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2016 Iowa caucus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by justtxyank, Feb 1, 2016.

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  1. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    probably knows he'd get rubbed out before ever possibly winning the nomination anyways
     
  2. dandorotik

    dandorotik Member

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    And you honestly think Trump will be any different? Wow. He'd kowtow to them even more so.
     
  3. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Member

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    What hard work has he done? All he does is say insulting things, which in turns gets all the sound bytes. He has offered no solution to anything.
    If you truly want different, you would support Sanders. Sometimes different is not always better, even if your campaign is "hope and change".
     
  4. jev5555

    jev5555 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Thank you Iowa!
     
  5. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Member

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    You're on the right track baby! Don't let the smoke and mirrors fool you - the barracuda strikes, when the barracuda needs to eat. Voting for Trump is a triumph for the big picture, big minded individuals of today. Don't be a minority in intelligence, and go with the man who has a track record of success outside of politics.
     
  6. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    I heard this also this morning. He seems pissed and said he's not going anywhere. He actually believed he would have done much better if not for this. LOL.

     
  7. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sticker guy stole the show behind Hillary <a href="https://t.co/eaZ5rK7auJ">pic.twitter.com/eaZ5rK7auJ</a></p>&mdash; CJ Fogler (@cjzero) <a href="https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/694386555666993152">February 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
  8. rage

    rage Member

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    You don't need to be intelligent to support Trump. (And I can show you many more proofs of the numbers)

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/09/09/who_are_trumps_supporters.html
     
  9. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    That's where I'm holding out hope I guess. If there is an establishment wing and an insurgent wing, at least Rubio will have the establishment wing all to himself once Bush and Kasich drop. No way Cruz or Trump will ever admit defeat before the very end, so they'll continue to split the anti-establishment vote for the whole primary.

    Free USPS service for life.

    I would totally believe Cruz would do that.
     
  10. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"
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    This has been reported by a couple of different sources now. Several Carson voters said they were told on their way into caucuses, by Cruz supporters, that Carson had dropped out.

    I mean, it would be devilishly logical for Cruz, since Carson's biblical literalist supporters would then naturally go to the next most religiously extreme (alleged) Christian in the race.

    All will be fair in this primary war.
     
  11. justtxyank

    justtxyank Member

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    Here is Steve King's twitter post:

    Carson looks like he is out. Iowans need to know before they vote. Most will go to Cruz, I hope. https://t.co/lW5Js50EMA
    — Steve King (@SteveKingIA) February 2, 2016
     
  12. bnb

    bnb Member

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    still very early for a Kasich/Christie drop. They weren't expected to do well in Iowa (though sub 2% is about as low as you can go). Tough to think Bush has much upside though given his early expectations.

    I don't expect the not-quite-so-crazy contingent to consolidate until it's more clear whether Trump is starting to implode and the impact of that, and whether Cruz has the staying power beyond the early primaries and can weather the criticisms when out of Trumps shadow.
     
  13. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I expect both Kasich and Christie to stay in through New Hampshire, but if they don't show well there, they probably give up. Honestly everyone who didn't finish in the top half SHOULD suspend their campaigns but I understand why they aren't.
     
  14. justtxyank

    justtxyank Member

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    I don't agree that they should suspend. Not in a field that crowded.

    The only people who should suspend are anyone who ran as a social conservative who didn't crack the top 5.

    Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum should drop out.

    Kasich and Christie didn't even try in Iowa because of the nature of the electorate not representing the rest of the important states going forward.

    After New Hampshire the bottom 2 establishment guys need to drop out or they are just hurting the party. Whether the second place establishment guy needs to or not depends on who it is.

    This is an unusual year because there are so many candidates. The finishes can be different state to state. If the Republican establishment is smart it will pressure the establishment guys to all drop after NH except the top guy so that they can try to take South Carolina as the sole establishment guy up against three outsiders.
     
  15. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Well if Kasich and Christie don't finish in the top 4 in New Hampshire (there's 9 major candidates now instead of 10), they might as well call it quits. New Hampshire is where candidates like Kasich and Christie should thrive, if they can't do well there, they have no chance.
     
  16. bnb

    bnb Member

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    You think? I think it's still too early. NH is not a representative state either.

    Carson looks like he's done. (and Ted says he's quitting!) Trump is a wildcard and Cruz is.....well, Cruz. If Trump implodes, I'm not sure where his support goes. (or, for that matter, where does Carson's support go? Not necessarily to Trump/Cruz). I feel Bush is the only one significantly under performing expectations...so I'd like him to drop. But maybe his team still feels he's the most palatable once they all start to get attention.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we're be a lot closer to March 1 before there's a true purge of the ranks.
     
  17. justtxyank

    justtxyank Member

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    Agree completely.

    Kasich has bet everything on New Hampshire. He needs to finish at least 4th to be viable, but honestly a 4th place finish is probably not good enough. For Christie or Jeb, a 4th place finish likely keeps them in the race, Jeb for sure.
     
  18. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Well currently in the polls Kasich is 3rd and Bush is 4th....but Rubio is 5th and I think he could see some extra support coming off his success in Iowa so it wouldn't surprise me to see him surpass both Bush and Kasich. Christie is a distant 6th place in New Hampshire according to polls so he better do a lot of work or GREATLY over perform his poll numbers or it's over.
     
  19. justtxyank

    justtxyank Member

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    It's not a representative state, but if establishment guys can't show strongly in New Hampshire they need to accept that it only gets worse.

    I don't think Jeb will drop out because he is stubborn and still believes he can win Florida.

    Kasich though will be dead if he can't do well in New Hampshire.

    The reason they SHOULD drop out is because they have opportunity to kill the anti-establishment wing. You go into South Carolina (where Carson is playing strong) and you could see those three split their own "base" and an establishment guy could win the state. That would be an enormous win going into Nevada and then ultimately Super Tuesday.

    He is, but he isn't really until after South Carolina. He's invested a lot in South Carolina and barely even appeared in New Hampshire at all. He'll wait until after South Carolina before he gives up. He's hoping for a Gingrich surge.

    It may happen that way, but it's a big mistake for the establishment. That will help Trump or Cruz win the nomination.
     
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    This is hilarious.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-fresh-clothes_us_56b005ffe4b057d7d7c7f47f


    During Critical Campaign Period, Ben Carson Heads Home To Get Fresh Clothes

    Are there no washing machines in Iowa?





    These first two weeks of February are critical for presidential candidates, who are rushing between Iowa and New Hampshire to get in as much face time with voters as possible.

    Ben Carson, however, is taking a break.

    His campaign announced that he will leave Iowa on Monday night and head to Florida to get some clean clothes. His aides said he was not ending his faltering presidential bid.

    CNN reported that Carson was expected to speak to supporters at his Iowa party before the full caucus results were in, so he could catch his flight home.

    Flying to Florida is a long trip to simply do laundry or grab some clean clothes from his closet. Other options would have been for Carson to wash his clothes in Iowa or stop at a nearby store to pick up some new items.

    After receiving a burst of support in November, Carson's prominence has waned. During recent GOP debates, he has mostly received attention for appearing to be asleep.

    Some candidates who have struggled to gain ground in Iowa -- former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, for example -- are already in New Hampshire and holding events there. Most others are heading to the state on Tuesday and resuming campaigning.


    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/jaketapper">@jaketapper</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RealBenCarson">@RealBenCarson</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/moody">@moody</a> Dr Carson has been on the road for 17 days needs fresh clothes. Back on the trail by Wednesday</p>&mdash; Jason Osborne (@Jmrhosborne) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jmrhosborne/status/694330825215774720">February 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     

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