2013 NFL Draft - McShay Mock Draft

J.R. · Apr 10, 2013

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With the NFL draft a little more than two weeks away, my final board is coming into focus, but solidifying prospect rankings doesn't mean the intrigue is subsiding for NFL teams.

There are still plenty of options on the table as team needs are adjusted and players make final visits to NFL cities, working out for teams and interviewing with coaches, scouts and front-office personnel.

With that in mind, it's time for my annual scenario-based mock draft. I've laid out three possibilities for every first-round pick, with Scenario 1 reflecting the ideal selection for each team (within reason), but not necessarily including the player ultimately projected to that team, based on how the first round unfolds.

And trades are a consideration in this mock draft projection, which means plenty of possibilities for the top quarterback and top offensive tackles on the board.

Here's how I see things playing out at this point. As always, non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.

1. Luke Joeckel*
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M AGE: 21 HT: 6-6 WT: 306 POS: OT

Scenario 1: With Branden Albert's future up in the air, the best bet for the Chiefs is to get a left tackle who can step in now, or perhaps a year from now after Albert plays out his franchise tender. Joeckel is a plug-and-play prospect with 39 career starts at the highest levels of college football.

Scenario 2: If not Joeckel, then Eric Fisher is the next-best option. He's not as technically sound and didn't face the same level of competition, but Fisher's ceiling is a little higher because he's a slightly better athlete.

Scenario 3: Trading out could be an option if Kansas City should get a reasonable offer that would allow it to stockpile picks, and also stay within range of Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson or a difference-making defensive end for its 3-4 scheme such as Utah's Star Lotulelei.

Stats and Info: Chiefs quarterbacks were sacked or under duress on 35.3 percent of their drop backs against five or more pass-rushers last season, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Joeckel was not responsible for any sacks against the blitz last season.

2. Dion Jordan
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Oregon AGE: 22 HT: 6-6¼ WT: 248 POS: OLB

Scenario 1: The Jags would be perfectly content to stay home and take Jordan, whose rare combination of length and versatility against the pass make him a perfect fit for the Leo position in Jacksonville's new defensive scheme.

Scenario 2: If they don't opt for Jordan or another pass-rusher like BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah, the Jaguars could fill their need at cornerback with Alabama's Dee Milliner, the one elite defensive back prospect in the class.

Scenario 3: If the new coaching staff isn't sold on Blaine Gabbert as its quarterback of the future, this pick could be used (whether by trading back or staying put) to acquire the quarterback it thinks is the best fit, whether that's West Virginia's Geno Smith or USC's Matt Barkley.

Stats and Info: The Jaguars' defense averaged a sack every 32.9 drop backs using standard pressure, worst in the NFL. All 4.5 of Ansah's sacks last season came when BYU did not blitz, including two sacks when he was one of just three pass-rushers.

3. Ezekiel Ansah*
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU AGE: 24 HT: 6-5¼ WT: 271 POS: DE

Scenario 1: For a Raiders team facing serious salary cap issues this season, the absolute best scenario is to find a trade partner that would allow Oakland to move back, get extra picks and ease its financial burden.

Scenario 2: There is a lot of speculation that Florida DL Sharrif Floyd is going to be the pick here, but I see defensive end as a bigger need. Floyd's lack of pass-rush production on the interior is a bit of a concern as well, and if I'm going to take a chance on potential I'd rather bet on Ansah and his rare physical gifts.

Scenario 3: If Oakland likes Floyd, he makes sense as a penetrating 3-technique in its system. His 13 tackles for loss last season are proof of his ability to disrupt inside.

Stats and Info: Four individual players had more sacks as part of a standard pass rush than the Raiders had as a team (12). Though Floyd had only three sacks, Florida's defense had nine players with at least two sacks, tied for third most in the country.

4. Star Lotulelei
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Utah AGE: 23 HT: 6-2½ WT: 311 POS: DT

Scenario 1: Of all the teams in the top five overall, the Eagles did the best job in free agency and are most free to take the best available player for their schemes. The D-line isn't a pressing need, but Lotulelei is a top-five talent and would give the Eagles another solid 3-4 end and some flexibility in their new 3-4 hybrid scheme.

Scenario 2: With one of the top two offensive tackles available -- in this case Eric Fisher -- that position comes into play. Both Jason Peters and Todd Herremans are coming off injuries, and taking Fisher would allow Herremans to bump inside to guard.

Scenario 3: New coach Chip Kelly could opt for Geno Smith, who fits what Kelly wants to do in terms of making quick decisions, spreading the ball around and mixing in the zone-read option.

Stats and Info: The Eagles' offensive line allowed 120 sacks or tackles for loss last year, the most in the league. Fisher anchored a Central Michigan line that allowed 78 last season, or eight fewer than Alabama's well-publicized offensive line, albeit against lesser competition.

5. Eric Fisher
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan AGE: 22 HT: 6-7 WT: 306 POS: OT

Scenario 1: The Lions need to fill the hole left by the retirement of longtime OT Jeff Backus, and Fisher is the best natural pass-blocker in the class. He would be a huge asset as Detroit tries to keep franchise QB Matthew Stafford upright.

Scenario 2: Cornerback has been a top need for some time, and with Milliner still on the board in this scenario he would have to be a consideration.

Scenario 3: Were Ansah to be available, he could make sense as a rotational player early on, who could eventually develop into a difference-maker alongside DTs Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.

Stats and Info: The Lions allowed a league-worst 86.2 Total QBR on passes outside the numbers last season, with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. Milliner and his Alabama teammates allowed five touchdowns and 13 interceptions outside the hash marks last season.

6. Geno Smith
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia AGE: 23 HT: 6-2⅜ WT: 218 POS: QB

Scenario 1: Ideally, the Browns would like to partner with a team looking to trade up to get Smith, or more likely one of the top three offensive tackles (in this case, Oklahoma's Lane Johnson). It's common knowledge the Cardinals would like to get Johnson with the next pick on the board, so teams looking to get ahead of Arizona could target this spot. That would allow Cleveland, which currently does not have a second-round pick, to move back and also acquire extra selections, which would make it easier to take Smith a little later in the first knowing it won't have to wait until the third round to pick again. Miami -- which has picks No. 12, 42 and 54 -- could be a prime trade candidate here.

Scenario 2: General manager Mike Lombardi hasn't hidden the fact that he was not a fan of the decision to pick QB Brandon Weeden in the first round in 2012, so Smith could very well be the pick here.

Scenario 3: This is yet another possible landing spot for Milliner, or the Browns could also look at the best guard prospect in a decade in Chance Warmack.

Stats and Info: Cleveland allowed 22 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers last season, tied for second most in the NFL. Alabama's opponents completed 52.4 percent of their passes with five touchdowns and 15 interceptions when targeting wide receivers last season.

7. Lane Johnson
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma AGE: 22 HT: 6-6 WT: 303 POS: OT

Scenario 1: Offensive line is the most pressing need for Arizona, and Johnson has the athleticism and a high enough ceiling that he could eventually become the best tackle to come out of this class.

Scenario 2: Should the Cardinals look elsewhere, and should Jordan fall because of recent shoulder surgery, they could find a good fit for their 3-4 system.

Scenario 3: If the top three offensive tackles are off the board, Warmack would be a good fit for Arizona's power-man blocking scheme and would also help shore up the pass protection.

Stats and Info: Cardinals quarterbacks were sacked every 11.7 drop backs last season, the worst rate in the NFL. Oklahoma allowed a sack every 36.7 drop backs last season, and Johnson was responsible for just two of Oklahoma's 15 sacks allowed.

8. Chance Warmack
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Alabama AGE: 21 HT: 6-2 WT: 317 POS: G

Scenario 1: Warmack is physically dominant and would fill the hole left by the departure of Andy Levitre. It's not a sexy pick, but Warmack is perhaps the most NFL-ready prospect at any position and would help protect free-agent acquisition Kevin Kolb, who had trouble staying healthy behind Arizona's suspect offensive line last season.

Scenario 2: Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib seems like a natural fit in Buffalo, with his former college coach Doug Marrone taking the reins for the Bills. This pick might be a little rich for Nassib, but Buffalo could perhaps utilize it in a trade that would allow Marrone to get Nassib later in the fist or early in the second.

Scenario 3: The Bills need a pass-rusher to help take pressure off the rest of the defensive line, and the explosiveness and natural athleticism of DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo would lend some flexibility to the defense.

Stats and Info: Buffalo used five different right guards last season, tied for the second most in the NFL. Warmack played every game on an Alabama offensive line that averaged 6.5 yards per carry on designed run plays between the tackles last season.

9. Dee Milliner*
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: Alabama AGE: 21 HT: 5-11⅞ WT: 201 POS: CB

Scenario 1: This turn of events is the perfect storm for a Jets team likely to part ways with disgruntled CB Darrelle Revis. Filling a major need with an elite player at this pick would be a slam dunk.

Scenario 2: Mingo's upfield explosiveness could be intriguing to coach Rex Ryan and his staff, who could surely put together a plan to maximize Mingo's skills.

Scenario 3: The Jets brought in G Willie Colon, but Vladimir Ducasse has become a second-round bust and New York could opt for the top guard on the board. In this case, that's Jonathan Cooper.

Stats and Info: The Jets' defense ranked 23rd in the league with a sack every 17.8 drop backs last season, and hasn't had a player record more than six sacks in a season since 2009. Mingo recorded 28 total pressures last season (QB hurries and knockdowns), tied for the second most in the SEC.

10. Sharrif Floyd*
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: Florida AGE: 20 HT: 6-2⅝ WT: 297 POS: DT

Scenario 1: The Titans need a player along the defensive front who can disrupt and make life easier for DEs Kamerion Wimbley and Derrick Morgan, and getting Floyd here would be a good value.

Scenario 2: Mingo is also a great fit here. He could play in a rotation and provide pass-rush pressure while adding the necessary strength.

