Would he really? Dave Cameron at Fangraphs thinks Braun has negative trade value. I don't know if I'd go so far to say it is negative, but it can't be very high once you consider his age and contract versus production. Dave Cameron Chat
Yea if the team trading for him is taking on ALL of the contract, it wouldn't take much to get him I don't think. More likely Milwaukee picks up part of the note in order to get a better package
Brauns value is hard to peg; guessing aging curves is hard enough, but valuing the PED history makes it a lot more difficult. I think he's probably going to be worth the contract. If he continued to rake and was a free agent this offseason, he'd probably get more than $76M/4yrs. Maybe not a ton more, but more. I would be ok giving up the package I described above, but wouldn't want to give up much more than that unless Milwaukee was eating a lot of money.
Didn't Braun also have a year off. If that didn't effect him negatively, its probably going to effect him positively. Think of all the wear and tear he avoided by getting to sit out a season. I agree with what you said and am definitely interested in Braun depending on the package. When is the trade deadline again ? Im glad we have a bit more time to evaluate our current outfield. Im all for giving Rasmus a chance to bounce back. This tiny two game sample size of Gomez with glasses also is a bit interesting lol.
Astros get: RHP Chris Archer Rays get: RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. RHP Francis Martes OF Derek Fisher 3B Colin Moran IF MiguelAngel Sierra Probably not enough, but most Astros fans would probably say too much. TB has 8 viable MLB SP on their roster and Archer is having a down year. I assume they'd demand Bregman as the headliner for any deal for Archer.
he's on a team that's playing pretty well and in the thick of the wild card race. why would they trade him?
Is there another Chris Archer I don't know about? The one from Tampa has been average at best this year?
I think he'd be a good add if Houston lost an OF due to injury or trade, and if Miami fell out of the race and was willing to give him up for a throw-in type prospect. He is 42 and sporting a .370 BABIP. That said, even after regression he is still going to be a good OB guy that would help balance/lengthen Houston's lineup.
He has been very unlucky on batted balls (inflated BABIP and HR/FB). His underlying numbers are in line with previous seasons. Over 644 IP, he's been worth 10.9 fWAR. He's a star level performer whos 27 and under contract at a very low salary thru 2022.
He's their 4th OF when healthy. Any trade suggestion on my part is speculative this early in the season. With the absurd parity in the MLB, we don't know who sellers are outside of ATL, MIL, PHI, and maybe another team or two. That said, if MIA starts to slip, Ichiro is not in their future (Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich), so maybe they move him for the right price Yup. Would compliment our lineup very well.
A lot of uncertainty on aging curve, but my best guess is that he's worth about -36 million mostly due to his last 2 years (35-36 years old) projected to be minimal production (<1 WAR) while counting 38 million dollars (including buyout). Only 1 hitter had more than minimal production last year at the age of 35 or over that wasn't significantly better in their prime than Braun. Whether he ages poorly or well doesn't really matter as it'll probably take something in the range of 24-44 million dollars to allow a team (not counting Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox) to take the risk on Braun without giving up anything.
Seems like the buyers and sellers are shaking out. The Rockies, Pirates, White Sox, and Yankees are probably on the fence but I think everyone else's strategy is pretty solidified. The biggest question is the degree to which the sellers sell. Will Arizona shop Goldschmidt and Greinke? Will the Rays sell on Longoria, Archer, and others? As for Houston, I think they will shop Valbuena, Feldman, and Neshek, 3 pending free agents who are almost certainly not worth a qualifying offer, who have ready replacements in the minors, and who are likely to have some value to other contending teams. I'd like to see them try and extend Rasmus and Castro, and if they don't bite on an affordable 2-3 year deal, hang on to them and hope they have a 2nd half good enough to justify a QO. Fister is worth hanging on to, and currently projects to be worth a QO, so unless a team offers a drastic overpay (multiple Top 100 prospects), I think they'll hang on to him. The way Gomez has played the last few weeks puts him in the same boat; unless a team overpays, hang on to him and hope he plays well enough to justify an easily-rejected QO. I don't think any other player will be traded unless they are part of a bigger deal. McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, Feliz, and Devenski all could be a part of a package for an ace. As far as buying, I think Houston will be involved in talks for any available big bat or ToR SP that isn't a rental. Sellers that might deal with Houston: Twins: Mauer, Santana, Hughes Angels: Trout, Pujols, Calhoun, Richards A's: Valencia, Vogt, Reddick, Davis, Gray Braves: Freeman, Inciarte, Teheran Brewers: LuCroy, Braun Reds: Votto, Bruce DBacks: Goldschmidt, Peralta, Pollock, Greinke, Corbin Padres: Myers, Kemp, Norris, Ross Rays: Longoria, Guyer, Jennings, Kiermeier, Dickerson, Archer, Smyly, Cobb, Moore, Odorizzi Houston can afford to trade some prospects, but they don't have the glut they had prior to last season. But their competitive window is open and there is definitely an argument that they need to make big moves in order to capitalize on the primes of Springer/Correa/Altuve.
The Twins' Hughes has a broken bone in his leg. I would find in extremely unlikely the Angels trade the best player in the league.
You're just a ray of sunshine. Yes, it is extremely unlikely that Trout is traded. But they have been pretty stupid in the past and if they were to shop him, Houston is on a relatively short list of teams that would have the young talent and payroll flexibility to be in the conversation. Didnt catch the seriousness of Hughes' injury, so yes, take him off the list.
I think we have plenty of prospect depth to make deals, just shouldn't move the top 4-5 guys, everyone else should be in play in the right deal. Luhnow today said he has some guys he would like to move up, specifically mentioning Bregman and Paulino, but said there is no room for them right now at AAA and most important thing is to keep their playing time up. Also said that he doesn't necessarily think players have to go to AAA before coming to the bigs, that he would have no problem moving guys from AA to the MLB Having said all of that, wouldn't surprise me at all to see us make some mid level moves, not necessarily going after the top guys available, but maybe a couple of mid level guys for some mid level prospects. From a high end standpoint, we aren't one of the top farm systems around. From a prospect depth standpoint, we are probably still as good as any
I think mid-level moves would be a waste of time and a half-measure that points to Luhnow trying to get cute. Anyone they acquire needs to represent a meaningful upgrade from the players currently in the system. Any OF the trade for needs to be head and shoulders better than Rasmus, a guy they could likely re-sign pretty easily this offseason. Any pitcher they get needs to be better than Fiers or Fister, since those are the level of guys they can get without having to make a trade or hurt the farm. The team will be good in 2017 even if they stand pat; it will likely be better than this year's team due to additions like Bregman, Reed, Musgrove, etc. If they're going to make a move, it needs to be big enough to move the needle.
