Give me this lineup and I would say 95+ wins. Altuve Lucroy/ Castro Springer Correa Reed Gomez White/ Tucker Rasmus/ Marisnick Lowrie/ Gonzalez Keuchel McHugh McCullers Fiers Kazmir/Feldman Kimbrel Gregerson Sipp Harris Neshek Velasquez Available in trade or fighting for last roster spot if Kazmir or Rasmus not signed: Gattis, Tucker, Fields, Singleton, Duffy, Villar, Appel, Feliz. For a Championship contender, backup Catcher is an important roster spot and I would have no problem giving Castro 4.5M to catch Keuchel every six days or to rest Lucroy. If Rasmus and Kazmir not signed, I would go Tucker and Fields and let Feldman (if healthy) and Velazquez battle for the #5 starter spot.
Milos, really enjoyed the thought experiment but your plan has so many common flawed armchair GM ideas. I think the team you constructed would probably be worse than the 2015 team. 1. Most of the transactions are high-upside, low floor. Despite Correa and LMJ coming in and killing it right away there's ample evidence that says most first years won't do that. Reed, Moran, and White would more than likely not out-produce Carter/Valbuena/Lowrie, none of whom had a terrible year offensively last year (no Matty D years). Wieters has an all-star level bat but has a huge injury history and is no guarantee to perform. 2. Underrating intangibles. Castro was the steward of one of the best pitching rotations in the league. They're clearly comfortable with him. You can't swap Wieters for Castro and expect the same level of comfort with the pitching staff. 3. Trading for a star-level player is not easy. If trading for Kimbrel or Chapman were that easy/cheap, it would have been done already. 4. Severely under-estimating the cost or likelihood of an extension. Kluber’s deal bought out one year of pre-arbitration which significantly dropped the AAV. Keuchel’s remaining three years of team control are all arbitration-eligible and he’s a near lock to make at least $30m over the next three years and then probably $20 mil per year in FA. I bet his extension is closer to 4 years/$50 than 5 years/$40. Springer already rejected a 7-year 23m extension before he hit the majors. I bet he goes year-to-year until free agency. 5. ‘Cutting dead weight’ is really hard. Who is chomping at the bit to trade for Feldman/Lowrie? Who wants to trade for expensive low-performing veterans? Singleton I can easily believe would find takers but I don’t think he’d return any value in trade. It’d be a pure dump. Team building is obviously difficult. Luhnow and Co. have done a phenomenal job thus far putting value (wins) back into the team cheaply. They identified areas of easy improvement (the bullpen) and minimized glaring holes (least amount of negative WAR in the league). I think they need to focus on one or two big additions (closer, hitter or starter), correspondingly replace one/two weaker players and then sit back and expect natural progression from the youngsters to improve the team. It’s not a sexy plan but it’s safer than turning over a third of the team and expecting significant improvement.
That's a hell of a write-up, milos, thanks for putting the time and thought into it. Winter Meetings are coming soon, I'm stoked to see what they do then and thereafter.
If Dallas Keuchel is gonna sign a deal past his arbitration years it will have to be a true long term deal, not 4 or 5 years. As is, Keuchel is gonna be 31 when he hits free agency. Every year is precious at that point. Teams give out those big contracts mostly for what you are gonna do early in the deal. If he hits free agency at 32 or 33 it likely hurts it long term earning potential in a major way. If the Astros are gonna buy out a free agent year, Keuchel is likely to demand 4/60 or 5/85. He's gonna want a premium for giving up those oh so valuable early 30's years. Likewise Springer hasn't stayed healthy, or hit his ceiling yet. If George can stay healthy and put together a full season of .275/.375/.500, to go with his speed he is gonna be worthy of monster numbers. The Astros would be unwise to pay him strictly on potential, and he would be unwise to accept a lesser deal, because at this point his floor seems well established. He can likely make that money any time he wants without having to settle.
hes going want more then 85mil. Dude has never really been paid in his life, looking for a 110 mil deal imo for 6 years.
It's getting really close to the time that the Stros and Ground Control will have to do some serious future budget machinations. You can't give long term deals to everyone, you can't buy out arb years for every young player (Grossman?, Singleton?). I'm really curious how they handle this, who they offer, where the market goes from here, and who accepts what.
I think we need a closer, but as you've said, hard to get. Again i will say that i think VV can be the set up man or closer, as Toronto did with Osuna. The Blue Jays will try Osuna back as a starter in the future, but right now thats where he can help the team the most, Astros should think the same way. The same goes with Feliz, and there are some that believes he is going to end as a reliever any way. If Feldman is healthy, and we eat part of the contract, he could be an attractive option as he only has 1 year left on the contract. Lowrie, we are stuck with that bad contract and weak bat for a 3b. The position at 1b is an interesting one, as we need to find out if Singleton can do it or not. I would like to sign a guy like Morneau, IF SINGLETON IS NOT THE ANWSER. and re sign guys like Kazmir, Rasmus and Sipp. LINEUP: 1. Springer RF 2. Correa SS 3. Altuve 2b 4. Morneau 1b 5. Gomez CF 6. Rasmus LF 7. Gattis DH (ouch) 8. Valbuena 3b 9. Castro c Bench: Conger Marwin Gonzalez Marisnick Lowrie Rotation: 1. K 2. McCullers 3. Kazmir 4. McHugh 5. Fiers Relievers: Gregerson (9 or 8) VV (9 or 8) Sipp 7 Harris 6 and 7 Neshek 6, 7 and sometimes 8 against Fields 5, 6 and 7 Feldman (long reliever) Tough decisions Carter, must be traded, Singleton, Tucker, Feliz, Villar I really think Villar is good enough to be a regular SS, but needs to go to a team with patience because he will make the dumb errors, but he has all the tools. Is going to be an interesting off season, we have a lot of pieces that can be traded, only difficult one to trade for me is Lowrie, still 2 years in his contract, and his bat only plays at SS.
Bregman can't be dealt this offseason, right? I think the rule is a year from the date he signed his contract.
They can be traded following the World Series. It is referred to as the Trea Turner Rule. Trea Turner was traded as a PTBNL that couldn't switch teams until the 1 year anniversary of his signing, so he played for the Padres organzation at the beginning of this year despite having been traded to the Nationals. They changed the rule so that wouldn't happen again.
a-rod may be a tool, but his analysis and commentary throughout the playoffs have been on point. he's been a pleasant surprise to listen to (or maybe its just not listening to harold reynolds).