Scenario 3: Tennessee upgraded the offensive line with the addition of Levitre, but could still use help there, and in this scenario, Cooper would certainly help accomplish that.

Stats and Info: The Titans were one of three teams (along with the Bears and Seahawks) that failed to get at least 700 plays out of an offensive guard in 2012. Cooper hasn't missed a game since his freshman year, appearing in 46 straight games to finish his UNC career.

11. Jonathan Cooper
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: North Carolina AGE: 23 HT: 6-2⅛ WT: 311 POS: G

Scenario 1: The absolute best-case scenario for the Chargers -- who can't really afford to trade up -- is to see Johnson fall to this spot. However, should they put together a package, this pick could be part of an offer that gets them up to No. 6.

Scenario 2: Warmack would be a better fit for the Chargers' power run game. However, Cooper is an exceptional talent who would add some bulk and a desperately needed upgrade to an offensive line that didn't find long-term answers in free agency.

Scenario 3: Should Lotulelei fall down the board because of lingering medical concerns, his skill set could make him a fit at nose tackle between DEs Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget.

Stats and Info: The Chargers were one of two teams to average fewer than 2.0 yards before contact per rush last year (Steelers). On rushes between the left guard and left tackle (where Warmack played), Alabama averaged 4.2 yards before first contact and gained at least 10 yards once every 5.5 rushes.

12. Xavier Rhodes*
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Florida State AGE: 22 HT: 6-1½ WT: 210 POS: CB

Scenario 1: With the loss of OT Jake Long, the Dolphins would surely like to package picks and trade up to get ahead of Arizona and lock down their left tackle spot.

Scenario 2: Should Warmack or Cooper fall here due to positional-value concerns, they would offer good value and help solidify the offensive front.

Scenario 3: If Miami opts to stay home, Rhodes' length and top-end speed would make him a fit in the Dolphins' press-man coverage schemes.

Stats and Info: With Long on the field in the past five seasons, the Dolphins allowed a sack every 16.2 drop backs, compared to every 9.6 drop backs with him off field.

13. Tavon Austin
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: West Virginia AGE: 21 HT: 5-8½ WT: 174 POS: WR

Scenario 1: The Bucs would likely prefer to use this pick to address a glaring hole at cornerback. There is talk about trading this pick as part of a package for Revis, and I'm also hearing buzz about potential interest in Rhodes.

Scenario 2: If Tampa doesn't deal and Rhodes is off the board, then Austin gives the Bucs a dynamic weapon who can line up all over the field and help open things up for QB Josh Freeman and his other weapons, and also contribute in the return game.

Scenario 3: Should corner or an offensive playmaker not be the pick, the Bucs could opt for the top defensive lineman on the board. In this case, that's Mingo.

Stats and Info: The Buccaneers' pass defense allowed an NFL-high 17 passing plays of at least 30 yards outside the numbers, 15 of which were thrown to wide receivers. No team allowed more receiving yards per game to wide receivers than Tampa Bay (203.7).

14. Sheldon Richardson*
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri AGE: 21 HT: 6-2½ WT: 294 POS: DT

Scenario 1: The Panthers are lacking a penetrating 3-technique who can get into the offensive backfield, and Richardson fits the bill with his explosiveness and playmaking ability.

Scenario 2: Corner is another need area, and if Rhodes were on the board, he would be an option here.

Scenario 3: With no offensive tackle worthy of this pick on the board in this scenario, an offensive playmaker such as Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson would come into play.

Stats and Info: The Panthers recorded only nine tackles for loss from defensive linemen last season. Only the Cowboys' defensive line (seven) had fewer. Richardson had 10 run stuffs last year (tackles for negative or no-gain rushes).

15. Barkevious Mingo*
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: LSU AGE: 24 HT: 6-4¼ WT: 241 POS: DE

Scenario 1: Don't be surprised to see the Saints look to move up if an elite pass-rusher begins to slide, even if Mingo is in the mix. Filling that need is important enough that New Orleans might potentially make a move if Jordan or Ansah should fall down the board.

Scenario 2: Mingo fits best at right end in a 4-3, but he's at his best rushing the passer, and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan would certainly find a way to turn him loose. Fellow DE Datone Jones of UCLA could also be an option.

Scenario 3: Like with Carolina earlier, there is not an offensive tackle here who can fill the Saints' need at that spot. That means they could opt to fill a hole on the back end with Texas S Kenny Vaccaro.

Stats and Info: Vaccaro's ability to step up in run support could be an asset for the Saints, who allowed a league-worst 5.3 yards per rush between the tackles last season.

16. Cordarrelle Patterson*
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Tennessee AGE: 21 HT: 6-1⅞ WT: 216 POS: WR

Scenario 1: The buzz I'm hearing is that if Austin falls, he's the guy the Rams want here.

Scenario 2: With Austin off the board, the Rams jump on another offensive weapon. Patterson isn't as proven or polished as Austin, but he is bigger, stronger and has all kinds of upside with his ability in space. He's a boom-or-bust prospect, but if he lands here, St. Louis has a player who's special with the ball in his hands.

Scenario 3: If not a receiver, Vaccaro is simply a very good overall player who would offer the Rams a huge upgrade at a position that represents a significant need at this point.

Stats and Info: Safeties Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl each played more than 95 percent of the Rams' defensive snaps. Despite that, the duo combined to defend or intercept just three total passes last season. Vaccaro had seven combined interceptions and pass breakups last season.

17. Jarvis Jones*
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
College: Georgia Age: 23 HT: 6-2⅜ WT: 245 POS: LB

Scenario 1: Jones is a nice fit in the Steelers' scheme, which could send him after the quarterback without asking him to do more than he's capable of in other areas.

Scenario 2: Pittsburgh could opt for a playmaker on the outside, likely Patterson if he were available, to offset the loss of Mike Wallace to Miami.

Scenario 3: The Steelers are in the unusual position for them of having multiple needs to fill. They could also use help at running back, defensive line, cornerback, and perhaps tight end with red zone threat Heath Miller coming off a knee injury.

Stats and Info: The only tight end targeted in the end zone more often than Miller (11) last season was Rob Gronkowski (13). Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert was targeted 15 times in the end zone last season, nine more than any other Fighting Irish player.

18. Kenny Vaccaro
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
College: Texas Age: 21 HT: 6-0 WT: 214 POS: S

Scenario 1: Vaccaro is falling in this scenario, and safety is a top need for the Cowboys. Vaccaro has the skill set to step in as a starter for a defense that's searching for a do-it-all player on the back end.

Scenario 2: Should Dallas look for help along the defensive front as it transitions to Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 system, North Carolina DT Sylvester Williams would be the top option as things stand in this projection.

Scenario 3: Teams can never have enough good pass-rushers, so perhaps the Cowboys could snatch up Mingo if he should fall, or consider DE Bjoern Werner.

Stats and Info: There was a lot of room for improvement on the Dallas defensive line last season. The Cowboys ranked in the bottom three in sacks, tackles for loss and batted passes in 2012. Furthermore, the D-line contacted opposing ball carriers in the backfield on just 12 percent of rushing plays, the second-lowest percentage in the league.

19. D.J. Fluker*
New York Giants (9-7)
College: Alabama Age: 21 HT: 6-4½ WT: 339 POS: OT

Scenario 1: The Giants aren't known for taking offensive linemen early, but Fluker would offer a boost up front with his balance, footwork and mauling presence in the running game.

Scenario 2: There is a need for more athleticism and cover skills at linebacker, and Georgia ILB Alec Ogletree could offer that if the Giants were to get comfortable with some of his off-field baggage.

Scenario 3: New York has some uncertainty at corner, and while Washington CB Desmond Trufant isn't the best in run support, he has the cover skills to contribute right away and already has a professional attitude.

Stats and Info: No team allowed a higher completion percentage or more yards per attempt last season on throws more than 10 yards downfield than the Giants. Trufant's 4.38-second 40-yard dash time was third best among defensive back prospects.

20. Tyler Eifert*
Chicago Bears (10-6)
College: Notre Dame Age: 22 HT: 6-5½ WT: 250 POS: TE

Scenario 1: Bears QB Jay Cutler could use a weapon in the middle of the field, and Eifert could help new coach Marc Trestman exploit mismatches in the passing game with his size, ball skills and versatility.

Scenario 2: Filling the shoes of Brian Urlacher would invite some pressure, but Notre Dame ILB Manti Te'o would fit Chicago's scheme, and this is about the range in which teams should start looking at Te'o.

Scenario 3: The bears face Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers twice every season, so Trufant could be an option with his ability to hold up in their man-cover schemes.

Stats and Info: Over the past five seasons, the Bears have 16 more touchdown passes allowed than interceptions with Urlacher off the field. With him on the field, they have 12 more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed. Te'o defended 11 passes in 2012, tied for most among BCS conference front-seven players.

21. Desmond Trufant
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
College: Washington Age: 22 HT: 5-11⅝ WT: 190 POS: CB

Scenario 1: Corner isn't a glaring need for Cincinnati, but Trufant would represent a good value at this point, and there is no such thing as too many good cover men for a NFL team.

Scenario 2: If free agent Andre Smith leaves town, the Bengals will be in the market for an offensive tackle. With Fluker off the board in this scenario, that could mean the athletic Menelik Watson of Florida State.

Scenario 3: This might be a bit high for a running back, but the Bengals could trade back with a team looking to get into the Quarterback market at this point. Should that happen, Alabama RB Eddie Lacy would be a fit as a complement to short-term solution Benjarvus Green-Ellis.

Stats and Info: Smith was one of three Bengals linemen to play more than 99 percent of the team's offensive snaps last year. Fluker has 35 career starts at right tackle, and Alabama averaged 6.8 yards per rush to the right and 12 touchdowns in 14 games last season.

