Gotta get some run support. They have arguably the best pitcher in the AL this season but 26th in batting average. I know Lowrie and Springer would fix the bat issues but how long do you wait before getting some help.
What is more likely to happen? Hamels pitches at a high level for the duration of the contract (which makes it a steal), or He breaks down/gets injured/has age-related regression? Certainly for "this" year, and next year, its a no-brainer that you take him as he instantly makes this team better... but if he doesn't give you similar results for the life of the contract, AND, they don't spend as much as you feel they need to (echoing your concerns in the post above), my concern is that you end up with a Justin Verlander/CC Sabathia-like situation (without the extra resources those teams have to make up for that mistake).
Most inflated payrolls also have a lot of "dead weight"... players that aren't producing close to what they're worth. What they offer their "own" guys will likely be as big of a predictor as anything... since nobody knows the current value and future expectations/potential regression better than their own front office.
I have no idea what will happen 3 and 4 years from now I know he will be younger than many pitchers who still had great success at that age And I don't think our front office is going to be totally scared to make a move with a little risk involved Maybe you are right and we will never have a long term pitcher here, doubt it though
Never said they won't have a long term pitcher here. Hell, they have a few candidates pitching now who I'd rather they hang on to for the next decade (and budget accordingly). Just saying that trading for Hamels, while he does have years left, really only becomes a "great deal" if he continues to stay healthy and pitch at a high level into his mid 30's or if he doesn't, Crane continues to raise the payroll to off-set his poor performance. I don't think those two aspects should just be discarded as "little risk" when making a move like this (in addition to considering what type of prospects they'll be giving up to acquire him). We do know there is a budget... hence all the super 2 and stashing shenanigans.... thus I'd prefer to minimize any potential diminishing returns contracts that could potentially prevent this team from re-signing its own guys (or filling needs elsewhere). We also know Hamels is more likely to come here if his final option year is picked up.
I don't think many people are buying tickets to see Johnny Cueto. He's a good pitcher but he's not that kind of attraction. Someone like Chris Sale would probably fill some seats.
Hmm... not sure about that. If the Astros get Cueto all of the press will be about how he is one of the 2-3 best pitchers in baseball and if the Astros start rolling, people will show up.
Believe it or not, Randy Johnson wasn't a "household" name in Houston before the Astros got him. Average attendance at the dome that year was also pretty mediocre. Houston has come a long way since then as a baseball city. The baseball-only specific park along with the playoff success is a big part of it... as is the INTERNET, where information about even the most meaningless of trades/acquisitions gets published with the same frequency. Cueto, Hamels, Kazmir, Sale all carry about the same "name" factor.... baseball fans are going to recognize they're improvements, but the average Houstonian won't (hell, the average Houstonian does not know about Carlos Correa) until they're told that it is a big deal.
I don't disagree that the average Houstonian is baseball-dumb, but Randy Johnson was on a different tier than any of the guys you mentioned for this year. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of baseball knew who Randy was. The same isn't true for Cueto, etc.
Yes, I agree with this. Randy Johnson was still known as the "Big Unit" and had a much more popular name than the others. He was a 6'10 freak of nature with an insane strikeout ratio. The only other pitcher that would have been a bigger more marketable pitcher at the time would have been Clemens.
Agreed... but the previous poster suggested that Chris Sale would bring fans in, but Cueto wouldn't. I was just making the comparison that even a pitcher with as big of a name as Randy Johnson wasn't automatically known by everybody... so highly doubtful that Cueto vs. Sale makes any sort of difference whatsoever. And while fans come out to see big names... they keep coming out when the team is successful.... and those two aspects are not mutually exclusive.
In 1998, the Astrodome averaged 45,000 plus fans in Randy Johnson's 5 starts. The attendance average that year was 30,000. Randy Johnson was one of the three biggest pitching names in 1998. There are no available pitchers in this market with even close to the pop culture recognition that Randy Johnson had at the time. I still remember hearing the news at night when we traded for Randy Johnson. That was MAJOR news!
If the Astros adfed a pitcher of Randy's quality today, they'd sell out all those games (as they basically did when Clemens made his starts in 2004). That's how far Houston has come as a baseball town (which was somewhat offset by the losing years). I'm not saying it wasn't major news... Just that Houston was a relatively soft baseball town back then. A major add now will go a long way to helping the attendance issues. still plenty of Houston people who haven't come back to the Astros and don't yet know who Correa is.
Reds fan here.. Cueto for Phillips and Appel is what we are floating over at Redszone. What do you guys think?
Tim Kurkjian(32:20ish): I don't think they'll go out and make the big investment in a pitcher even though they need one. They need someone to help Dallas Keuchel. I think their plan was for 2016 also and they're ahead of schedule but they won't mess with their plan from what I'm told and they'll stay the course. They may add somebody but not a Hamels/Cueto type of guy because that will mess too much with their building plan with their young guys.
<iframe src='http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=260200883&topic_id=33690934&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> It starts at :40 mark. Dont know if MLB will let me embed their video but heres a link http://m.mlb.com/hou/video/topic/33690934/v260200883/?c_id=hou Keuchel doing some recruiting.
The thing here is Appel, they believe he is capable of doing the job, as soon as this year. With Appel, you have K, McCullers, Appel, and VV as 4 legit untouchable guys. With Feldman and McHugh. They would love to have Feldman pitching good, so they could trade him next year, and allow McHugh to be that number 5 starter, battling with Straily, who i like. I don't see the Astros going after a big name starter. They could go after a good reliever. Now, what are we going to to with the offense??? Especially 1b. Is Carter or Singleton the future? I don't think so, i think is going to be AJ Reed. Now, until Reed is ready, who will be our 1b??? Lowrie???? Or will Lowrie be our 3b??? What about Valbuena??? Catcher, Heineman or Nottingham our future??? Is Castro really a .220 hitter???? How much will Conger play??? What are we going to do with Kemp as he is ready for the majors. We have a lot of OFers for only 3 spots. (Tucker, Marisnick, Springer, Santana, Phillips, maybe Kemp, and for this year, Rasmus) We have a lot of talent, this is not our year, is next year, so i dont think we are going after Cueto nor Hamels, maybe Kazmir if he comes cheap.
Disappointing if true...no guarantees in baseball When you have a chance like we do now you should try to make it happen
Heard Luhnow on 790 this afternoon, and I have to say his demeanor surprised me. He obviously said that we don't want to mortgage our future, but he point blank said that our goal is playoffs this year and he will do all he can to help us get there. For a token weekday interview, I thought he was very candid when he could have just said "well, we will keep our options open..." He also said that he is very concerned with 1B play and Carter/Singleton need to get it together soon.
Said he had some concerns about Castro as well... and that we will likely see a 50/50 split of the catching duties going forward. Everybody is being put on watch... no more p***y-footing around.
