I'm on your side of the argument... But you could just as easily argue that signing Keuchel to a long-term deal when he becomes a free agent (given the amount of mileage they're likely to put on his arm right now) could also be looked at as a "bad deal". They may make a similar case against Springer and Altuve as well. If you're risk-averse to signing free agents due to every free agent bust... You could also be risk averse to signing your own guys to long-term extensions that the team will immediately start getting diminishing returns on. I agree it's foolish to spend just to spend... But I also won't hold my breath that they will look to lock up every homegrown player, once they start getting really expensive. They will use the same logic that you are right now... That the long-term deal could block future prospects, and that how often does a long-term deal on a pitcher really work out? Basically you have to resign yourself to the thinking that they're not going to keep everybody, there's always going to be a budget, and right now... Despite this team being in contention... The budget won't be radically adjusted unless a true difference-maker magically presents itself (similar to the Hamels deal last year).
I agree on Keuchel. Frankly, come 3 years from now, it will be interesting to see how we handle that. I think we will eventually offer a "bad deal" type contract (I think we are on the same page considering those deals the ones where you pay deserved money for the first 3 years but then get bent over potentially for the next 4) if we need that piece to keep the overall picture. As for Altuve, I like the deal we currently have: reevaluate in the 2019 off season which gives us time. Springer is 2021 so we will see. But, point taken. The great part is that we get to pick and choose which players we will keep due to not being handcuffed by a Jason Wurth, CC Sabathia, Zito type deal.
As a lefty with command and not a ton of power isn't it possible Dallas' contract is a good one for the entirety?
Maybe. But the possibility of him pulling a Fister is more likely. Lose 2-3mph and Keuchel is in trouble.
Agree with this. I expect Astros to try harder to keep the position players than Keuchel. I think Astros try to keep him, but another team will likely offer a long enough contract so that Keuchel will still be on books when Correa becomes a FA. I can't see Astros affording Correa and Keuchel at the same time.
I highly expect them to lock up the cornerstone players far before they actually reach their arbitration/free agency year based on when they were called up. I would be shocked if they don't lock in Correa to a Mike Trout-like contract...which still has him hitting free agency during prime years, but he will be under control longer and at a fixed rate.
Many "believed" we made an error drafting Correa so high, instead they said Buxton was the "correct" choice, well, i am sure of one thing, i am not disappointed in our "choice" at all.
Regarding Crane, I don't think he's owned the team long enough nor have we have been through a true good/bad team cycle to say definitively that he's cheap when it comes to signing players. All we've seen is a tear down and rebuild, so of course it'll look like he's cheap. We're also in the enviable position of having true talent in the minors that could fill some of the holes on the roster. Fast forward 2 years...let's say we still have holes at 3B and C and good FAs are available. If we're still knocking on the door to the World Series and signing a Moustakas or Posey type of FA gets us over the hump, and we miss signing them because Crane won't pay the extra $2MM it would take to sign them, then I think it's justifiable to say he's being cheap. Right now it's just too early, IMO. Seeing how they handle our players internally will also go a long way to determining if he's cheap or not. Keuchel or Correa leaving over money would be a PR nightmare for the team. Hopefully they've had enough PR nightmares and won't allow that to happen.
I hope the reluctance to sign in FA is due to confidence in our prospects. I suspect that it is. Moran and Reed have been hyped with their spring performances. I think where we missed out on was signing an outfielder, to be honest. I know Colby signed the 15 mil qualifying offer, but I think we should have signed Heyward or Justin Upton. Next year Colby and Go Go will likely leave, and we don't have a Reed-like prospect waiting in the wings to take over LF and CF.
huh? I don't think it would make sense to: -sign a FA like that to push Colby and Gomez into platoon roles and push Marisnick to never playing -further limit the chances of seeing another prospect this year (by solidifying Tucker into the DH glut) All for having an OF *next* year. When we could just as easily scour the FA market in the offseason...ideally coming off 2 good years, making this place an even more attractive place to play. (And potentially with a final read on where Marisnick might go.) Also don't forget the trade deadline this year if there is actually a need for this year or next.
Agreed on Correa, would be nice for the Astros to lock him up to be the centerpiece for the next 10 years, and I think they will. Springer is locked up to be an Astro through his age 30 season - I don't see the Astros putting the money on the table to lock him up long term after that, as his best years will be behind him. And he's already rejected the Astros offer of decent money in exchange for a couple years of his free agency years. Altuve is locked up through 2019, and I doubt the Astros offer him huge money after that, for the same reason they won't offer Springer big money after his best years are behind him. Keuchel - no way I see him resigning here, some desperate team will be foolish enough to sign him to a Mike Scherzer-type contract.
Fair points, but the 2017 free agent class is much weaker next year. We have a glut, so package and trade. Lucroy would be a great option and fill a need, for example.
But the glut, as you started your point with, is based on 2 players (Rasmus* and Gomez) who have 1 year left. Those guys will fetch less than they're worth to you on the trade market because of that. Or you'd have to move Springer or Marisnick, which puts you in the same position next year that you started this suggestion with (an OF need in the coming offseason). Lucroy isn't coming over for veteran OFs on a 1 year deal--nor do those OFs help the Brewers in any way. (*I also don't know if Rasmus can be traded after accepting the qualifying offer. Seems like there might be a restriction there based on how other sports operate, but I have no clue with this particular contract type.)
Trout will still make 33 million in what would have been his first FA season if he didn't sign the contract. The benefit of a Trout like deal is that you don't have post peak years at 25+ million per year. Whether Correa signs a Trout like deal or waits to FA, he is still going to be paid a lot in what would be his first FA year.
It would need Rasmus's consent for a trade before June 15. After that, Astros can trade him like any other player.
Of course he will be. But signing him earlier does curtail the potential for inflation-related spikes. Sounds like you don't believe they'll ever have two highly paid players on the roster at the same time... I believe they can and will consider it if it's needed to give this team the best chance to remain in contention. Their payroll is still abnormally low for this market.
Sounds like you are reading more into my comment than is there. I don't think Astros can have ~60 million (could be on small side) devoted to Keuchel and Correa when other guys need money as well. If Keuchel wasn't a pitcher that will be over 30 by the time Correa is making money, it would be hugely different. Springer will need about 20+ if he stays healthy. I think Correa is going to be an MVP or really close at some point. Astros likely are going to have safer options to spend money than on Keuchel. Angels have a huge payroll, the best player on the best contract, and still are likely worse than the Astros because they spent on risky guys.
Don't forget, though. There will be a push from the city to keep the core together that just won us back to back to back World Series. Also, don't forget the fact that Carlos Correa will be coming off of a Dancing With The Stars/Bachelor combo show that made him the heart throb of most female fans thus putting him ahead of mid 2000s Brad Ausmus. Keuchel's beard may also be looking for a contract of its own.
Here's the official 8 gone. White gonna be the starting 1B, Pena wins the backup C job. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Astros roster moves. 8 gone. Optioned or reassigned: Sclafani, Buchanan, Heineman, Singleton, Feliz, Reed, Valdes, Perez.</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/714512088031490048">March 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gattis said he will begin his season at AA Corpus Christi if plan stays the same.</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/714515513016193025">March 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> 25 man and OD starters seem to be pretty much locked in except for Duffy/Moran (90% sure it will be Duffy) and Wandy/Straily. Altuve Springer Correa Rasmus Gomez Tucker Valbuena White Castro MarGo Marisnick Duffy/Moran Pena