22. Eddie Lacy*
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (from WAS)
College: Alabama Age: 22 HT: 5-11 WT: 231 POS: RB

Scenario 1: Ideally, the Rams would like to see Vaccaro fall to this spot.

Scenario 2: With Vaccaro off the board, Lacy's strong running style could combine with Patterson's playmaking ability to give QB Sam Bradford some quality young talent to develop with.

Scenario 3: The Rams could take advantage of a top talent who is sliding down the board, which in this case would mean Ogletree.

Stats and Info: In addition to the options above, Tavon Austin would be a good replacement for the departed Danny Amendola, who gained more than 47 percent of his yards after the catch with the Rams. Austin led all BCS-conference receivers with 947 YAC in 2012, which was 73 percent of his total receiving yards.

23. Alec Ogletree*
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: Georgia AGE: 21 HT: 6-2½ WT: 242 POS: ILB

Scenario 1: There has been a lot of talk about Te'o in this spot, but if Ogletree should fall this far, the Vikings would have to jump on him. He is one of the best pound-for-pound athletes in the class, and has tremendous range against the run.

Scenario 2: The Vikings' defensive line is beginning to show its age, so the team could opt for North Carolina DT Sylvester Williams, who would make sense as a disruptive presence in the middle of Minnesota's 4-3 scheme.

Scenario 3: This is yet another fit for Trufant should he slide. The Vikings also deal with Stafford and Rodgers regularly, and Trufant would help fill the void should longtime Viking Antoine Winfield sign elsewhere.

Stats and Info: The three Vikings defensive linemen who played the most snaps last season -- Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams -- will all be 30 or older in Week 1 of the 2013 season. Sylvester Williams led all BCS interior line prospects with 25 total pressures (QB hurries plus knockdowns) last season.

24. D.J. Hayden
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Houston AGE: 22 HT: 5-11⅛ WT: 191 POS: CB

Scenario 1: The Colts play man-cover schemes, and Hayden's smooth movement skills and ability to manufacture turnovers would be a solid fit.

Scenario 2: Receiver doesn't appear to be a pressing need, but QB Andrew Luck can never have too many options and Keenan Allen is an NFL-ready talent who can make plays downfield.

Scenario 3: If other options aren't attractive, Indianapolis could opt for Lacy as the potential engine that drives its power running game.

Stats and Info: The Colts' pass rush sacked, hit or put the quarterback under duress on 17.8 percent of drop backs, the second-worst rate in the league. Jarvis Joness led the FBS with 14.5 sacks, as well as all BCS defensive prospects with 31 total pressures last season.

25. Sylvester Williams
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from SEA)
COLLEGE: North Carolina AGE: 24 HT: 6-2⅝ WT: 313 POS: DT

Scenario 1: With a linebacker locked up earlier in the round, Williams would bring good value here.

Scenario 2: If the Vikings don't opt for Ogletree at No. 23, Te'o could fill that need with this pick.

Scenario 3: With Percy Harvin having been traded away, there is a need for a quality weapon for QB Christian Ponder. That would make Keenan Allen an intriguing option here.

Stats and Info: Harvin posted an average target depth of 4.1 yards downfield, shortest of any NFL wide receiver with at least 20 targets in 2012. Among the 65 wide receivers in BCS conferences with at least 700 receiving yards last season, Keenan Allen gained the fifth-highest percentage of his yards after the catch.

26. Justin Pugh*
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: Syracuse AGE: 22 HT: 6-4½ WT: 307 POS: G

Scenario 1: The Packers have a need at offensive tackle, and Pugh is an underrated talent who played tackle in college and could help solidify the Green Bay offensive line. Watson and Oregon's Kyle Long could also be in play here.

Scenario 2: Running back is another need area, so Lacy could make sense if he is on the board at this point.

Scenario 3: The secondary has a hole at safety, which could put FIU's John Cyprien or Florida's Matt Elam on the radar.

Stats and Info: Packers running backs have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons, the fewest in the NFL. Lacy had 17 rushing touchdowns last season, and would likely improve on Green Bay's league-worst 3.8 yards per rush over the past three seasons.

27. Menelik Watson*
Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida State AGE: 24 HT: 6-5⅛ WT: 317 POS: OT

Scenario 1: The Texans could stand to get an upgrade over Derek Newton at right tackle, and Watson's athleticism and movement skills would be a perfect fit in their zone-blocking scheme.

Scenario 2: If offensive line isn't the target area here, then Houston could look for a complementary weapon for WR Andre Johnson. Fits could include Keenan Allen, Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins or USC's Robert Woods.

Scenario 3: Defensive line could also be a consideration, and Georgia's Johnathan Jenkins has the versatility to line up at nose tackle or the 5-technique and provide depth and flexibility.

Stats and Info: Johnson's 158 targets made up 58.1 percent of the Texans' pass attempts to wide receivers, the highest percentage for an individual receiver in the league. Hopkins caught 10 touchdowns on passes thrown 20 yards or longer in 2012, tied with West Virginia's Stedman Bailey for most in the FBS.

28. Bjoern Werner*
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: Florida State AGE: 22 HT: 6-3¼ WT: 266 POS: DE

Scenario 1: Denver could use help along the defensive line, and Werner would fill that need with his production, strong hands and nonstop motor.

Scenario 2: If the Broncos look elsewhere on the front seven, Te'o would solidify the second level. He has enough playing speed to get from sideline to sideline and could thrive in their scheme if protected by Denver's linemen.

Scenario 3: Champ Bailey is on the down side of his career, and Boise State CB Jamar Taylor's cover skills could make him the heir apparent and an immediate asset as a sub-package corner.

Stats and Info: Replacing Elvis Dumervil's production (11 sacks last season) with Werner makes sense. Denver allowed a league-best 36.1 Total QBR with four or fewer rushers, and 12 of Werner's 13 sacks came as part of a standard pass rush, most among players rated in the top 100 by Scouts Inc.

29. Datone Jones
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: UCLA AGE: 22 HT: 6-3⅞ WT: 283 POS: DE

Scenario 1: Jones could offer help along the defensive front, giving the Patriots another versatile player who can line up at end opposite Chandler Jones and reduce inside to rush the passer in sub packages.

Scenario 2: If defensive line isn't the pick and Keenan Allen remains on the board, he would provide the downfield presence the New England offense has been lacking in recent years.

Scenario 3: Should the Pats look to another area on defense, a cornerback like Taylor or Connecticut's Blidi Wreh-Wilson could help shore up a secondary that has had its issues.

Stats and Info: Only the Jets faced more passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield than the Patriots did in 2012. New England allowed a 41.7 completion percentage on those throws (NFL average: 33.9), and was one of three teams to allow double-digit touchdowns on deep throws.

30. Jamar Taylor
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: Boise State AGE: 23 HT: 5-10⅝ WT: 192 POS: CB

Scenario 1: Taylor would fill one of the few needs the Falcons have at this point. He is an underrated corner who fits their scheme with his ability to play both man and zone coverage.

Scenario 2: Te'o is also an option in Atlanta, which would get an upgrade over current starter Akeem Dent and good value in taking Te'o at this point.

Scenario 3: The Falcons are getting TE Tony Gonzalez back for one more season, but they could opt for his eventual replacement in Stanford's Zach Ertz, who would also offer flexibility in multiple-TE packages. A pass-rusher such as Florida State DE Cornellius Carradine might also be a consideration.

Stats and Info: Over the past three seasons, John Abraham recorded 28.5 sacks when the Falcons sent four or fewer pass-rushers, and no other Falcons defensive end recorded more than eight. Carradine had eight sacks from a four-man rush last season alone.

31. John Cyprien
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: FIU AGE: 22 HT: 6-0¼ WT: 217 POS: S

Scenario 1: Craig Dahl came in via free agency, but he's not the long-term answer. Cyprien has size and range and is a hitter, and if his recognition skills catch up to his physical tools, he will be a huge asset as a do-everything safety.

Scenario 2: There is a need for a versatile defensive lineman in San Francisco. That would put Jenkins in play. He's mobile for his size, has a good motor and is versatile enough to add to the problems the Niners' defensive front can create for opposing offenses.

Scenario 3: If the 49ers look to the offense, the best available pass-catcher would be an option, whether that is Ertz or a value receiver like Keenan Allen or Woods.

Stats and Info: Justin Smith's injury exposed a lack of depth along the defensive line last season. The 49ers recorded a sack once every 16.2 drop backs with Smith on the field, compared to every 29.4 with Smith off the field. They also allowed two touchdowns on 305 rushing attempts last season with him in the game, and five touchdowns on 102 rushes without him.

32. Manti Te'o
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame AGE: 22 HT: 6-1¼ WT: 241 POS: ILB

Scenario 1: The retirement of Ray Lewis leaves a huge void in the middle of the Raven's defense, and Te'o's overall skill set could help offset that loss.

Scenario 2: Baltimore made a long-term commitment to QB Joe Flacco this offseason, and providing him with weapons will be a priority. Keenan Allen could function as a nice complement to the speedy Torrey Smith.

Scenario 3: With Ed Reed having left for Houston via free agency, the Ravens could opt for the best available safety on the board. In this case, that's Elam.

Stats and Info: Replacing Lewis could improve Baltimore's pass defense immediately. Opponents' yards per pass attempt with Lewis on the field rose from 5.9 in 2008 to 7.7 last season. Opponents averaged 5.1 yards per attempt when targeting against Te'o last season, who led FBS linebackers with seven interceptions.
Click to expand...

J.R. · Apr 18, 2013

Not a mock draft but Mel Kiper's "Grade A" draft

Kiper's 'Grade A' draft

This is not really a mock draft. In this case, I'm the GM.

In a mock I project picks -- here, I make them.

This piece came about a few years ago when my editors said, "What if there was a draft where you got to pick for every team, and not simply project picks?" This was the result, and I think if you look at last year's file, you might like this version better than your team's actual picks.

