http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/7/16/5904605/an-aiken-elbow-more-info-comes-to-light A good read in regards to the Aiken discussion. I really am leaning to the Astros side. Although I'm fairly certain Luhnow couldn't have planned it, a injury-scare Aiken, Nix, and Marshall would be an insane haul to add the haul that's already started playing
"Read that again. Brady Aiken does not have much of an ulnar collateral ligament, which connects the parts of the elbow to one another. According to our resident Doctor Brooks, this condition might contribute to Aiken's ability to throw 97 mph because there is less mechanical resistance to the moving parts of his arm, but it certainly increases the likelihood of catastrophic injury. Additionally, surgery to add a functional UCL into his arm could very well slow his arm action and reduce his velocity." Just a quick snap from that article.
Still some pretty big leaps in judgement that is based on a quote made by somebody privy to Drelich who isn't a doctor and may not know the full story either. Hell, even without the UCL anomaly, Aiken is a risk just by being a 17 year old pitcher.
I agree but from the story by Drelich - it does seem to shed a light into there being a legitimate concern and the Astros not being an evil empire here. You would think if the bill of health was as clean as his Agent originally made it sound there would be an interview with one of the Dr's especially Dr. Andrews who would blow any chance of the Astros saving face. When re-reading the Agent's comments and then what was leaked by Drelich it seems like intentionally vague wording to avoid the exact issues Drelich reported.
The actual dr's aren't allowed to comment without Aiken's consent. And yes, the Aiken camp is perfectly reasonable in saying he isn't currently injured, and is ready to pitch now. The Astros would agree with that. It's about if he could get injured in the future. Even then, Drelich's article implied that the issue is a "small UCL" for which there really is no known increased (or decreased) risk of injury. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Astros obviously still want to get a deal done, and Aiken does have some decreased leverage (unless MLB makes him a free agent and all the doctors suddenly agree that small UCLs are no big deal).
That's a good but very expensive haul. The Astros would likely be paying more than consensus for Nix and Marshall. And the Astros would be paying Aiken serious money for nothing if he never makes the show. The question is whether 2014 1.1 slot of $7.9 million buying you $4 million* worth of HS pitching (Aiken, Nix and Marshall) is a better decision than drafting the 2015 1.2 pick. * $0.5m for almost-no-ucl Aiken (what he would get if his medicals were known prior to draft) $1.5m for Nix $2.0m for Marshall
Aiken has to get at least $3million, and you don't get a chance to get the other players without his slot money being disbursed. (So it really is all or nothing) Is say yes, the above is better (even without Marshall). They'd be dealing with a whole new set of unknowns and variables next year, and aren't exactly generating a great track record. It's also not as if they can take that $8 million from this year and put it somewhere else... They likely just put it in their pockets.
For the record, I'd just like to take a moment to say that Keith Law (and most of the baseball media) are worthless jackasses. If this information had come out before the draft, everyone would be hammering the Astros for taking "injury-risk" Aiken. But since we found out after (giving Brady a physical at the earliest possible time we are allowed) we're Satan's spawn for not holding up our offer. A high school pitcher with a genetic defect in his pitching elbow? Yeah, that guy would most likely be a Mac Marshall late round "lottery ticket" signing if they were to do the draft again.
Well, most of the $8 million would be going to the 2015 1.2 slot allocation. The most annoying thing about all of these arguments is people's sudden attachment to Nix, as if anybody knew who the hell he was a month ago. The more sensible argument would be getting upset about losing the 5th rounder in general, whoever happened to be drafted. On one side of your mouth, you talk about this regime's track record of misfiring on picks, but on the other, you are giving them credit for drafting some suddenly indispensable/potentially catastrophic loss in Nix. You can't have it both ways. And guess what, people? There will be a whole new signability-concern pool to draw from next year, with all-new Nixs and Marshalls who we've never heard of till draft-time. We will also have an unprecedented bonus pool to allocate next year if Aiken doesn't sign. My order of preference is #1: Sign Aiken, Nix, Marshall, or #2: None and have another go in 2015. #1 would compensate adequately for the risk of drafting a HS arm 1.1, elbow concern or not, IMO.
I think it's somewhat annoying that everybody universally praised Aiken as the best possible choice in the draft, and now people are ready to say he's too risky "elbow concern or not" because of his age and HS status. I think your preferences are pretty much the only possible scenarios to happen (although I could see them still giving more to Aiken and not having enough for Marshall).
He ended up inching his way to the top as consensus choice in a draft with a weak front end. I don't think anybody ever thought that there wasn't big risk involved in drafting a HS pitcher 1.1.
I think there is a ton of information going around right now. Yeah his UCL is abnormally small, but his muscles and ligaments are apparently extremely large. He is genetically different from most, so I think its really a flip of the coin whether this is really a problem or not. Of course the Astros are getting painted in a negative light. It is what ESPN and the Twitterverse has come too. Getting page hits.
Link? I don't think he does necessarily have large muscles and ligaments, only that it was speculated upon. At this point, I don't care what they do. If they really think he is special, then they should work it out. If they just think he was the best of a weak class, then make the minimum offer and go back at it next year with 2 top draft picks. I am not so concerned about losing a 5th rounder. Usually you don't want a huge hole in a draft year, but who ever we would take #2 next year would probably be up faster than Brady anyway. Worst case scenario is that Aiken is made a free agent, signs somewhere else and becomes an elite pitcher for a decade and Nix or Mac becomes a good pitcher.
But was he that much better than the almighty Carlos Rodon? Or on the flip-side, was Rodon considered that much more "risky"?
The Astros have been the "worst case scenario" in baseball for 3+ years now... when there is finally a glimmer of hope, we get some more worst case scenarios.
Really good article looking at the dilemma from each side. In the end, he says to blame the system. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/everyone-looks-bad-in-the-brady-aiken-mess/
As the Astros said, you dont play with a 1-1 draft pick. The abnormality is there so the Astros are within their rights to be concerned. Almost to the point of getting a re-do. We are talking about high school pitchers so none should be getting to the bigs at the earliest till 2019.... Taking next seasons #2 pick seems reasonable. And at this point a much safer option. In 3 years Nix and Marshall might be top 10 drafted players, but this is baseball where each level gets progressively more difficult. Astros doing right thing for teams future nixing this draft in favor of next years! Its almost to the point i myself am weary and rather Aikens walks off to UCLA.
If he signs, it means he was also concerned enough about the "UCL" and knows this is the most he's going to get. If he doesn't sign its because he truly knows/believes he is healthy and is happy with the advice/opinions he got from his "agent" and doctors.
