http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-happened-to-teams-that-traded-for-aces/ Of the 21 teams that added good starters, 17 advanced beyond the end of the regular season. Two were eliminated in single-game eliminations. Nine were eliminated in the division series. Four were eliminated in the championship series. Two lost the World Series. Which means that none of the teams actually won the World Series.
I don't think they would go to a pure 6 man, because the will want Keuchel and whoever they acquire to make their full share of starts. I'm guessing they'll take turns being optioned back to the minor leagues to skip some starts.
It might take that to get into the playoffs but I can also see the Astros wanting to keep their starting pitchers fresh for a good long playoff run, by reducing their innings.
I'd be shocked if at least Keuchel and McHugh didn't stick to a 5 day schedule--they've been the most consistent in getting the team wins both in terms of pitching and the offense showing up for support.
But the playoffs are a crapshoot... just getting there remains the most important limiting factor in winning a world series. All "analytics" go out the window when looking at a max 20 game sample size (1 game playoff, 5 game LDS, 7 game LCS, 7 game WS).
This...you can't win the World Series if you don't make the playoffs. Not much else matters right now. Preserving and preparing for the future is important but you can't ignore where you are NOW. There are no guarantees that you're back in this position in 2016 whether you stand pat or not.
They're the most consistent in terms of the offense showing up? That isn't a thing.. but I agree that Keuchel and the trade pickup (unless it's someone lower rlike Leake) will surely stay on a 5 day schedule. McHugh I'd say is a maybe depending on how he's pitching at the time.
Yea they aren't going to be skipping any starts for Keuchel or McHugh even. I don't know that they will go the option to the minors route, but I could see some kind of tandem deal with McCullers and Vince, even if it means limiting innings but not appearances. Luhnow did say they are not going the route the Nats took with Stras where he goes till he reaches the limit and then he is done. Was glad to hear that
I think McHugh stays on a 5 day routine. When we compare him this year, to what he was last year, he obviously doesn't look that good...but if you are just looking at him as a mid rotation keep us in the game starter, he is fine. Heck, he is on a run of 6 straight starts right now allowing 3 runs or less. Problem with McHugh is that he is basically our #2 (when you consider Lance will be on some kind of a limit moving forward) and we need him to be #3 or 4.
It's really pretty hard to try and figure out who we are really going to go after Obviously the names everyone is reading about (Hamels, Cueto, Sam, Kaz) are gonna get the press But the thing is, Luhnow is likely going after someone that the analytics say will be better than what he has shown so far. He is likely to look for someone that he thinks will come here and improve, thereby giving up a little less than equal value. Without knowing what their numbers say about individuals, it's tough to figure A guy like Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner wouldn't surprise me
Do I really have to explain what I meant? Yes that's not a thing but they seem to get more run support which obviously isn't something to rely on or measure. I'm admittedly grasping at straws here. Maybe they give a positive vibe towards the lineup. It's the intangibles! In all seriousness I do think overall mchugh has been consistent enough to continue on a 5 day schedule.
The Astros' front office hasn't asked me (still patiently waiting), but this is what I'd do: I target David Price and trade for him now. I would dangle something like Appel, Velasquez, and Tony Kemp (or reluctantly replace Kemp with Preston Tucker, who they could use to replace Cespedes after they trade him). That gives us a great 1-2 punch of Keuchel and Price for the playoff push, and if we are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, gives us 4 starting pitchers to use with Keuchel, Price, McCullers, and McHugh (if necessary). Then, in the offseason, we sign Scott Kazmir as a free agent. Kazmir is a Houston native, and was close to signing with us before he chose the A's (I think we offered more money, but he decided he rather play for a contender at the time, which is kind of ironic now). Now that we are good, and players will actually want to be part of our bright future, I don't see why he would not want to come and pitch for him hometown. This is also a reason why I don't see us trading for Kazmir now, because we can simply sign him as a free agent (I think we'd lose a pick, but I can live with that acquisition cost). We would also need to make a serious push to sign David Price. It'll cost a lot, but it may just be worth it, as we would have the luxury of rolling out a rotation of: Dallas Keuchel David Price Lance McCullers Scott Kazmir Collin McHugh I think that rotation most definitely gets it done, and we would still have plenty of starting pitching prospects to provide insurance in case of injuries.
I don't think DP will be cheap even as a rental as they don't "have" to sell But If it costs Appel AND Vince for a rental, I'm out on that
Thank God you don't run the Astros... I am not giving up Appel & Velasquez and Tucker/Kemp for a dozen starts by Price. I wouldn't give up Velasquez OR Appel for a dozen starts of Price. If I am giving up top 5 prospects I am getting Tyson Ross because I will have him in 2016 & 2017.
I think Velasquez is turning into a solid future starter right now. Trading him for a rental seems very counter-productive. Appel and some farm prospects, I get it. If it takes Velasquez, I think we're losing on that deal.
Boston didn't "have" to sell Lester last year, but did so.... and its good they did because while they thought they would re-sign him anyways, they still got prospects for him. Big market teams still unload free agent to be stars, as it is one of the most sure-fire way for them to get prospects to reload their usually lesser minor league systems (as they've typically been "buyers" ). Detroit will still make a push to sign Price in the off-season... but they won't pass up a chance to get prospects for him now if they feel they're out of contention.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Orioles appear to be willing to talk about former first-round pick Kevin Gausman in possible trades,as they look for ways to get better.</p>— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/623917672288362496">July 22, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
