If they decide to let Gattis go then they probably will use Centeno as the backup C. You could do worse. Or they could trade Morton and/or Fiers to fill holes on the cheap. Good news is I expect Whitley to be ready b y the all star break next yr. Martes could also fill a hole in the rotation if needed. Bottom line is Crane stepped up to the plate and now it's time for the fans to show that they want a 1st class team longterm by showing up consistently at the ballpark. I think some of the corporations that support the Texans will spend their entertainment $$$$ on the Astros instead, especially if the Astros win the WS. This is a gamble by Crane and props to him for stepping up and bringing some sunshine in Houston's time of need. BTW, Thanks to Crane for contributing 4 mil to the hurricane relief effort. Much appreciated.
I don't see it as a gamble. The gamble was on Detroit who picked up three prospects who are unproven in the majors, for their best pitcher whose sported the third best era in the league since May. We won that trade.
