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2016 General Election Polling Thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Carl Herrera, Jul 30, 2016.

  1. Deji McGever

    Deji McGever יליד טקסני

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    Wait a second...were you at the secret meeting too?!
     
  2. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Yep, the Monday night Google Hangout that we do after WWE Raw every week.
     
  3. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    Guys if everyone knows about it, it isn't secret anymore
     
  4. Brando2101

    Brando2101 Contributing Member

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    This is FiveThirtyEight's breakdown of the most recent polls along with their adjustments with respect to the economy and historical data. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will likely decide the election...again.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 Brando2101, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  5. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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  6. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Clinton leading Trump in the most reliably Republican state in US <a href="https://t.co/G6BWwr5RJB">https://t.co/G6BWwr5RJB</a></p>&mdash; Jon Passantino (@passantino) <a href="https://twitter.com/passantino/status/760335418977943553">August 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Something I caught a few days ago but kind of brushed off: Bill Clinton to campaign in Utah on Aug 11. <a href="https://t.co/DB0s2KeGmw">https://t.co/DB0s2KeGmw</a></p>&mdash; Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760338800216244229">August 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
    #26 Carl Herrera, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
  7. plcmts17

    plcmts17 Member
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    Several states have stayed consistently blue and red in the polls over the last 6 months. And even though Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania along with Michigan and North Carolina get a lot of coverage due to their big number of electoral votes, the states that I believe will make the most difference are Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia. None of these states has more than 15 electoral votes, but they are all in play and total 48 electoral votes. If Hillary were to win these states, of the remaining big 5 states that are also in play, all she would need is Florida to win the Presidency. Of course if she didn't win Florida, but 2 of the other big 5, no matter what the combination, she would still win the Presidency.
     
  8. across110thstreet

    across110thstreet Contributing Member

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    This is what I was talking about. When you say the pluralized form of zionist it almost sounds the same coming out of a mouth breather.

    But there is indeed an "s" at the end
     
  9. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    you seem super excited about Hillary becoming president Carl
     
  10. JeffB

    JeffB Contributing Member

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    More like super excited at Trump not becoming president.
     
  11. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    The story of the election right here.
     
  12. adoo

    adoo Member

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    u mean Trump's Jewish in-laws ?
     
  13. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    Plus 71 with non-whites, plus 23 with women. That's a victory right there.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...rumps-convention-looks-like-it-was-a-failure/

    The change before and after the conventions among key demographic groups:

    Whites, before the conventions: plus-13 for Trump. After: plus-14 for Trump.

    Nonwhites, before: plus-48 for Clinton. After: plus-71 for Clinton.

    Men, before: plus-3 for Trump. After: plus-7 for Trump.

    Women, before: plus-14 for Clinton. After: plus-23 for Clinton.

    White college graduates, before: plus-1 for Trump. After: plus-10 for Clinton.

    White non-college graduates, before: plus-19 for Trump. After: plus-26 for Trump.
     
  14. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    I disagree - If trump sweeps Virginia, Ohio, and Florida - he will be the next president.

    If he loses one of those, he will not.

    It's really that simple. Pay attention to those three. People will say what about Nevada and such, but to overcome what happens with the above 3 states, it will take many many states to change which is highly unlikely. It's highly unlike that Hillary will lose Virginia, Ohio, and Florida and yet flip Utah and win Nevada for instance while holding on to NH which would give her 272.
     
  15. Major

    Major Member

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    She doesn't need to flip anything to win even if she loses VA, OH, and FL. She'd still have 272 EVs with a fairly conventional map (same as 2012).

    <div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/PpmZ9"><img src="http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/PpmZ9.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="http://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/PpmZ9">270toWin.com</a></small></div>
     
  16. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    What are the odds she loses Virginia anyway?
     
  17. Camarograna2

    Camarograna2 Contributing Member

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    Curious to see how the polls were taken. If via phone calls i wouldn't pay too much attention to polls. Usually they are calling people with house phones and that answer unknown calls which is the old people. The young don't answer unknown calls and they sure dont have house phones or phones listed.
     
  18. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    Get this garbage outta here!!!

    Does anyone have jopat's statistical breakdown of how the election will actually turn out? I found out that his bballholic NBA rumors subscription newsletter is different from his jopat election results predictor newsletter, both having separate subscription fees.
     
  19. Major

    Major Member

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    You do understand there is a science behind polling and they know this stuff, right? Or did you think you're the only one who knows the demographics of who answers home phones, etc, and people just build a gigantic industry without knowing what they are doing? :confused:
     
  20. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member
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    Trump's not getting Virginia.
     

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