The ground rules

1. At each spot, I'm making a pick for that team at that spot. I won't pass on a player at No. 5 who fits just because I like how he fits better at No. 6. I act in the best interest of only the team with the pick.
2. There are no duplicates.
3. This year, I'll make a few trades where it makes sense (noted in italics).
4. Most important: This is NOT A MOCK DRAFT. It's my preference for each team at each slot, Rounds 1 through 3. It's supposed to be fun, which is part of the reason why I mixed in some trades.

If you start commenting without reading the rules, expect the backlash to be unrelenting.

You'll find below the roundup for each team's draft haul, but I've also included a pick-by-pick version so you can see how the order of the picks progressed and get an idea of who was off the board when each team selected.

Three rounds of picks

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Top needs: QB, WR, LB, G, CB, DE

Rd. 1 (Pick No. 8) DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
Rd. 2 (41) WR Keenan Allen, Cal
Rd. 3 (71) QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse

Analysis: I'm content to take a guard here, until Ansah falls in my lap. Defensive end isn't the biggest need on the board, but this shifts the strategy because it's possible to get a capable starting guard to replace Andy Levitre later on. It's not common that I can get the top 4-3 defensive end prospect at No. 8, so given that we're in the midst of a switch to a 4-3 hybrid defense, and one of my starting defensive ends is Mark Anderson -- who will be 30 years old this fall and on his fourth team in three years -- I'm taking Ansah to maximize value while also hitting a need. In Round 2, I take Allen, who'd be in Round 1 if he hadn't missed a good portion of the postseason evaluation process to recuperate from a sore knee. His stock clearly has fallen, but Allen is a Week 1 starter, period. Then I grab new Bills coach Doug Marrone's college quarterback in Round 3. I wouldn't project Nassib to last that long in the real draft, but in this one I'm about maximizing value, and I have him with a late second-round grade.

Miami Dolphins

Top needs: DE, OT, CB, WR, FB

Rd. 1 (12) RT D.J. Fluker, Alabama
Rd. 2 (42) DE Tank Carradine, Florida St.
Rd. 2 (54) CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, UConn (via Indianapolis)
Rd. 3 (77) CB David Amerson, North Carolina St.
Rd. 3 (82) FB Kyle Juszczyk, Harvard

Analysis: Fluker is a very slight reach in terms of value, but he's an immediate starter for me at right tackle, and that's a huge priority given that I'm in the midst of a transition on the O-line with Jonathan Martin moving to left tackle. There's certainly a chance Martin could struggle, so I can't afford to be bad at both tackle positions in a year in which I need Ryan Tannehill to take another step forward, given the new personnel we have in the passing game. Defensive ends in the 4-3 are scarce in this draft, so taking Carradine -- who would have gone far higher if not for a knee injury to end 2012 -- at this point is a solid get. Cornerback is a need here, so I doubled up with Wreh-Wilson and Amerson. While Amerson's stock is down after a brilliant sophomore season, when he led the nation in INTs, it's a good place to hit a need and bet on upside. Finally, I have a need at fullback and I use that extra third to get the best one in the draft in Juszczyk.

New England Patriots

Top needs: WR, CB, DE, G/C

Rd. 1 (29) CB Jamar Taylor, Boise St.
Rd. 2 (59) WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon St.
Rd. 3 (91) C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin

Analysis: I'm not sure fans are too excited about Taylor, but he's been a recent riser, hits one of my top two needs and the board didn't break in my favor. If you see the pick-by-pick, both the top two wide receivers are gone, and Xavier Rhodes was taken by Denver just one pick ahead. Late in Round 2, I get an intriguing wide receiver talent out of Oregon State. Wheaton has good hands, and he's run as low as 4.34 in the 40, so he's got some burst; DeAndre Hopkins of Clemson was taken a couple of slots before. In Round 3, we run into a major value gap if drafting a 3-4 defensive end, so I opt for the best center in the draft. Frederick can start immediately if called upon. Last season, Ryan Wendell took over as the starter, and played pretty well, but he can be a liability as a pass-blocker, so at the very least this creates more depth up front, and some competition.

New York Jets

Top needs: OLB, S, RB, G, QB, TE

Rd. 1 (9) OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Rd. 2 (39) OL Justin Pugh, Syracuse
Rd. 3 (72) S Shawn Williams, Georgia

Analysis: I've had Barkevious Mingo to the Jets in several mocks, but in this case, with me drafting for the Cardinals, he comes off the board at No. 7 overall. So if we want to give Rex Ryan the pass-rusher he's never really had, we go with Jones. Now, Jones is more football player than athlete, but that football player is hard to ignore because his production is exceptional. He led all of college football in sacks and tackles for loss and is going to give you a high floor. He's susceptible if you have to drop him in coverage, but the Jets will pay him to rush the passer, and I think they'll get production. I'm also addressing the need at guard in Round 2. Some believe Pugh can also work in at tackle, so you get some versatility. (I tend to think he's a guard or center.) Either way, he helps. In Round 3 I'm grabbing a high-upside safety. That position has been a revolving door for the Jets for a few years now, and Williams can provide help.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Top needs: ILB, S, LT, TE, WR

Rd. 1 (32) LB Kevin Minter, LSU
Rd. 2 (62) OT Terron Armstead, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Rd. 3 (94) S Phillip Thomas, Fresno St.

Analysis: The Ravens suffered what some might call some big losses in the offseason, but they also "lost" a lot of guys they were really content to let go. And this draft will make them better and deeper at a few key spots. For starters, as the GM I'm getting my middle linebacker in Round 1 in Minter. I have Manti Te'o and Alec Ogletree coming off the board earlier, but am plenty content with this pick. I also grab an athletic offensive tackle prospect in Round 2. Michael Oher might have to play left tackle this season, which is problematic for the offense, but Armstead has a chance to develop, and if Oher moves, right tackle becomes just another void to fill. Lastly, I take advantage of a deep safety class and with the last pick in Round 3, get one capable of starting. Three big needs are covered here for Baltimore.

Cincinnati Bengals

Top needs: S, OLB, RB, CB

Rd. 1 (21) S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
Rd. 2 (37) RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin
Rd. 2 (53) LB Khaseem Greene, Rutgers
Rd. 3 (84) WR Denard Robinson, Michigan

Analysis: Strong safety is a problem area for the Bengals, who have a lot of good pieces on the roster but a few notable holes. I would have considered both Ogletree and even Tyler Eifert at this pick if they fell, but both of them being taken earlier allows a great value in the Texas safety. I'm not a believer in taking a running back in Round 1 unless you're certain he's a star, but early in Round 2, and with an extra pick? Sure, twist my arm. The Bengals need a little more explosiveness and a guy who can break tackles, and Ball certainly offers a little more of that than they currently have on the roster. Greene is one of the true sleepers in the draft, a linebacker who immediately offers a speed upgrade for a group that could use one. Finally, late in Round 3, I grab Robinson. This draft is extremely light on players who scare defenses with the ball in their hands, and Robinson is an interesting guy to experiment with. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden can find ways to get him the ball.

Cleveland Browns

Top needs: CB, QB, G, ILB, TE

Rd. 1 (11) G Chance Warmack, Alabama (via San Diego)
Rd. 3 (68) QB EJ Manuel, Florida St.
Rd. 3 (76) CB Darius Slay, Mississippi St. (via San Diego)

Analysis: As the GM of the Browns, I trade down and still hit a top need. That No. 6 slot is a high-leverage one, because it could be the last chance for several teams in need to get one of the three top left tackle prospects. In this case, it's San Diego. I pick up this year's third and next year's as well. Without a second-round pick, the extra pick is a big help, and I still get a great player in Warmack, a guy who fills a need and should give a big boost to the run game. Warmack should be a Pro Bowl guard. The added third allows us to grab Manuel in a good value spot. For this draft you'll see I have quarterbacks lower than most, but that's a reflection of how I view the class. Lastly, Slay is a nice value in Round 3, an upgrade at the corner spot across from Joe Haden. This draft offers a good balance of immediate help at need spots, and the shot on upside at QB.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Top needs: OLB, WR, RB, TE, S

Rd. 1 (17) TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
Rd. 2 (48) OLB Cornelius Washington, Georgia
Rd. 3 (79) WR Ryan Swope, Texas A&M

Analysis: In a couple of cases I'm trying to maximize the value of a pick and hit a need at a time when the board doesn't set up perfectly. For instance, I like the fit of Eifert at No. 17, but that's because Jarvis Jones, a fit in this system as a 3-4 pass-rusher, is off the board. So I go with Eifert, who brings a new dimension to the offense. He can line up on the line or split out, and might be more of a problem matchup than Mike Wallace, given how Pittsburgh can mix personnel groups. In the second round, I grab that needed 3-4 pass-rusher. Washington is an athletic freak and has a wide range of skills along the line. In the third, I make up for the loss of Wallace by doing what Pittsburgh does at wide receiver -- getting a potential steal in the middle rounds. Swope ran a 4.34 40 in Indy, and gives the Steelers another potential matchup problem to develop.

AFC South

Houston Texans

Top needs: WR, RT, LB, NT, FB

Rd. 1 (27) OT Menelik Watson, Florida St.
Rd. 2 (57) WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech
Rd. 3 (89) LB Steve Beauharnais, Rutgers
Rd. 3 (95) FB Lonnie Pryor, Florida St.

Analysis: The Texans need a right tackle, and Watson's grade fits this draft range for me. He's a great athlete and could certainly challenge to start early. I know some NFL personnel folks who think he could move inside, but in either instance I'm looking for help up front. This offensive system starts there, and you need a nimble guy for the scheme. It's no secret the fall from Andre Johnson to the No. 2 wide receiver on this team -- whoever it ends up being -- is huge, so Patton can help. Texans fans might still have Patton's 21-catch game against Texas A&M on the DVR. I need another linebacker solution and grab Beauharnais in Round 3, and follow that up with the pick of Pryor. Greg Jones isn't a true fullback, and Pryor has good skills for that position beyond simply blocking.

