I hear this is an overall weak draft, so why would you take Moran and get some overslot guys in the 2nd and 3rd? Better to take THE best talent with 1-1. Colin Moran has plenty of questions defensively and has questionable future power.
I was on the Frazier bandwagon in February and I'm not going to jump off now. The kid is going to be a star. If it wasn't such a long term commitment, I would put $50 on Frazier having a better career than Bryant or Moran. Remind me in 15 years of this post.
LIVE: Jim Callis BA, Chuck Johnson PP and Nick Faleris of BP Join Us To Talk About The Draft Three excellent podcasts. Three experts. No consensus for 1.1.
Law's latest mock: 1. Houston - Colin Moran POS: 3B B/T: R/R HT: 6-3 WT: 215 School: North Carolina Analysis: The only change from what I wrote last week is that Kris Bryant is still alive to be this pick, with both Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel still options. I do not believe the Astros will make a final decision until Wednesday or Thursday; they didn't settle on Carlos Correa at No. 1 overall until a few minutes before the actual pick last year.
Notes from the NCAA tournament • Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray may not have the stranglehold on the top pick that many once believed, but he made a good case for earning that right on Friday, with one noticeable caveat. Gray struggled in the first two innings, but settled down to hold Coastal Carolina to just three runs while walking just one and striking out 12 Chanticleers in a 7-3 victory for the Sooners. Unfortunately, Gray was allowed to throw a whopping 130 pitches over his nine innings of work, a dangerously high pitch count at any point of the year. “There were some less-than-ideal things, but some encouraging moments as well,” an NL scout said. “It’s good to see him bounce back from the early struggles. Coastal Carolina has a good lineup and they will make you battle, and I think he did that [Friday]. With that being said, that pitch count is pretty exorbitant, no matter if he isn’t pitching for another week or another year.” • Kris Bryant had a massive West Coast Conference tournament to get San Diego into the NCAA field, but it wasn’t a huge weekend -- at least by his standards -- for the Toreros slugger. Bryant went 2-for-9 in his three games as San Diego advanced to the regional final against UCLA over the weekend, and also drew three walks. While Bryant has long been assumed to end up in Colorado with the No. 3 pick, recent developments suggest that he is still in the running to go to the Astros with the first overall pick. “I’d certainly consider [taking him first],” an NL East scout said. “This all depends on cost, of course. But I don’t know why you wouldn’t consider the best bat in the class with the first pick. If [Mark] Appel or Gray were [Stephen] Strasburg then it’s not even debatable, but they’re not. If you take any other bat with the No. 1 overall pick, it’s a mistake.” • It wasn’t a great ACC tournament for North Carolina’s Colin Moran, and he wasn’t at his best during the Chapel Hill regional, either. Moran went 3-for-13 over his first three games of the regional, with two walks and one strikeout. Even with the struggles, though, Moran still looks like a top-five lock, and might have usurped Gray as the favorite to go to Houston come Thursday. “I don’t see it,” an AL East executive said. “He’s a nice player, he’s got one of the better hit tools in this draft, but I don’t see any way you can take him with the first pick over guys like Appel and Bryant and Gray. I implicitly understand the thought process of signing him for half the allotted fee or whatever Houston and his people work out, but it would be two years in a row of not getting the best talent on the board. And in this case, I think not even one of the top three talents available. I’m not sure if that’s good process”
Yep, definite leverage. Really a non-issue except he's going to have to go through more testing after the draft, and we can now fairly say that his "risk" has increased. More risk, lower price.
Impact of Gray's positive stimulant test MLB teams learned a few days ago that Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray tested positive for the banned stimulant Adderall during the league's mandatory drug testing for the top 200 prospects in each draft class (as determined by their internal scouting bureau). Because many current big leaguers use the drug after gaining Therapeutic Use Exemptions (TUEs) from the league, Gray's test results aren't likely to significantly affect his draft stock, although there could be some subtle ripple effects. Although Adderall is best known as a drug used to treat ADHD, it's actually an amphetamine -- two amphetamine salts combined in one pill. Using “greenies” without a prescription has been a federal crime since 1970 and has been banned by baseball since 2005, but in a 2003 interview Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn estimated that half of then-current big leaguers were using amphetamines. The drug's many off-label uses include increasing wakefulness and focus and facilitating weight loss. Gray, who I have going No. 4 to the Twins in my latest mock draft, did improve his conditioning substantially for the 2013 season, crediting improved nutrition and increased weight training; his velocity was already in the mid-90s before his junior year, with his command improving this spring along with the bite on his slider. Teams I've spoken with indicated they're not seriously troubled by the positive test result, although they felt it indicated that his judgment was poor. It also appears that his bonus expectations will be lower now that he has the unfavorable result on his scouting bureau medical report. The perverse incentives of the current draft bonus system -- teams incur huge penalties if they exceed their spending allotment -- could mean that Gray is now more likely to go first overall than he was before the test result became known. If the Astros (or any other team) believes that his ability and performance are in no way connected to his Adderall use, then they could get the same player at a lower bonus figure, thus saving more money to spend on later picks. One source indicated to me that he felt that Gray would sign for a "huge" discount if drafted at or near the top, although that speculation was not attached to specific dollar amounts. On the other hand, other players in the top 10 may look better by comparison simply because they don't have the same red flag on their medicals, something that those players' advisers will probably broach in any conversations with teams leading up to Thursday's first round.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Yc7mjoO9k Good view from behind. Throwing 100mph in the 9th. Needs to improve his command with the fastball and work at changing speeds. Consistency of his slider needs work as well, but when it's on, it's a knockout pitch. Changeup needs developing.
