I wouldn't call it a huge fail, especially if there are legit medical concerns (obviously)...who is to say that there aren't 2 players better than him in next year's draft?
If we take him #1 overall, and he doesn't join our organization for ANY reason, that is a huge fail When you are the worst team in baseball year after year, you have to end up with studs with those #1 picks
It's just not true in this case, unless we were to fail to sign whoever we draft at 1.2 next year also.
I'm prettty sure this holdup is all about Aiken's camp waiting out deals with other unsigned picks (namely, Mac Marshall) to see how much (if any) of his slot or ALL slots are utilized. There's an agreed upon FLOOR for Aiken's signing bonus, I'd assume. Now, it's a matter of Aiken maximizing his bonus based on what is left over. I'm not worried about signing Aiken in the slightest. It's just a matter of how much he'll end up getting.
Costing us Jacob Nix is a valid complaint, but, there's no way to see into the future and compare this years 1.1 and next year's 1.2, is all I'm saying, and that includes your claim that it would "delay the team's improvement". For all we know, next year's 1.2 would get to the big show quicker than the high school arm in question.
Well, i'll just have to agree to disagree on this one I guess. Hopefully we get him signed and he turns into a great pitcher and this argument doesn't matter. The history of HS arms is so poor anyway, but I sure don't see it as an "it don't really matter" situation, if the top overall pick doesn't sign
Its still a huge fail. You work "hard" to have the worst record in baseball, and get appropriately rewarded with the #1 overall pick to select whomever you want... and you don't end up with the player you selected? (regardless of the reason... and if its presumed to be medical... a big presumption with no basis... can't see how that's not partly the Astros fault for not doing the appropriate diligence on picking up a possible injury concern). And if that does happen, you somehow trust them to make the top pick (or top two picks) next year???? They need to get him signed...
All I'm saying is, you can't classify something as "a huge fail", when there's not much worse than (if at all) a 50/50 chance that the fallout lands you in a better position than where you started. Would it be a credit to the FO for not getting him signed? Of course not. But, unless 1.2 doesn't sign the following year, there's really no net loss. (Unless it causes Nix to not get signed, as juicystream mentioned.)
They should have done this last year then (not sign Appel when it was even more obvious they'd be getting the #1 pick in the draft). I just don't think it makes it any less of a fail. Additionally, I'm looking at it from the standpoint of losing Aiken... one of the most touted left handed HS pitcher since Kershaw, along with losing out on the other potential #1 prospects from this draft. Finally, you're setting up a ridiculously bad precedent for this front office if last year's #1 is a dud (or at the very least, anything but the sure thing he was projected to be), this year's #1 doesn't sign, and you expect them to make the most of two top picks who both will demand a hefty salary... at that point, I'd almost venture that this front office is more comfortable not having the #1 overall pick.
I agree with every aspect of this post, except i'm leery of putting a HS pitcher in the same sentence with Kershaw
I meant in terms of a left handed HS draft prospect... which Kershaw was as well when he was drafted 7th overall in 2006.
Yea, I get it. Let's hope we get him signed, and he turns in to that. With all of the pitching depth that we have in the system, we really need a true Ace
I'll settle for not whiffing on any more #1 picks... it makes the losing at the big league worse when the #1 picks don't make it, or don't sign at all.
Aiken not signing or being damaged goods on the heels of Appel's struggles would be a huge blow to confidence in the Astros FO.