Indianapolis Colts

Top needs: OLB, G, WR, CB, S

Rd. 1 (24) CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
Rd. 3 (86) OLB Trevardo Williams, Connecticut

Analysis: Vontae Davis is a decent starter at CB when he's playing up to his full capability, but Greg Toler is a fringy starter. If the board breaks this way, I'd be getting below average value at outside linebacker and guard right here, and Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin are off the board. (Also, wide receiver is a need, but not a desperate one.) Where I end up is with Trufant, a cornerback with a diverse skill set. He can work in man or zone and offers defenses some flexibility. In the third round I'm targeting potential early help in pass-rushing situations. Williams lacks some size, but in the absence of Dwight Freeney, I'm looking for a pass-rusher I can play early as the Indy GM. Remember, Robert Mathis isn't getting any younger, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Top needs: CB, DE, QB, RT, OLB, RB

Rd. 1 (2) OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Rd. 2 (33) QB Matt Barkley, USC
Rd. 3 (64) CB Johnathan Banks, Mississippi St.

Analysis: I know this isn't the biggest need on the board, but given where Jacksonville is from a personnel standpoint, if the best player in the draft is available at the No. 2 pick -- and my current left tackle is potentially gone after this season -- I'm taking the guy. This is a franchise that has taken the guy it wants and eschewed great value too many times in recent years, but that's not the case here. Take Joeckel, get better at tackle, do a better job of protecting the QB and whether I stick with Blaine Gabbert or let the next guy take over, I've at least given him a reasonable chance to succeed. That next guy might be the second-round pick. Sure, I can see Manuel or Nassib going ahead of Barkley, but this is my draft, and I still have him as the No. 2 QB. He's worth a shot. In Round 3, I'm thrilled that Banks is still available. I debated using that pick on Alex Okafor, the defensive end out of Texas, but I think Banks is going to be more consistent at a slightly bigger need spot.

Tennessee Titans

Top needs: DE, G, CB, WR, S

Rd. 1 (10) G Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
Rd. 2 (40) WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee
Rd. 3 (70) DE Alex Okafor, Texas
Rd. 3 (97) DE John Simon, Ohio St.

Analysis: The way the board breaks, Cooper becomes the best value at a need spot. With Ansah going to Buffalo at No. 8, I look to improve my other guard position. With Cooper and free-agent acquisition Andy Levitre, I could have one of the better guard tandems in the league. Shonn Greene is on the roster because there's going to be more of an emphasis on power running, and Cooper helps accomplish that. Kenny Britt has, in some ways, been a disaster, and Hunter offers pretty good value for a down-the-field threat at No. 40. Yes, he could be more physical, but he'll improve. Okafor is inconsistent, but at his best he can be very good. On the other hand, Simon isn't as naturally gifted, but he makes the team better because he's a tireless worker on and off the field and has great strength in the run game for a 4-3 DE.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Top needs: DE, MLB, DT, CB, S

Rd. 1 (28) CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida St.
Rd. 2 (58) DE Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
Rd. 3 (90) OL Barrett Jones, Alabama

Analysis: This is another team I can see trading down. There could be several teams looking to get back into Round 1 late to grab a quarterback. That said, the Broncos could hang on to the pick if Rhodes is available here. They have issues at corner, where Champ Bailey isn't getting any younger, and if I expect to play from ahead, I need to have better personnel back there. As the GM for a day, I grab Rhodes and then get a steal late in Round 2. I haven't seen a player in recent years have a worse combine than Moore, but that doesn't mean he can't play. Denver could make him a situational pass-rusher as a rookie and develop him into a more complete player. He's still just 20 years old. In the third round I'm grabbing a good depth pick on the interior of the offensive line. Jones can play guard or center and has even shown to be capable at tackle, though he won't be an NFL starter there.

Kansas City Chiefs

Top needs: OT, ILB, FS, WR, DE

Rd. 1 (5) OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan (via Detroit)
Rd. 3 (63) S J.J. Wilcox, Georgia Southern
Rd. 3 (96) QB Mike Glennon, North Carolina St.

Analysis: If I'm the Chiefs, I want to trade down. If I go down just a few spots I can still get the tackle I need but also recoup a pick. In this case, I dealt the No. 1 pick to Detroit in exchange for its first in 2014 and swapped first-round picks this year -- and I still hang onto a draft slot that allows me to grab Fisher. With Fisher, I get either my starting left tackle (moving Branden Albert to right), or my future left tackle (if he starts at RT this season). I can now also deal Albert. In either case, I get the value I need. In Round 3 I add safety help next to Eric Berry. Wilcox has some development left, but he can play. Very late in Round 3, I get Glennon, the developmental QB with tools -- the kind of player Andy Reid loves to draft and either develop into a starter, or market into future draft picks via trade.

Oakland Raiders

Top needs: CB, DT, DE, OL, WR

Rd. 1 (3) DE Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Rd. 3 (66) DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St.

Analysis: I would really like to see Oakland entertain the option of trading down from No. 3. The Raiders need to upgrade the talent level all over the roster, so if they can add a second- or third-rounder, they should consider moving down. And that includes picks in future years, because this isn't a one-year plan. In this case, I was content with Floyd here. Because the scheme for the defense isn't set in stone, I'm going to take a high-ceiling defensive tackle who is still young but has played both D-tackle and defensive end. While I don't have a second-rounder, I'm doubling down on the defensive line with Hankins in Round 3. Just based on the way the board fell (even when I'm making the picks) he might be the biggest steal on the entire draft board at No. 66 overall. It would be nice for the Raiders to feel really good about one position group on the field, and I feel a lot better about the D-line if this is the draft haul.

San Diego Chargers

Top needs: OT, G, ILB, CB, NT

Rd. 1 (6) OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma (via Cleveland)
Rd. 2 (45) LB Arthur Brown, Kansas St.
Rd. 3 (76) (Traded to Cleveland)

Analysis: If I'm the Chargers and I don't get an offensive lineman out of this draft, I'm already thinking about how I explain to Philip Rivers that he needs to purchase another life insurance policy. So because I'm making the pick, I agree to swing up to No. 6 overall in a deal with Cleveland, sending them a pair of picks, starting with my third-rounder for this year. At that spot I grab Johnson, a high-ceiling talent who could become a long-term solution on the blind side. In the second round, I address a need at interior linebacker and grab Brown, a really athletic player who should form a good tandem in there with Donald Butler. I could get a guard in Round 4, but with these two picks I cover two needs, one of them an absolutely essential one.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Top needs: G/C, S, DT, RB, RT, DE

Rd. 1 (18) DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
Rd. 2 (47) G Larry Warford, Kentucky
Rd. 3 (80) DE Joe Kruger, Utah

Analysis: It's not something I hear mentioned often, but the age of the Dallas defensive line has crept up. By the time the season starts, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher and DeMarcus Ware will be 32, 31 and 31, respectively. The young guy up front is Anthony Spencer, who is 29. That matters to me when they're shifting to a defensive scheme that might not suit at least three of those four as well as the previous scheme did. Dallas has issues on the O-line and needs help at safety, but based on how the board lines up, the Cowboys might find superior value at a couple of spots on defense. That's why I drafted Williams with their first pick -- I considered Texas' Kenny Vaccaro, but safety is a deep position -- and then grabbed a guard in Warford in Round 2. Kruger gives me a good fit as a 4-3 DE, so I have a little more depth behind Spencer and Ware.

New York Giants

Top needs: LB, DE, CB, OL, RB

Rd. 1 (19) LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Rd. 2 (49) DE Corey Lemonier, Auburn
Rd. 3 (81) TE Jordan Reed, Florida

Analysis: I'm often reminded this draft season, as we're all pointing out the obvious personnel deficiencies the Giants have at linebacker: "Mel, the Giants NEVER draft linebackers in Round 1!" And that's true -- they haven't since Carl Banks in 1984. But for this, I'm the GM! So I like the value of Ogletree at No. 19. If the board falls the way it does in this case, I'm a little frustrated that the value at cornerback isn't great here, so I'm content with Ogletree, an immediate help at a thin position. In Round 2, I'm going back to the defensive line, the pass rush in particular. Giants fans who watch every week know the pass rush in 2012 was nowhere near what it had been in previous seasons. They need help, particularly in this division. Then in Round 3, I want to find a new matchup threat for the offense. Reed can outrun some linebackers and can give the Giants a speed element they've lacked at that position.

Philadelphia Eagles

Top needs: CB, G/OT, S, DE, QB

Rd. 1 (4) OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon
Rd. 1 (25) QB Geno Smith, West Virginia (from Minnesota)
Rd. 3 (67) CB Jordan Poyer, Oregon St.

Analysis: I like the fit of Smith with Chip Kelly -- I just think it's too early to take him at No. 4. (Yes, I've put him there in mock drafts previously, but that's a projection, not a preference.) In this case, I take Jordan, who can play in space and gives me a pass-rushing threat I need. Then I trade my second-rounder this year and next to move back into Round 1 at No. 25 overall, where I take Smith. For that cost, I feel a little bit better about letting him wait his turn and gain a full grasp of Kelly's system before he plays. People need to realize that if you get a QB late in Round 1, the pick value outpaces the actual salary-cap number. There shouldn't be pressure to start a guy just because he went relatively early, because you shouldn't trade wins for the low cost of his roster spot. In Round 3, I'm getting a much-needed cornerback in Poyer. A good mix of immediate help and some hope at the most important position for the Eagles.