Keith Law's final top 100 draft prospects Spoiler 1. Mark Appel POS: RHP HT: 6-5 WT: 215 School: Stanford Analysis: He's a polished, athletic college right-hander with three above-average to plus pitches, clearly the top talent in this year's class. PREVIOUS RANK: 1 2. Kris Bryant POS: 3B/OF B/T: R/R HT: 6-5 WT: 215 School: San Diego Analysis: Bryant's kind of right-handed power is very hard to find, and even if he ends up in right field he's athletic enough to be good there. PREVIOUS RANK: 3 3. Jonathan Gray POS: RHP HT: 6-4 WT: 239 School: Oklahoma Analysis: Shows two plus pitches and had much better conditioning and fastball command this year, although it remains to be seen if his positive test for the amphetamine Adderall hurts his stock at all. PREVIOUS RANK: 2 4. Kohl Stewart POS: RHP HT: 6-3 WT: 190 School: St. Pius X (Houston) Analysis: He has been up to 97 mph with a plus slider and two other workable pitches, as well as a scholarship to play quarterback at Texas A&M once Johnny Football departs. That football scholarship gives him a little bit more leverage than your typical prospect in contract negotiations. PREVIOUS RANK: 5 5. Austin Meadows POS: OF B/T: L/L HT: 6-3 WT: 200 School: Grayson (Ga.) HS Analysis: A huge raw talent, bringing football size and athleticism to baseball, but he hasn't exploded on the diamond the way you'd expect given his tools. PREVIOUS RANK: 4 6. Braden Shipley POS: RHP HT: 6-3 WT: 190 School: Nevada Analysis: A converted position player who didn't start pitching full time until 2012, Shipley is up to 97 mph with a plus changeup and a chance for an above-average curveball. PREVIOUS RANK: 6 7. Clint Frazier POS: OF B/T: R/R HT: 6-0 WT: 190 School: Loganville (Ga.) HS Analysis: Frazier has the best bat speed in the draft, bar none -- some of the best ever for a draft prospect, in fact -- but he's a sub-6-foot right-handed hitter who'll end up in a corner outfield spot. That's not a profile typically associated with All-Stars. PREVIOUS RANK: 7 8. Trey Ball POS: LHP/OF HT: 6-6 WT: 180 School: New Castle (Ind.) HS Analysis: Ball could be drafted as a hitter or pitcher and is in contention for the draft's best athlete. He's a little better on the mound, where he's up to 94 with feel for a breaking ball. PREVIOUS RANK: 14 9. Colin Moran POS: 3B HT: 6-3 WT: 215 School: North Carolina Analysis: The best pure hitter among college bats, Moran should stay at third because of his hands and arm, but hasn't performed well on Friday nights when he's typically facing opponents' best starters. PREVIOUS RANK: 9 10. Sean Manaea POS: LHP HT: 6-5 WT: 235 School: Indiana State Analysis: A huge wild card, Manaea starred last summer in the Cape Cod League but fought a sore hip nearly all spring, walking off the mound in pain at the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, and could fall out of the first round depending on what his medicals say. PREVIOUS RANK: 8 11. Dominic Smith POS: 1B B/T: L/L HT: 6-0 WT: 195 School: Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.) Analysis: A pretty left-handed swing and a plus arm will go a long way even if you're "only" a high school first baseman, typically a risky class of player in the first round because you are already on the low end of the defensive spectrum. PREVIOUS RANK: 10 12. Hunter Renfroe POS: OF B/T: R/R HT: 6-1 WT: 216 School: Mississippi State Analysis: Huge tools, comparable to Austin Meadows', but in a college player with no track record of performance prior to this year. PREVIOUS RANK: 11 13. Ryne Stanek POS: RHP HT: 6-4 WT: 190 School: Arkansas Analysis: Came into the year as a potential top-five pick, and still has the same stuff, including a fastball up to 99 mph, just with mediocre performances exacerbated by Arkansas jerking him around their weekend rotation. PREVIOUS RANK: 13 14. J.P. Crawford POS: SS B/T: L/R HT: 6-2 WT: 175 School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS