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2016 Draft: QB Progress Watch

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Honey Bear, Oct 9, 2015.

  1. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    I don't know much about college football or the draft class, but i'd love to see us finally make a risky move into the top 5 or w/e is needed to land a legitimate stud QB prospect. Whether thats feasible or makes sense this year, I don't know, but I'd love to see a risky move to get that QB.
     
  2. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    The problem is that none of these guys are really "legit stud" prospects. They're OK and one or two might pan out, but it's not like they're Luck or Winston or Mariota, guys who are almost assuredly going to be good.
     
    1 person likes this.
  3. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Member
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    Problem is uncertainty at the top of the draft. Cleveland seems almost certain to take a QB at 2; otherwise... will someone jump to 1? What will Sand Diego and/or Dallas do at 3 and 4? They could both use an heir apparent, which means the path to a QB leads through Tennessee (#1 overall), who's probably going to extract three pounds a flesh to deal intra-division.

    If the guy the Texans like is still on the board at 6, I could see a deal with Baltimore being plausible - but are they jacking up the price leveraging SF possibly wanting a QB?...
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    [​IMG]
    That always works
     
  5. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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    getting Elliot and Hackenberg would be ideal, but Hack's stock could rise such that we can't wait until 2nd round
     
  6. Dubious

    Dubious Member

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    Trading up for a QB is so risky. You would have to trade a couple of your #1's or your 1,2 &3 this year. If you do and draft a bust, you have hamstrung your team development for years. I would say to do it, you would have to be pretty confident of your 53 man roster you have right now.

    Are we?
     
  7. rezdawg

    rezdawg Member

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    Well, we've had plenty of misses in previous drafts, so I wouldnt say its that big of a risk.

    This is the year where we will have plenty of cap dollars to spend on free agents, both short term and long term. If we need to plug someone in for a year to make up for the loss in a 3rd round draft pick, it will be easy to do.

    The QB is the position that NEEDS to be fixed and we can only fix it by going balls to the wall. Im open to drafting two QBs in this draft. It's that important.
     
  8. Chilly_Pete

    Chilly_Pete Member

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    I like Prescott a lot.
     
  9. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    I know the video is mainly talking about how he's doing good things despite crappy output, but it's still funny that it takes 12 1/2 minutes before you actually see him complete a pass.
     
  10. Two Sandwiches

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    No comprende?


    Bills didn't trade up for Manuel...

    ...in fact, didn't they trade down...

    In all honesty, that trade was a washout that the Bills won, if anything. Without that trade, the Bills don't get McCoy.
     
    #1110 Two Sandwiches, Jan 27, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2016
  11. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Nay. Believe it or not. I've actually become a big fan of college football maybe 4-5 years ago. I really like the excitement of trying to nail down exactly what type of player they will plck. This year we have more than usual info to go on. Cardale is no superstar by any means, but he does change the dynamic of our team. For the better.
     
  12. Buck Turgidson

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    How so?
     
  13. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Because of the uproar over our QB situation. Even the owner has spoken up.
    Also, imo, I think we should look to this draft to replace Foster.
     
  14. Buck Turgidson

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    But what "info" that we have "more" of are you talking about?
     
  15. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    So you want to draft Cardale Jones to replace Foster? I think he's more of a TE than a RB.
     
  16. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    Basically you have to trade away between two and three years worth of top picks to get much higher from 22 than 10ish. The Texans wanted basically 3 firsts plus sweetener when the Bills wanted to go from 6 to 1, and there wasn't even a top QB that year. Also, the closer to the top you get the steeper the price gets.

    I could see them move up around to arround 15 or 10 or so. I think anything higher than that and they'd be paying a "desperation" price, like Ricky Williams or RGIII - the kind of move that you keep paying back on installments for several future draft. If those desperation moves don't work out, it doesn't bother the coach that his team is screwed in the draft for three or four years, because the coach is so close to being fired, that he's going to be fired well before the bill even starts to comes due.

    So if they move much above 15, you should start to worry. If that type of trade doesn't work out 100% in favor of the team paying to move up, it is always an unmitigated disaster.

    If they move in to the top five, IMO, it is like betting your entire wad on a single number on blackjack. WAY too risky to throw all of your bank into one spin of the wheel.

    But, from what I can tell, there is a decent chance that moving up to around 10 could give them a chance at the #2 QB on the board. Cleveland should be thinking about a QB at #2, but teams like Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Miami are pretty set. SF picked their coach because he was willing to stick with Kapernick... maybe San Diego, Dallas, or Baltimore think about drafting a young guy to pair with their aging QB, but dropping a top 10 pick on an insurance policy seems like pretty pricey insurance.

    I think if you could get to 10, and maybe keep it quiet until right before the pick is announced you should be able to get your pick of the QB's, minus one of them. (I think if on pick 5, it is announced that the Texans and Giants are making a swap of picks, everybody will know what the Texans are trading up for, and it will be time for teams picking 6-9 to cash in on an overpriced trade with someone who wants one of the QB's.)

    Basically, the closer you get to #1, the more expensive it becomes for each slot moved.

    Here is the "Jimmy Johnson" Draft Pick Value Chart:

    http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

    So, pick #1 overall is worth 3000 points. Texans 1st round pick (22 overall) is worth 780, second round pick (51 overall) is worth 390, and third rounder (85 overall) is worth 165. 3000 is significantly greater than 1335 (780+390+165) that the Texans' first three picks add up to. In fact, it's not even half way there, and (though this chart doesn't specifically enumerate it) the chart provides a significant discount to picks in future years, so to move up all the way to 1, you are probably talking something like 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks this year, the year after, and the year after that - 3 years of 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks.

    That isn't going to happen. That would be gross negligence by the GM.
     
    #1116 Ottomaton, Jan 27, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2016
  17. chow_yun_fat

    chow_yun_fat Member

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    The Texans turned that down? I didn't know they were that incompetent.... 3 first rounders or even 2 plus sweeteners would seal the deal for me.
     
  18. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    As I remember it, that that was what the Texans wanted, and the Bills laughed it off because there was no discount for no QB.

    I want to say it the Bills were talking about 2 2nds, or something like that to swap firsts but my memory may be faulty. Rick Smith did let it be known that he was only trading out of #1 overall for "full price".
     
  19. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    It's what the Texans wanted, not what the Bills offered.
     
  20. rezdawg

    rezdawg Member

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    Our #1 + Clowney + 3rd rounder.

    Trade up into top 7.
     

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