Had the owner known we would get off to this type of start, I wonder if he would have made a stronger push for someone like James Shields.... Dallas K, McHugh, Shields and Feldman at the top of the rotation coupled with the depth in the pen would have given us a really stout team.
As much as I like James Shields, I'd much rather make a run at one of next off-season's top pitchers. Adding a Price, Cueto, or Zimmerman to playoff chase team Astros this year would equal a contender next year.
Zimmerman, unless this has changed in last start, has lost 1.5 to 2 mph on his fastball. Unless the reason for mph drop is correctable or temporary, I'd stay away from long term deal with him. He's still good, but not as effective as he was.
I'm talking world series contender, i.e. top ~4 teams. There's a decent chance they stay in the playoff chase til late in the season but by no means are they a world series contender just cause they got off to a hot start.
All you gotta do is get in the playoffs to be a WS contender. Even if the Astros are the team everyone expected, a tortoise will beat a hare in a race if it gets a big enough lead. Mariners are a McHugh start away from being down more wins than they are expected to be better than the Astros. Edit: The expectation is based on Fangraphs projection system. I already think the Astros are the favorite in the West, but not an over 50% favorite (i.e. better than other teams, but no team having a greater than 50% chance).
Semantics. That's like saying the Nets were an NBA championship contender this year. Short of being comfortably in first well into August I don't see anyone calling the Astros true WS contenders even if they're in the thick of the playoff race. Subjective 'contender' status adds/takes away nothing from the team. No one was considering KC a favorite when they first got into the playoffs. KC didn't care and they still made it to the WS. It's like Tony Kemp and 'top prospect' status. The guy can rake all he wants, the pundits will probably never put him on a top 100 list. Doesn't matter at all, because he could still put up a 3-4 WAR season in the bigs. In the same vein, Houston COULD make it to the series but it doesn't mean people are expecting it.
MLB playoffs is a crapshoot. Anything can happen once you get in there, it is all about who gets hot at the right time. Doesn't work that way in the NBA.
Again semantics but the term contender is used in the MLB lexicon and it has meaning. The 86 win second wild card team isn't considered a WS contender the same way a 105 win division leader is. Pundits aren't giving them equal playoff odds.
But 86 win teams can win the WS and it has happened many times over the past 15 years. Luhnow has even said it himself in an interview, just get in and then anything can happen.
This isn't basketball. Astros have a ton of relievers and two solid pitchers even with McHugh being off today. If Astros make postseason, they have a much better chance than Nets.
Being a pitcher that has the highest Ground Ball% in the major league in the last few seasons, Keuchel's low ERA is mostly attributed to the much improved defense. According to Fangraphs, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 2.84 (ranking 19th overall) this season, compared to 3.21 (also ranking 19th overall) last season, yet his ERA leads the major league at the moment. Meanwhile, Astros' defense stats has had a big improvement compared with last season.
Those teams have better odds in baseball than the "lowest" seeds in the other respective sports. Baseball playoffs are the crap-shoot to end all crap-shoots.
Apparently they are! At the present the Astros are distancing themselves from the "pack" in their division. That ground is not easy to make up, especially if they keep playing well. The torrid pace won't last all season, but it demonstrates that they have talent.
One think I forgot to mention in this thread is how much I LOVE the current uniforms. Clean and simple with a nod to the past.
Right now we are having some good fortune. History consistently show that when you play close games, you lose a lot of them, regardless of how good you are. Right now we are 6-1 in one run games. Which is not to say I think the bottom is gonna fall out, even if we go 3-4 in those games we are still 15-10, just that we are in one of those blessed stretches that happen occasionally. The more I see of this squad, the more I think we can win 90, need to sure up the back of that rotation though. Hernandez has been competent enough so far, but in the long run I still think that will be a problem. Hopefully Obie and a trade can plug that hole.
Me too. I'm a casual stros fan but I love the new logo and uniform. Was thinking about going to academy today and picking up a cap.
I'm probably one of the few still not sold on McHugh. I think he's a fine number 4 pitcher. So I'd say we need some front end of the rotation help, a solid no. 2 pitcher after Keuchel. Feldman, McHugh and Hernandez (or Obie or whoever else can earn the 5th spot) make a nice BOR. Complaining about our backup position players probably shows you how well our team is doing, but right now our backup position players are Conger, Villar and Grossman. Conger is fine. I'd be surprised if Villar were still here by the end of the week, only question is who would be the replacement. My guess is Lowrie to the 60 day DL and Fontana to the active 40 man roster, and called up this week. Grossman seems to be going through one of his funks right now too. Would be nice to see him get out of that funk soon, as I fear he could be another JD Martinez, i.e., a guy that breaks out with a change of scenery.
