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2015 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Nov 24, 2014.

  1. sealclubber1016

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    The Triple A championship game is tomorrow night. One game between the PCL champs and the International League champs. It will be televised on NBCSN.
     
  2. cardpire

    cardpire Member

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    i'm still confused by tomorrow night's game. from their celebrations and everything, it feels like tomorrow is more of an exhibition game, and the pcl championship is more meaningful? and the fact that it's one game and not a series would also lend credence to that.

    is that accurate?

    cool to see them get so pumped over the win.
     
  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    No. You mentioned speed being a reason that someone with a higher sustainable BABIP. Yet a majority of players with a high BABIP playing in the majors are not fast. Rather they are line drive hitters with a high ratio of hard hit balls. Guess what? That fits White, and the advanced minor league numbers support that assessment.

    Further, you are arguing with a strawman. I have yet to see anyone say that they are impressed with White only because of his high average. Offensively there are few things that White does not do well with a bat in his hands.

    I am sure you are also aware that White had tinkered a lot with his swing around the time he was in Corpus.
     
  4. CrashDavis

    CrashDavis Member

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    Speed can play a factor. More infield hits. Gordon had 39 last year. That inflates his BABIP. It's not hard to see that. You do not have to be fast to have a high BABIP. Never said you had to be, but a fast Billy Butler is going to have a higher BABIP than the actual Butler. It wasn't part of my argument just a response to Dee Gordon brought up.

    "Speedy runners are more likely to have higher BABIPs because of their ability to beat out infield hits." - Quote from MILB.com

    Again you literally cited his average to justify replacing Karter, that's what I went off of. Backed up by my point that people did not talk about bring him up until he's been posting a .350 plus average in AAA. That was my original argument.

    Now I'll move on to your other point about his supposedly sustainable high BABIP and that being caused by he's a great line drive hitter.

    So would you say luck has nothing to do with his .400 plus BABIP?

    His minor league stats you speak of does not support that high above league avg babip. I've stated that.

    White's LD% this year? 24%.
    His LD% last year? 24%
    Now being fair if you cherry pick and start from July 15 this year its 27% but still 24% overall this year. So over a larger sample size, he is the same player LD% wise as he was last year. Not my opinion, strictly stats.

    27 would be top 5 in the majors 24 would be top 25ish. If he could sustain the 27% great, but numbers do not support that yet. Also I'd think you'd have to adjust for leagues. I couldn't find LD% for minor leagues so I came up with some proxies.

    Who else has a similar LD% you may ask?
    Colin Moran 25% for 2015. BABIP .365
    Nolan Fontana 25% for 2015 BABIP .317
    Tony Kemp 26% if cherry picking until July this year.

    So its not like he has the outlandish propensity for hitting line drives, backed by the NUMBERS. So please continue to tell me I'm wrong.

    I did not know he tweaked his swing in a major way so if you could please link me to that. Players do make tweaks all the time though. But maybe he made a breakthrough, or maybe he's just been hot. Numbers will tell.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    So what you're saying is that Tyler White won't be a Hall of Famer? The hell you say!
     
  6. CrashDavis

    CrashDavis Member

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    So you think kemp, moran, and fontana are hof? Thats who I comp'ed him to. He's a higher OBP guy than them but apparently can't play defense. Nook insinuated the stats said that he's a great LD hitter that could sustain an extreme BABIP. I said stats didn't support that showing said stats. That's it. Cool story though.
     
  7. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    I agree with you. Nook also said White would hit .300 with a .400 on base in the majors. Yeah, some of the fans around here are a little nuts or in this case a lot nuts.
     
  8. right1

    right1 Member

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    So now it's nuts to think White could hit .300?

    *snickers!*
     
  9. right1

    right1 Member

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    How crazy is to think A.J Reed could hit 30 home runs with 100 RBI's? Or that a clutch pinch hit double by Matt Duffy could turn the losing streak around and rally the 'Stros for 3 wins in a row?!
     
  10. CrashDavis

    CrashDavis Member

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    And that would be fantastic but that remains to be seen. Will be looking forward to his development as a catcher that we sorely need.
     
  11. CrashDavis

    CrashDavis Member

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    Looking at some stats, Jon Kemmer (24) of AA (21st round in 13) had an interesting year.
    BB% jumped 8% points to to 10.6%.
    LD% almost doubled to a crazy 30% for the year.
    OBP jumped 100 points to .414.
    Hits to right field went from 40 to 62 and was where he had most of his hits this year. Change in approach?

    Has some pop 18 HRs in just 364 at bats that appears to be to all fields.
    1 per 20 ABs
    Reed was 1 per 18 at AA for comp.

    Anybody know anything about his defense? Played LF, RF, DH, and 1st, decreasing in games from first to last.
     
  12. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    I think it's nuts he'll hit .300, absolutely, but with a .400 on base also? Yes. Not only nuts but completely you've got to be kidding nuts. Like fly me to the moon nuts.
     
