In that scenario they'd go in the second. In reality, Goff and at least two of those four will go in the first. If there's less than three QBs taken in the first round, I'd be shocked. Too many teams need one, and these guys have enough tools to be alight reaches in the first round. Plus, it's not the best year, in general.
The Texans would be incredibly stupid if they sit there at #22 and say "Hey, only one QB has been taken so far so instead of taking the guy we want, we should wait another 30 picks and take who's left over."
Except they have a trade in place to shoot to the top of the 2nd round. Similar to what the Vikings did with Bridgewater. None of the teams that pick after the Texans need a QB. If only one QB has been picked by 22 and they are really interested and they don't see much difference between Cook/Wentz/Lynch/Hack, I would pick Elliot at 22 and get one of the remaining QBs in the 2nd. The drop off after the top two RBs is more steep than the drop off after the top two QBs.
LOL, if that happens, then we are all wasting our time as fans of this team. I honestly don't know how to react to something like that happening.
... versus taking Ezekiel Elliott (as an example) and getting 4/5 years of allstar performance from him.
And risk a team trading up to the end of the first round, much like the Vikings did with Bridgewater? (He was the last pick of the first round)
If there is a guy they really like then they'll get them, if there isn't a guy they like.....much like the Bridgewater situation, they'll pick someone else and let a different team trade up if they want to.
I'm not saying that the Vikings jumped us from Bridgewater. I'm saying if there's a quarterback you like, and you take someone else at 22, you risk a team beating you to the jump and getting in front of you for that quarterback. Why would you risk that? Running back is the most plug and play position in the league. If you think you have a quarterback that could lead the franchise for ten years, don't get cute for 4 or 5 years production from a running back.
If they don't see much difference between Lynch/Cook/Hack/Wentz, you absolutely do that. One team may move to the bottom of the 2nd round, maybe even two. But no way 3 teams do so. You could have Elliott and Lynch/Cook/Hack/Wentz vs Wentz and Paul Perkins (RB available in the 2nd).
I'm agreeing with you. I don't think if there is a QB we like that we'd pass on them, and I don't think we've done that in the past. In fact, we've shown a willingness to trade up to get players if we like them. If the Texans don't like this QB class and are fine with whoever they bring in as a FA, I could see them taking a RB in the first.
Where the problem arises is when the opinion of the fanbase and draftniks is wildly different than that of the team. When that happens, you have fans thinking that player X is the next great QB and if the team doesn't share that valuation, they pass on them.
I agree. And I see what you're saying Nimo. I just feel like there'll be someone in particular we'll want (and not necessarily Hackenberg), and McNair will insist on us drafting them. In my dream world, a few players fall, and we end up with out first three rounds looking like this: 1. Carson Wentz 2. OJ Howard 3. Devontae Booker
Yes. Elliott is definitely more of a sure thing and will probably be better at football that whatever QB we choose, but: 1) We're unlikely to be in a position to pick a "sure thing" QB anytime soon. Whenever in a position to choose a QB, we'll almost always be presented with a player from another position that's more likely to pan out. And "sure things" aren't always sure things. At the time S'ua Filo was more of a sure thing than Carr, but I think most would agree now that it would've been better to go with the QB. Clowney was much more of a sure thing than Bortles but thus far, I think we'd all take the first 2 years of Bortles over the first 2 years of Clowney. How that plays out down the road remains to be seen. 2) We're unlikely to be in position where we (basically) have our choice of QBs. This is under the scenario where only one QB has been chosen before our pick. Now if Goff, Lynch, and Wentz are all gone then yeah, I'm more than OK with taking Elliott. But for a QB needy team, when presented with an opportunity to choose almost any QB you want, it's hard to pass that up. 3) QB is more important than RB. We have the best defensive player on the planet and he helps a lot, but we're limited because we don't have a QB. We had a (mostly) healthy Arian Foster in 2014 but we were still limited because of the QB. I'd love to have Elliott, but if we have our choice of QB, I'd rather take the chance that we could have a franchise QB for 10-15 years than a star RB for 5 or 6.
I don't study the nfl like the nba. But it seems to me it is increasingly becoming less and less likely to make any real noise with random QB who just hasn't had a chance. Or the right chance. See Hoyer, Fitz, Cassel, etc. The Texans ceiling with that type of QB is at best a second round exit. Even with an all time great defense it still seems like you're looking maybe at a conference championship game. Fact is QBs, defenses, offenses, coaching has improved so much. The 15th best QB in the league is still miles better than what the Texans trot out there. And then you have multiple teams with seriously dominant defenses AND a top ten QB The point? Who cares about Ezekiel Elliot. QB. Have to have QB. Your team can suck balls his first year. Draft and build from there.
I mostly agree with what you are saying. An end of first round QB probably has < 25% of being a better than average starting QB. For other positions besides QB, first round draft choice have a much higher hit rate. That is the tradeoff. If the Texans see a QB that they like and think can develop into a NFL QB at the end of the first, by all means they should draft him. If the Texans do not, they should draft the more of a sure thing in the first and should take a flier on a QB in the second or third round.
with CLE/SF/STL/CHI all picking before us, hard to see us getting Goff/Lynch/Wentz if those three are gone, we could take Ezekiel Elliot and then grab Cook/Hackenberg in rd 2
We don't need a great QB. We need at least an average QB, and even average QB sign for tons of money and are hard to come by.
I agree that we don't need a great QB, and it would have been awesome if we had picked Carr, he'd have been perfect. I still am hoping that they pick up RG3 and BOB fixes whatever the hell went wrong with him.