Washington Redskins

Top needs: S, CB, ILB, RT

Rd. 2 (51) S D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina
Rd. 3 (85) CB Robert Alford, SE Louisiana

Analysis: My "guy" Jon Gruden absolutely loves Swearinger, so he'll probably rip me for lining up a draft where it's possible he's still on the board this late. But he could be. There are a bunch of good safeties in this draft, so you're going to see a situation in which a guy goes late in Round 2 and we all nod in agreement on the set that a guy who can truly help a team in 2013 just got drafted. That's the case with Swearinger, who has good experience and a bunch of fantastic performances in big games and big situations. He can play right away. Alford is a bit of a ceiling pick -- he has a lot of ability but will need a little time to develop against better competition -- but is actually my No. 62-ranked prospect, so he's a great value at No. 85. This secondary needs help, so I drafted help.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Top needs: LB, G, RT, WR, CB

Rd. 1 (20) OL Kyle Long, Oregon
Rd. 2 (50) LB Sio Moore, Connecticut
Rd. 3 (93) WR Terrance Williams, Baylor (via San Francisco)

Analysis: With both Te'o and Ogletree off the board when the Bears get to pick at No. 20, I decide they can wait on better value at linebacker. So I took Long, a top-30 player in my prospect rankings, and, more importantly for the Bears, an offensive lineman who can potentially fill in at a couple of spots. I think he could help immediately at guard, and he has the athleticism and potential to be a left tackle at this level. He can certainly step in earlier at right tackle if needed. Long could be more physical, but with good coaching he could be a player because what he doesn't lack is natural talent. I grab Moore in Round 2 -- he offers versatility at linebacker and can contribute immediately and make tackles, as well as some plays in the backfield. I'm not a believer in Earl Bennett, and Devin Hester's career at WR isn't going anywhere, so I think taking another pass-catcher in Round 3 is worth a shot. Williams was extremely productive at Baylor, with and without Robert Griffin III. I'd like a corner as well, but this a pretty good haul for the first three rounds.

Detroit Lions

Top needs: DE, CB, OT, WR, OLB

Rd. 1 (1) CB Dee Milliner, Alabama (via Kansas City)
Rd. 2 (36) DE Bjoern Werner, Florida St.
Rd. 3 (65) WR Aaron Dobson, Marshall

Analysis: Yes, I had the Lions trade up to No. 1 to lock up Milliner. Remember, Jacksonville is there at No. 2 and really likes him, and Oakland also could pounce at No. 3, then Philadelphia at No. 4. Detroit could hope Milliner falls to them, but if the Lions really want him, they might have to move up. This year, because of the lack of a consensus No. 1 (or No. 2) pick, the cost won't be as steep. And, thanks to the fact that I'm the GM of every team, the terms weren't too bad. In Round 2, I get the 4-3 DE prospect I need in Werner. His stock has taken a hit during the draft process, but there's plenty to bet on at No. 36 overall. Finally, I grab a nice WR prospect in Round 3. It's amazing that WR is a legit need for Detroit, but after what's happened with Ryan Broyles and Titus Young, well, yeah -- enough said.

Green Bay Packers

Top needs: S, RB, DE, OT, WR

Rd. 1 (26) S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
Rd. 2 (55) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Rd. 3 (88) DT Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern

Analysis: Depending on whom you ask around the league, the Packers are either full of potential on defense, or an injury to Clay Matthews from being absolutely horrible (that 2011 defense was, remember). I think they're somewhere in between, because I like some pieces they have at corner, and they still have some development left in their front seven. They do need a safety, however, and Cyprien qualifies as one ready to play right away. If you're among the top two safeties in this class, that's saying something. I go with a wide receiver in Round 2, which isn't a huge need but might be a quiet one given the departure of Greg Jennings. It's at least a nice bit of depth, something you don't want to be short of given how well Aaron Rodgers can balance his distribution. Lastly, I grab Williams at No. 88, a defensive line value that's pretty good considering he's No. 71 in my rankings.

Minnesota Vikings

Top needs: WR, CB, MLB, DT, DE

Rd. 1 (23) WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
Rd. 2 (35) DT John Jenkins, Georgia (via Philadelphia)
Rd. 2 (52) LB Jonathan Bostic, Florida
Rd. 3 (83) DE Lavar Edwards, LSU

Analysis: A bet on Patterson is a bet that he'll develop as a route-runner, but he's already a major threat with the ball in his hands, and he'll be a guy capable of making plays on the ball in coverage. So he doesn't need to become Jerry Rice as a technician in Year 1 to give the Vikings something they don't have. Now without Percy Harvin, they need a playmaker, and Patterson qualifies. Jenkins is a huge but nimble clogger up the middle, and provides insurance against the decline of Kevin Williams, who is now 32. Bostic is the middle linebacker I really need playing the role of Rick Spielman for this exercise. And with both Jared Allen and Brian Robison over 30, Edwards is a good guy to develop at defensive end.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Top needs: CB, G, LB, DE, TE

Rd. 1 (30) TE Zach Ertz, Stanford
Rd. 2 (60) CB Tyrann Mathieu, LSU
Rd. 3 (92) G Brian Winters, Kent St.

Analysis: I know tight end isn't my top need, but if New England takes yet another corner in front of me at No. 30, and with the top two guards already gone, getting a very good pass-catcher at tight end makes a lot of sense. Not only is Ertz a good guy to watch and learn from Tony Gonzalez for a season, he's a legit threat in his own right, a guy capable of making catches all over the field. There's no reason Atlanta couldn't get them both on the field at once. I'm taking Mathieu in Round 2. (I don't know if he falls that far in the real draft, based on how teams are starting to see him.) In Round 3, I get the guard prospect I need.

Carolina Panthers

Top needs: CB, DT, FS, RT, WR

Rd. 1 (14) DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
Rd. 2 (44) WR Robert Woods, USC

Analysis: He's had some inconsistencies, but I'm making a bet on Richardson at a position where I desperately need the help. The Panthers simply got pushed around too often up front and relied on their linebackers to make tackles. I think Sylvester Williams is also a possibility here, but I have a slightly higher grade on Richardson and will stick with him. And yes, Tavon Austin is also a thought here. In Round 2, I get a refined route-runner in Woods, a player who can contribute immediately. Woods is never really mentioned as a big-play guy (I'm not sure he can't be) and will of course carry the recent stigma about USC wide receivers, but he can really play and I think will come in with a chip on his shoulder and produce.

New Orleans Saints

Top needs: OLB, LT, DE, SS, NT

Rd. 1 (15) LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
Rd. 3 (75) OLB Jamie Collins, Southern Miss

Analysis: If you're curious as to why I'd take Te'o in Round 1, it has a lot to do with how the board sets up and how the defensive depth chart sets up. The Saints need to upgrade the talent on defense, period. The pass rush in the 3-4 is of particular concern. However, with Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo off the board, I'm reaching if I target an OLB at that slot. Pretty badly, in fact. Next, the defensive line at least has some youth. The Saints used their first pick on presumptive starter at NT Akiem Hicks last year. And they used a first-rounder on Cameron Jordan the year before. So it was either a corner or a linebacker, and the cornerback value is also not good at No. 15. So Te'o is the pick, providing an immediate starter and the chance to move some people around to maximize the unit. Later, I grab an extremely productive 3-4 OLB in Collins. With 20 tackles for loss last season, Collins was disruptive and could be a useful pass-rusher even as a rookie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Top needs: CB, DT, TE, LB, DE

Rd. 1 (13) DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Rd. 2 (43) CB D.J. Hayden, Houston
Rd. 3 (73) TE Vance McDonald, Rice

Analysis: As Gruden cautions on Lotulelei, he's a very good run-stopper, but isn't a dynamic pass-rusher. Well, I don't think he needs to be a great pass-rusher. With Gerald McCoy there, I think there's a good balance of a player with the ability to penetrate and cause some timing problems for offenses. Lotulelei also has exceptional instincts and push against the run. Sure, the Darrelle Revis deal could happen, but I'm the GM here, and I'm not pulling the trigger on that while getting a nice value with Hayden in Round 2. In Round 3, I grab a tight end prospect who can help add some diversity to the offense in a season when Josh Freeman needs to take yet another step forward.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Top needs: OLB, OT, G, S, DE, QB

Rd. 1 (7) OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
Rd. 2 (38) DE Margus Hunt, SMU
Rd. 3 (69) S Eric Reid, LSU

Analysis: I know it's shocking that I don't get an offensive lineman, but there are two important factors. One, the board sets up really poorly for it at No. 7 without a trade up, and I already had San Diego moving up for Lane Johnson at No. 6. So that's three tackles off the board when this pick arrives at No. 7. And I can assure you, this is very much a possibility next week -- all three top tackles could be gone by No. 6. Mingo is also a great fit for this defense and gives it a high-ceiling pass-rusher. I then grab Hunt at No. 38. I can see him landing late in Round 1 for a couple of teams, and I think he can become a 3-4 DE. Finally, I get a much-needed safety in Round 3. The offensive line is an issue, but the board didn't offer great value at each slot. Perhaps a developmental tackle prospect such as David Quessenberry would make sense in Round 3 (I considered it), but I also think the Cardinals' tackles can take a step forward this season after being rushed into action last season.

St. Louis Rams

Top needs: S, WR, RB, G, OLB

Rd. 1 (16) WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Rd. 1 (22) RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama
Rd. 2 (46) S Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse
Rd. 3 (78) G Hugh Thornton, Illinois

Analysis: The Rams have fewer major needs than you might think, but there are a couple of clear ones that need to be addressed, and Round 1 offers solutions. Austin is the threat they need at wide receiver, offering more than merely a replacement for Danny Amendola. Then I take a pick I don't necessarily think they would by grabbing Lacy at No. 22. It qualifies a bit as a luxury selection, but with Steven Jackson no longer around, a runner with some pop at the point of attack and the ability to thrive in short yardage is something they'll miss. Lacy fills that role. Thomas is an athletic freak at safety, and the value matches the slot in the middle of Round 2. Then I grab a nice guard prospect in Round 3 -- that's a position of need. I feel like I've improved the offense and hit the biggest need on defense.