  13. right1

    right1 Member

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    That he could hit .300 for avseason? Not so crazy. That he could sustain a .400 obp for his entire career? Yes, crazy. That he could put up a .400 obp for a full season. Very unlikely. That he could get on base at a .400 clip during a month long hot streak during a September pennant race? Not so far-fetched. So what #'s do you think he could put up for a full season over 400 AB's? .295 avg with a .360 obp? .287 avg with a .350 obp? What are your fly me to the moon nuts #'s for A.J. Reed?
     
  14. vince

    vince Member

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    Funny how we look at our top minor league prospects and project a career of success. When in reality such a small percentage can even sustain a moderate levels of success.

    MLB is a game of true masters. And there is no room for error for either the pitchers or batters. Sure we have guys like Chris Carter, but even he has had a few seasons close to an OPS of 800..

    After thinking Daryl Ward or Brett Wallace would carry the tradition of elite Astro first basemen, I am glad there are options in Singleton and Reed. Like the old saying, don't put all your eggs in one basket.
     
  15. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Only a small percentage of top prospects on other clubs sustain a moderate levels of success at the ML level also. Given we not only have good ones, but more of them (top prospects) than most other clubs, I like where we sit.

    I am about ready to put Singleton with Ward and Wallace.
     
  16. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    Relatively small sample size, but this is Wallace's slash line with the Padres in about 80 at bats:

    .325/.381/.558/.939
     
  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    White has hit over .320 in 2 of his three seasons in the minor leagues. He is a career 312 hitter. He has had an OBP over over .400 every season and it has trended higher every season.

    He has a high line drive %, he also has a very high % of hard hit balls, which has a direct correlation to BABIP. You couple that with a high walk rate and more walks than strikeouts and you have someone that potentially can be a very productive major league hitter. He also isn't putting up these numbers repeating levels. His home/away splits are very solid, he hits well behind in the count or ahead in the count.

    He is very much a student of hitting. He has lost weight and trimmed body fat. He has worked hard on his swing and it roundly considered to be a student of the game.

    I am not absurd with prospects. For years on this board I have said a majority of prospects never make it. I don't even know that White will be anything special. However, based on his track record I am not going to discount the possibility of White having a 400 OBP or hitting 300 at some point at time.

    There are no major red flags with White. Why isn't he a bigger prospect? Because he was a 33rd round draft pick and cannot play 3rd base.

    I will take a smart player, that works hard, makes adjustments, has a very good LD% and HHB% that doesn't strike out 9 times out of 10.

    No one thinks he will hit 370 in the majors. Even if he hits 280, he is probably going to have an OBP close to 400 with an OPS of 800 or higher and that is very good.

    For whatever reason "Crash" jumped at people pointing out that White hit 370, but then said he is a promising prospect. I don't know if it was just something to argue about or not. I don't think we are that far off. He isn't going to have a 460 BABIP, but I do believe he will have a higher BABIP than most players, based on his skill package.
     
  18. vince

    vince Member

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    Well Wallace did have the talent. However, plenty of times it seemed that was about to turn the corner before he would dig himself into a hole deeper than Chris Carter.

    Good for him.
     
  19. CrashDavis

    CrashDavis Member

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    No don't think we're far off and sorry if you feel like a "jumped" on you specifically. I'm just tired of hearing fans clamoring for him to be brought up to replace Carter when imo he shouldn't and that's backed up by the stats. Nobody started saying that until he started hitting for a high average in AAA that I noticed. "Carter sucks. Bring up white. Front office doesn't know what they are doing." just gets old after reading awhile.

    All I'm doing is discussing. That's what board were for. Can you provide that link? Also where do you find HHB% for minor league players? I can't seem to find that.

    And just a word of caution because you said he probably would have a OBP close to .400. Brandon Belt had a 400 plus OBP throughout the minors, is a high LD hitter, had a higher BB% but his carrer MLB OBP is .340. No I'm not saying White is Belt, and yes if he turned into Belt that'd be great. I'm just making a stats comp. and how they can translate to the MLB. Take it for what it's worth which is not much.

    The reason why he is not a higher prospect is he has one tool that has at least average potential. Toolsy guys are generally rated higher (ex. Brett Phillips). I'm sure you'll agree that if a guy does 1 thing exceptionally well he could be a good player. But he better be damn good at that one tool.

    Redflags would be lack of height/body type (yes you don't have to be 6'3" 225 but it's ideal but your're not getting ideal in the 33 round), lack of a true position (doesn't have ideal power you'd like at first). Unless.. catching works out.

    In an interview in July he said catcher was his natural position, he played it growing up and a bit in summer league. At least he's not starting from no where.

    Sidenote astrosfarm.com by Daren Willman is an awesome site for those who haven't checked it out. Long time user of it but didn't know the full capabilities until recently.
     
  20. cardpire

    cardpire Member

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    quick double for white
     

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