So what is to be concluded from all of this??? Jonathan Lucroy Clearly the best overall defensive player among these 4 over the past 3 seasons as the overall leader in 3 of 4 categories Also obvious his injury problems in 2015 led to steep drop-off defensively from level of 2013-14 He is poor at controlling the running game (-2.3 total ThrowRuns) He is outstanding at Framing Pitches as he finished 1st among all catchers in 2013 and 6th in 2014 (ironically flip-flopping with Conger) He is also outstanding at Blocking Pitches, finishing top 2 among all catchers in both 2013 & 2014 Combined with his prodigious bat, he has unquestionably been among the top 5 catchers in all of MLB over the past 3 years As long as his injury problems will not be an ongoing issue at age 29, he is a steal for the next 2 seasons making only $10.25M total Derek Norris Clearly ranks as the worst overall defensive player over the past 3 years His very poor 2013-14 seasons drag down his 3-year totals, but he played those at ages 23-24 However, last season at age 25, he appeared to finally 'arrive' as a defensive player In 2015, he ranked first among this group in all 4 defensive categories While not the hitter Lucroy is, he is also a better offensive player than either of our current backstops Projected to make only $3.4M in ARB, he will also be the cheapest starting option Jason Castro Rep as a defensive whiz behind the plate appears to be a bit over-rated: Good at Framing - finished ranked #11 overall past 2 years (not quite elite), but also ranked #62 in 2013 Average at Blocking - other than #5 finish in 2014, ranked dead-last among the group in both 2015 (#100) & 2013 (#91) Average at Throwing - again, other than #6 finish in 2015, ranked poorly in both 2014 (#88) & 2013 (#94) With his regression back to Ausmus-like levels in the batter's box since 2013, his expected raise in ARB to $5M+ for next year makes him a very bad value as a full-time starter Hank Conger I think we can all agree Conger clearly battled some injury problems of his own last year, much like Lucroy He had been a borderline elite DEF catcher up until 2015, but dropped WAY off, similar to the inverse of what Norris did last season His problems Throwing were not new, but more troubling was how his Framing went from elite to average I like his power bat coming off the bench from both sides, but he'll probably never hit enough to be a full-time starter I'm perfectly comfortable bringing him back next year with an ARB figure just under $2M, as projected Most importantly, as I argued for years in the Ausmus days, what this proves to me is that Castro's DEF acumen does not adequately compensate for his OFF weaknesses Not when better upgrades are available in trade, and he is only 1 year away from FA, and will make more in 2016 than either of the trade options available An ELITE Def Catcher does not rank as poorly in Framing, Blocking and Throwing as Castro has the past 3 seasons Giving Castro credit as such is just wrong
Castro has still never cracked the Top 10 in Framing even once Lucroy did it twice, including #1 in all of MLB in 2013 Conger did it twice as well And Norris did it in 2015, finishing ahead of Castro (#9 vs #11) From those results, I could make a very good case that Castro is the worst of these 4 at Framing Pitches ... and that's supposed to be his STRENGTH?!?! And he will be paid more than any of them in 2016?!?!?
We have a winner for the David Price sweepstakes: <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RedSox?src=hash">#RedSox</a> in agreement with David Price. 7 years and $217 million. Story on <a href="https://twitter.com/BGlobeSports">@BGlobeSports</a>: <a href="https://t.co/uambYduqBK">https://t.co/uambYduqBK</a></p>— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/671809454598447104">December 1, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Wonder if they can lock up Keuchel to a cheaper multi-year deal that buys out some free agency years.... or does he look at what his buddy got and just play the course till the big money starts to roll in.
Gotta think it'll happen given that he can/should still get that big(ger) contract after the first one, making the total even higher than it would be with standard arb + 1 massive contract. A little bit of gambling on health/performance, but you have to do that either way really
I'm happy with either scenario. He certainly deserves a raise and he's on record saying he loves it in Houston. I think something will happen for him soon. That said, I'd also be happy if he gambled on himself and went through the arbitration process before reaching his big pay day. If that's the case, he'll likely pitch "hungry" and give us several more really good years. (Not saying at all he would dog it if he gets paid this offseason. Doesn't strike me as that type of person at all.)
Sorry..meant among your list...Castro has saved more runs in past two years than anyone else on your list. I'd prefer Lucroy, but Astros would have to trade a lot to get him. Castro still has more value than he's likely to be paid...and pitch framing isn't Castro's best skill.
According to StatCorner, he was better than Lucroy & Norris last season, and would be top 10. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php
If the Astros offered him that right now he would certainly take it, but if he has 3 more years like the last 2, that won't enough in 2019. It won't even be close to enough given that salaries are consistently going up. The Price contract probably makes 30 million the price to buy a post arbitration year. I imagine it would take at least 4/70 if the Astros wanted to give him a 4 year deal right now.
Well, Dallas is going to be 28 next month, and the team still has 3 years of control over him, i.e., he'll be a free agent when he's 31 years old. Who knows how long he'll be effective after that? I doubt Luhnow would want to pay him big money past age 33. Wouldn't be surprised if the Astros are only offering slight premiums over arbitration estimated salary for Keuchel for the next 3 years, plus $25M/year for two additional years. Good article on why the Red Sox overpaid for Price, and why these big contracts for pitchers don't usually work out: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/p...id-price-but-overpay-to-get-their-ace-starter "As Tony Blengino wrote recently in an ESPN Insider article regarding Zack Greinke's free agency, 'How about the quality of those age-34+ seasons? There really are only four truly excellent seasons among the group: Chris Carpenter in 2009, Roy Halladay in 2011, RA Dickey in 2012 and Cliff Lee in 2013.' As we've seen, almost all $100 million-plus contracts to pitchers don't end well: Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Johan Santana, Barry Zito, Lee, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain. The early returns on Justin Verlander's $180 million deal haven't been good. We'll see what happens with Scherzer, Lester, Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels and Masahiro Tanaka."
This is not lost on Luhnow. Luhnow may still sign a pitcher to a big money contract, but this will be an exception that makes the rule.
I think this is probably right. David Price made $10M in his first year of arbitration (2013 season) following his first Cy Young award. Made $19M last year in his final arbitration year.
I would also add that it makes the Astros less likely than most teams to deal good starting pitching prospects as the Astros are less likely to sign one as a free agent. Pitching prospects have a high bust rate, but so do many formerly great pitchers as they get further from being 30.
Yeah, I think there's a better than decent chance - unless Keuchel is willing to sign a deal now - that they'll let him play out his remaining three years and then move on. That contract for Price is just stupid-dumb.
Only if they don't win it all... and as it is, they can absorb financial mistakes if he pulls a Barry Zito. But looking at how these deals are going out, teams are pretty much writing off the expected last 3 years of regression in order to get prime years/top players now (Tigers owner on record to say he will pay whatever it takes to get the best players, and win it all before he dies)... and as long as internet/tv revenue continues to go up, contract values will go up as well... as they have since free agency first started, and when people said it was stupid-dumb to give a baseball player (Nolan Ryan) a million dollars in 1980.