San Francisco 49ers

Top needs: FS, TE, DL, CB, WR

Rd. 1 (31) DE Datone Jones, UCLA
Rd. 2 (34) S Matt Elam, Florida (via Kansas City)
Rd. 2 (61) TE Dion Sims, Michigan St.
Rd. 3 (74) DT Jesse Williams, Alabama (via Carolina)
Rd. 3 (93) (Traded to Chicago)

Analysis: Datonesetter! That's not my nickname -- that's the one Gruden gave Jones, a player he really likes on tape. I drafted Jones to rotate in as a 3-4 DE and provide some rest to the great Justin Smith, who will be 34 in September. I get the safety this team needs early in Round 2. Elam has great instincts, and the coaches will love him. Sims isn't a brilliant pass-catcher, but he's a physical presence and can drag defenders with him, helping to fill the hole left by the departure of Delanie Walker. Finally, I grab Williams in Round 3 to work in as the future nose tackle. That second third-round pick I sent to the Bears for a future two. I'm feeling pretty good about this roster anyway -- it's time to stock up for the future.

Seattle Seahawks

Top needs: DT, OLB, OL, CB, TE

Rd. 2 (56) DT Kawann Short, Purdue
Rd. 3 (87) TE Gavin Escobar, San Diego St.

Analysis: My first-round pick went to Minnesota for Harvin, but I can hit a couple of needs by taking advantage of where the draft is pretty deep. First, I get a borderline first-round talent well down the board with Short. I can see him going higher next week, but for this exercise he landed here. Next, I get the tight end with maybe the best hands in the draft outside of Tyler Eifert. Escobar didn't run particularly well in Indy, but the tape shows a guy who can really snatch the ball well away from his body. He's a big target for quarterback Russell Wilson, who is just going to get better and better at identifying good matchups and where defenses are soft.
Click to expand...

Kiper's 'Grade A' draft pick by pick

Grade A pick-by pick

In the Grade A draft, I make a pick for each team at each spot, based on my projected needs and my prospect grades. Again, it is not a mock draft, but instead a look at how I would pick for each team at each spot.

You've seen the team summaries{ABOVE}, but here's a pick-by-pick experience so you can see how the board sets up.

One final note: You'll see some of the teams are italicized; this means they obtained that pick via an imaginary draft-day trade. And if you look below, you can see that's exactly how my Grade A draft begins.

1. Detroit Lions (via Kansas City)

Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
The next three teams in the draft like Milliner, so Detroit moves up to get him.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
The top player on my draft board for a team that has too often whiffed on value.

3. Oakland Raiders

Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
The Raiders need to upgrade talent in every area on defense, and Floyd is versatile.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
I go for Jordan to give the Eagles a needed pass-rusher opposite Connor Barwin.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (via Detroit)

Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Move down, add a pick or two for the future, and still get a needed tackle. Win-win.

6. San Diego Chargers (via Cleveland)

Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Maybe no team needs an offensive tackle more. Johnson can help.

7. Arizona Cardinals

Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU
A tackle also fits, but the board doesn't set up well for one unless they move up.

8. Buffalo Bills

Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Mario Williams goes back to a 4-3, but it's not pretty after that. Ansah fits.

9. New York Jets

Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Finally, Rex Ryan has a pass-rusher off the edge.

10. Tennessee Titans

Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
They have Andy Levitre, but that's only half the equation for this makeover.

11. Cleveland Browns (via San Diego)

Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
Trade down and still get a much-needed guard. Trent Richardson approves.

12. Miami Dolphins

D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Fluker is a slight reach here, but he fills a big need at right tackle.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
They have one really good D-tackle in Gerald McCoy. Lotulelei will help shut down the run.

14. Carolina Panthers

Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The first spot where Tavon Austin could go, but Richardson is needed on defense.

15. New Orleans Saints

Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
There's not a spot on defense where they don't need help. I think Te'o will produce.

16. St. Louis Rams

Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
QB Sam Bradford gets the slot threat he needs.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
They lose Mike Wallace, but Eifert creates a new wrinkle for the offense.

18. Dallas Cowboys

Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
An aging defensive line gets an infusion of youth and energy.

19. New York Giants

Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
The Giants never draft linebackers in Round 1! Well, I'm the GM here.

20. Chicago Bears

Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
A slight reach on value, but not on need. Long's versatility helps.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Also a fit for St. Louis and Dallas before this slot. Easy call here.

22. St. Louis (from Washington)

Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
I don't like taking RBs in Round 1, but this is an exception with two first-rounders.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
They need a wide receiver and Patterson offers a run-after-catch threat.

24. Indianapolis Colts

Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Best need pick for the value at this slot. Wait on the pass-rusher.

25. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota)

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Big splash. I move up for the Eagles to get Smith, but they can wait on starts.

26. Green Bay Packers

Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
Safety is a big need, and No. 2 in this class isn't much of a knock.

27. Houston Texans

Menelik Watson, OT, Florida St.
The Texans need a right tackle, and Watson can help as he develops.

28. Denver Broncos

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St.
The Broncos better get a piece or two in the secondary out of this draft.

29. New England Patriots

Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise St.
Good spot to trade down. In my draft, they get the corner they need.

30. Atlanta Falcons

Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Apprentice to Tony Gonzalez, but also a threat in his own right.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

Ideal player to develop and work in behind Justin Smith.

32. Baltimore Ravens

Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
Help on the interior at linebacker is a must. Minter is your starter.

Second Round

Notes: Cleveland Browns (2012 supplemental draft) and New Orleans Saints (forfeited due to bounty penalties) do not own 2013 second-round picks. Because the Chiefs and Jaguars tied with the worst record, they alternate picking first each round.

33. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Capable of pushing to be starter, but isn't a bad value here.

34. San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City)

Matt Elam, S, Florida
Fills a need at safety, and they'd be happy to get him this late.

35. Minnesota Vikings (from Philadelphia)

John Jenkins, DL, Georgia
Kevin Williams is no longer a young defensive tackle.

36. Detroit Lions

Bjoern Werner , DE, Florida St.
I landed a corner for them in Round 1, now it's on to DE.

37. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)

Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
Maybe a luxury pick, but they really need a little more pop out of RB.

38. Arizona Cardinals

Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
Not locked into a position, but capable of providing pass-rush help.

39. New York Jets

Justin Pugh, OG, Syracuse
They need a guard, and Pugh can fill in at center or tackle, too.

40. Tennessee Titans

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
In need of another threat in the passing game, Hunter has elite speed.

41. Buffalo Bills

Keenan Allen, WR, Cal
His stock has been higher, but I like the fit at this spot.

42. Miami Dolphins

Tank Carradine, DE, Florida St.
He might need a redshirt year, but could be a steal when healthy.

43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
If not for a freak injury last year, we're looking at a Round 1 player.

44. Carolina Panthers

Robert Woods, WR, USC
Great route-runner, he provides some cover for the aging Steve Smith.

45. San Diego Chargers

Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas St.
Athletic and dependable, he'd start immediately for the Chargers.

46. St. Louis Rams

Shamarko Thomas, S, Syracuse
The safety star of the combine, Thomas can fly to the ball.

47. Dallas Cowboys

Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
Not sexy, but they really need another guard and the board sets up for this.

48. Pittsburgh Steelers

Cornelius Washington, OLB, Georgia
I hand them another pass-rusher for a defense that needs youth.

49. New York Giants

Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
They've lost another pass-rusher to free agency, and the unit was weak in 2012 anyway.

50. Chicago Bears

Sio Moore, LB, Connecticut
Word on the street is they might need some youth at linebacker.

51. Washington Redskins

D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina
The Redskins need a safety who can start immediately. Here you go.

52. Minnesota Vikings

Jonathan Bostic, LB, Florida
Patience pays off (for me, I guess), as Bostic can step in at middle linebacker.

53. Cincinnati Bengals

Khaseem Greene, LB, Rutgers
A great fit at weakside linebacker, Greene has great instincts and attacks the ball.

54. Miami Dolphins (from Indianapolis)

Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut
Wide range of opinion on him, but he's a steal this low.

55. Green Bay Packers

DeAndre Hopkins , WR, Clemson
Greg Jennings is gone, and they could use another piece to bring along.

56. Seattle Seahawks

Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
They need a defensive tackle, and Short looks like a steal this late.

57. Houston Texans

Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
Patton is hugely productive, and the Texans really need a reliable No. 2 WR.

58. Denver Broncos

Damontre Moore , DE, Texas A&M
A situational pass-rusher to start, Moore is young and could become even more.

59. New England Patriots

Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon St.
He's not a big name, but Wheaton will run by defenders.

60. Atlanta Falcons

Tyrann Mathieu , CB, LSU
This early? Believe me, there are smart folks who see him much earlier.

61. San Francisco 49ers

Dion Sims, TE, Michigan St.
Gives them a prospect to replace Delanie Walker.

62. Baltimore Ravens

Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Extremely athletic; the question is whether he can make the jump in competition.

Third Round

63. Kansas City Chiefs

J.J. Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern
They need another safety to pair with Eric Berry.

64. Jacksonville Jaguars

Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi St.
I had cornerback as a top need, and some teams see Banks as a late-first value.

65. Detroit Lions

Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall
A playmaker, Dobson fills a peculiar hole for the Lions. Yes, WR is a need.

66. Oakland Raiders

Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St.
The best player available as they rebuild from a talent standpoint on D.

67. Philadelphia Eagles

Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon St.
They have a pass-rusher and a QB to develop, now they get a needed corner.

68. Cleveland Browns

EJ Manuel, QB, Florida St.
They've added a third-rounder, so they can take a chance on Manuel's ceiling.

69. Arizona Cardinals

Eric Reid, S, LSU
A tackle also makes sense, but the value is far higher with this pick.

70. Tennessee Titans

Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
He's inconsistent, but I like the value equation at this point.

71. Buffalo Bills

Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse
My guess is he'll be gone long before this, but this is a good destination.

