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2016 General Election Polling Thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Carl Herrera, Jul 30, 2016.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WaPo-ABC Poll finds Clinton has widened lead ahead of Trump to 8 points, via <a href="https://twitter.com/danbalz">@danbalz</a> &amp; <a href="https://twitter.com/sfcpoll">@sfcpoll</a> <a href="https://t.co/KI6QMONeYH">https://t.co/KI6QMONeYH</a></p>&mdash; John Wagner (@WPJohnWagner) <a href="https://twitter.com/WPJohnWagner/status/762138593766715393">August 7, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    More:

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Those numbers are consistent with this being a status quo election <a href="https://t.co/PYjOiVV75T">https://t.co/PYjOiVV75T</a></p>&mdash; Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) <a href="https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/762153110416584704">August 7, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
    #81 Carl Herrera, Aug 6, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2016
  2. Amiga

    Amiga 10 years ago...
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    538 now shows Clinton 83.4 % to Trump 16.5 % chance of winning. This top the previous high of 80/20 split back in June.
     
  3. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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  4. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    It's hilarious to see conservatives suddenly fans of wiki leaks after bashing it during the Snowden incident
     
  5. Amiga

    Amiga 10 years ago...
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    Among groups, that post conventions ABC/WP poll shows where the Dem ticket made their biggest gain.

    +7 Not-Trump GOP supporters
    +8 Dem
    +8 College grads
    +8 Moderate
    +9 Women
    +10 <$50K
    +12 Sanders supporters
    +14 Red States
    +16 College Grads Women
    +25 Catholic

    Clinton also gain among all older age groups (+15 for 65+plus, +8 for 50-64, +10 for 40+). Trump gain +16 for 30-39, +10 for 40-49. 18-29 did not change. Kind of a surprise here.

    Trump biggest gain is among Non-Evangelical White (+23).

    Favorable remains the same for both post conventions. Unfavorable slightly change (+3 for Clinton, +5 for Trump)

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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  7. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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  8. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Guys, can any of you give me one logical answer to my question.

    What evidence do you have that makes you think Clinton will win - besides polls? The polls are skewed, I'm a statistical expert, and Clinton is DONE. Make America GREAT again!
     
    1 person likes this.
  9. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    Were you on the Romney's stat team?:grin:
     
  10. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    It's getting ugly.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. mtbrays

    mtbrays Contributing Member
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    I, for one, hope to see a random Johnson blip up to 0.2 or even 0.3.
     
  12. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    There has to be a 2-3% chance Trump and Clinton both have to drop out for myriad of reasons.
     
  13. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Recent polling has Trump with a small but solid lead in the critical swing state of South Carolina - 41-39
     
  14. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    JoPat? bbholic? Is that you?
     
  15. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    We need some Unskewed Polls.
     
  16. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Ready for the annual "Nate Silver is is gay" innuendo.
     
  17. marky :)

    marky :) Member

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    GIGO!

    Model will fail because of bad data. Garbage in garbage out.
     
  18. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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  19. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    LOL when was the last South Carolina blue? Oh that was 1976 fifty years ago. This could go down as the biggest ass whooping ever in history.
     
  20. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    This country is too F'd up to vote a bad candidate out. There will be no Johnson nor Reagan type victory. Although if there were a better Dem than Hillary perhaps that could be close to happening.

    It will be a landslide it looks like though at least electorally. With states like Oklahoma, Tenn, WV, Wyoming, LA, Miss, SD,ND, Alabama still voting for the joke that is Trump. Otherwise landslide though.
     

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