72. New York Jets

Shawn Williams, S, Georgia
Safety has been a constant problem, and Williams would help right away.

73. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
Another option in the passing game at a position where they're merely OK.

74. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)

Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
They lost a nose tackle, but Williams could step in for depth up front.

75. New Orleans Saints

Jamie Collins, LB, Southern Miss
Hugely productive for an awful team, Collins is the pass-rusher they need.

76. Cleveland Browns (from San Diego)

Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi St.
Plenty of teams see him going in Round 2.

77. Miami Dolphins

David Amerson, CB, NC St.
Led the nation in INTs in 2011, but freelanced too often in 2012.

78. St. Louis Rams

Hugh Thornton, OG, Illinois
They've hit some other needs, so adding help at guard makes sense here.

79. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M
A third-round receiver? They've done it before, and Swope can really run.

80. Dallas Cowboys

Joe Kruger, DE, Utah
They need to add a more conventional 4-3 DE for the scheme shift.

81. New York Giants

Jordan Reed, TE, Florida
A new passing element for the offense, Reed can be a matchup headache.

82. Miami (from Chicago)

Kyle Juszczyk, FB, Harvard
It's a quiet need, but they will have to add a fullback. Juszczyk is the best available.

83. Minnesota Vikings

Lavar Edwards, DE, LSU
I've hit other big needs, so developing a DE is a good idea.

84. Cincinnati Bengals

Denard Robinson, WR, Michigan
Few players in this draft are as scary with the ball in their hands as Robinson is.

85. Washington Redskins

Robert Alford, CB, S.E. Louisiana
They need an overhaul in the secondary. Here's another piece.

86. Indianapolis Colts

Trevardo Williams, OLB, UConn
Gives them another 3-4 edge rusher to bring along.

87. Seattle Seahawks

Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego St.
Great hands and good length, he gives them an insurance policy.

88. Green Bay Packers

Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern
A huge interior defender, and another threat against the run.

89. Houston Texans

Steve Beauharnais, LB, Rutgers
He's my No. 70 overall prospect, so don't knock the value.

90. Denver Broncos

Barrett Jones, C, Alabama
Smart lineman, meet Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning, meet smart lineman.

91. New England Patriots

Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
They never forget that O-line entirely, and Frederick could play now if needed.

92. Atlanta Falcons

Brian Winters, G, Kent St.
Guard is a need a year after they drafted one, and Winters makes sense here.

93. Chicago (from San Francisco)

Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Hugely productive, he'd give them an over-the-top threat.

94. Baltimore Ravens

Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno St.
They need a safety, and I take advantage of a deep board here.

95. Houston Texans (compensatory pick)

Lonnie Pryor, FB, Florida St.
The most athletic fullback in the draft, Pryor should stick.

96. Kansas City Chiefs (compensatory pick)

Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State
Better have some developing insurance with Andy Reid as coach.

97. Tennessee Titans (compensatory pick)

John Simon, DE, Ohio St.
A relentless player, Simon can help but also serves as a thermostat and will raise the temperature of the team.
Click to expand...

J.R. · Apr 23, 2013

Kiper Mock Draft 4.1

2013 NFL Mock Draft 4.1

The long-awaited trade of Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay is finally done. With the Jets securing the No. 13 overall pick in this year's draft, the first-round projection obviously changes. Below, you'll see that reflected.

However, on Wednesday I'll have several other shifts, as I'm in the midst of talking with a number of sources now. So what you see below is more of an adjustment on my latest mock particularly as it pertains to the Jets.

Remember, I can't project trades below, so while I see several that could happen, I'll just note possibilities.

Draft-eligible non-seniors are denoted by an asterisk.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Joeckel*, OT, Texas A&M
The best player available in the draft, and he fits a position of need.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Pass rush is a significant issue, and Ansah offers a high ceiling.

3. Oakland Raiders
Sharrif Floyd*, DT, Florida
They need production and versatility up front, and Floyd will provide both.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
More inclined to believe they'll trade up from their Round 2 pick to get him later in Round 1, but can't reflect that here.

5. Detroit Lions
Dee Milliner*, CB, Alabama
They need help at cornerback, and Milliner is the best one on the board.

6. Cleveland Browns
Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon
A perfect fit for their scheme. If he gets here, I expect them to pounce.

7. Arizona Cardinals
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Does he get past Detroit? That's a question I'll ask a lot of folks this week.

8. Buffalo Bills
Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
They solidify a pretty good offensive line if they land this elite left guard.

9. New York Jets
Barkevious Mingo*, DE/OLB, LSU
Rex Ryan gets the pass-rusher he needs.

10. Tennessee Titans
Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
The Titans don't pass on the draft's premier run-game destroyer.

11. San Diego Chargers
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
My guess is they'll need to trade up for Johnson. Expect a change here.

12. Miami Dolphins
D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
They could easily move up to get Johnson or Fisher as well.

13. New York Jets (from Tampa)
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
They have a need at guard, and Warmack will be a dominant one.

14. Carolina Panthers
Sheldon Richardson*, DT, Missouri
They simply have to get better at defensive tackle. Sylvester Williams also fits.

15. New Orleans Saints
Jarvis Jones*, OLB, Georgia
A productive pass-rusher in a 3-4 is just what the Saints need.

16. St. Louis Rams
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
Danny Amendola departs, but the versatile Austin can more than replace him.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
He'll cause major matchup headaches and adds a new element to the offense.

18. Dallas Cowboys
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
An aging defensive interior gets a jolt of youth and productivity.

19. New York Giants
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
They need an immediate starter at corner, and Trufant could be the guy.

20. Chicago Bears
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
They added help in free agency, but this could be a big need soon enough.

21. Cincinnati Bengals
Alec Ogletree*, ILB, Georgia
They're too slow at linebacker, and Ogletree is a guy who can actually cover.

22. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
If the Rams leave Round 1 with Austin and Vaccaro, pop the champagne.

23. Minnesota Vikings
Cordarrelle Patterson*, WR, Tennessee
He needs reps, but if you can get the ball in his hands, he creates points.

24. Indianapolis Colts
Xavier Rhodes*, CB, Florida State
The value lines up at a position of need.

25. Minnesota Vikings
Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
The Vikings might wait for a middle linebacker, but Minter can start right away.

26. Green Bay Packers
Eddie Lacy*, RB, Alabama
A running back is going to go somewhere in Round 1, and I like this fit.

27. Houston Texans
Robert Woods *, WR, USC
A route-runner with great hands, underrated speed and a chip on his shoulder.

28. Denver Broncos
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
He could prove to be one of the steals of this draft. Denver needs a CB.

29. New England Patriots
Justin Hunter*, WR, Tennessee
New England really needs a WR who can push safeties back. They could also trade down.

30. Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Long, OL, Oregon
A versatile lineman, Long fills an immediate void at guard and could become an OT.

31. San Francisco 49ers
Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
The 49ers have bet on athletes before and succeeded. Hunt provides depth.

32. Baltimore Ravens
Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
The Ravens need another safety, and Cyprien can capably start in Week 1.
Click to expand...

McShay Mock Draft 5.1

2013 NFL Mock Draft 5.1

The long-rumored Darrelle Revis trade has been finalized with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sending the No. 13 overall pick to the New York Jets for the All-Pro corner, which means I'm filing yet another mock draft update. We'll call this version 5.1.

Even before we reach the Jets' first pick at No. 9, there are some significant changes. At No. 6, I have the Browns taking Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert, the highest he has been in any of my mocks. It was a tough call with CB Dee Milliner still on the board, but it could happen.

Two picks later, Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib makes his first appearance in the first round going to the Bills at No. 8. It should be noted that Geno Smith, my top-rated QB is still likely to go in Round 1 but I continue to struggle to find him a home without the ability to forecast trades.

In my mock 5.0, I had the Jets taking Milliner, but Barkevious Mingo was my choice in the second scenario. In this mock, the Jets take Mingo.

With the 13th pick, I have the Jets taking Tavon Austin, who, ironically, is the player I had slotted for the Buccaneers. Now that I think about it, why did I mess with this thing in the first place? Oh we'll, it's done now.

There are also more changes at the bottom of the draft.

Draft-eligible non-seniors are denoted by an asterisk.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Joeckel*, OT, Texas A&M

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

3. Oakland Raiders
Sharrif Floyd*, DT, Florida

4. Philadelphia Eagles
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

5. Detroit Lions
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

6. Cleveland Browns
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

7. Arizona Cardinals
Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

8. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

9. New York Jets
Barkevious Mingo*, DE/OLB, LSU

10. Tennessee Titans
Dee Milliner*, CB, Alabama

11. San Diego Chargers
Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

12. Miami Dolphins
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

13. New York Jets (from Buccaneers)
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

14. Carolina Panthers
Star Lotulelei, DL, Utah

15. New Orleans Saints
D.J. Fluker*, OT, Alabama

16. St. Louis Rams
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jarvis Jones*, OLB, Georgia

18. Dallas Cowboys
Sheldon Richardson*, DT, Missouri

19. New York Giants
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston

20. Chicago Bears
Alec Ogletree*, ILB, Georgia

21. Cincinnati Bengals
Cordarrelle Patterson*, WR, Tennessee

22. St. Louis (from Washington)
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

23. Minnesota Vikings
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

24. Indianapolis Colts
Xavier Rhodes*, CB, Florida St.

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame

26. Green Bay Packers
Matt Elam*, S, Florida

27. Houston Texans
Justin Hunter *, WR, Tennessee

28. Denver Broncos
Bjoern Werner*, DE, Florida St.

29. New England Patriots
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

30. Atlanta Falcons
Justin Pugh*, OG, Syracuse

31. San Francisco 49ers
Zach Ertz*, TE, Stanford

32. Baltimore Ravens
Eric Reid, S, LSU
Click to expand...

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2013 NFL Draft - McShay Mock Draft

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