Analysis: In a draft with few true shortstops, Crawford stands out as the most likely to stay at the position, also bringing some feel for hitting but looking like a long-term prospect who might be five years out. PREVIOUS RANK: 12 15. Austin Wilson POS: OF B/T: R/R HT: 6-5 WT: 245 School: Stanford Analysis: He suffered a stress reaction above his right elbow on opening day and never fully recovered; he still has the size and easy power to merit a first-round pick. PREVIOUS RANK: 15 16. Alex Gonzalez POS: RHP HT: 6-3 WT: 200 School: Oral Roberts Analysis: Gonzalez sits 90-93 with his fastball but has the best cutter in the draft and a very high ground ball rate, making him appealing to teams who value that specific skill as well as overall tools. PREVIOUS RANK: 16 17. Aaron Judge POS: OF B/T: R/R HT: 6-7 WT: 255 School: Fresno State Analysis: The definition of high-risk, high-reward, as Judge has few physical comparisons in the history of the majors, but if a team can unlock the power in his size and strength, he's a potential 30-homer bat who can play solid defense in an outfield corner. PREVIOUS RANK: 17 18. Nick Ciuffo POS: C B/T: L/R HT: 6-1 WT: 200 School: Lexington (S.C.) HS Analysis: The best receiving catcher in the draft, Ciuffo has the potential for above-average power down the road and plays with a tremendous amount of energy. PREVIOUS RANK: 18 19. Reese McGuire POS: C B/T: L/R HT: 6-1 WT: 190 School: Kentwood HS (Kent, Wash.) Analysis: A plus-plus throwing catcher who should help cut down the running game, McGuire has caught and hit better this spring than he did on the showcase circuit last summer. PREVIOUS RANK: 19 20. Devin Williams POS: RHP HT: 6-3 WT: 172 School: Hazelwood West HS (Hazelwood, Mo.) Analysis: Williams is one of the top prep arms in the country, with an athletic build and delivery reminiscent of Mariners prospect Taijuan Walker's and a chance for three above-average or better pitches. PREVIOUS RANK: 20 21. Kyle Serrano POS: RHP HT: 6-0 WT: 185 School: Farragut (Tenn.) HS Analysis: Kyle is the son of Tennessee coach Dave Serrano and is slated to be the Vols' Friday night starter in 2014, but his plus curveball might never make it to Knoxville except as a spectator. PREVIOUS RANK: 21 22. Jon Denney POS: C B/T: R/R HT: 6-2 WT: 205 School: Yukon (Okla.) HS Analysis: The best offensive catcher in this solid crop of high school backstops, Denney hasn't caught or thrown as well this spring as he did on the showcase circuit but still has the highest upside at the plate in that group. PREVIOUS RANK: 22 23. Marco Gonzales POS: LHP HT: 6-1 WT: 185 School: Gonzaga Analysis: A low-upside, high-probability left-hander with a plus changeup and above-average breaking ball but a lack of size and a fastball that might end up in the upper 80s when he pitches every fifth day. PREVIOUS RANK: 23 24. Hunter Harvey POS: RHP HT: 6-3 WT: 175 School: Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.) Analysis: The son of former big league reliever Bryan Harvey, Hunter has an easy low-90s fastball and the chance for a plus breaking ball as well as a very athletic frame. PREVIOUS RANK: 24 25. Chris Anderson POS: RHP HT: 6-4 WT: 225 School: Jacksonville Analysis: An up-and-down spring spurred by overuse at Jacksonville knocked Anderson out of top-10 contention, but his velocity perked up near the end of the year and he's flashed a plus slider as well. PREVIOUS RANK: 25 RANK PLAYER POS SCHOOL 26 Eric Jagielo 3B Notre Dame 27 Andrew Thurman RHP UC Irvine 28 Billy McKinney OF Plano (Texas) West Senior HS 29 Connor Jones RHP Great Bridge HS (Chesapeake, Va.) 30 Matt Krook LHP St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.) 31 Cody Reed LHP Northwest Miss. CC 32 Aaron Blair RHP Marshall 33 Rob Kaminsky LHP St. Joseph's HS (Englewood Cliffs, NJ) 34 DJ Peterson OF New Mexico 35 Andrew Mitchell RHP TCU 36 Wil Crowe RHP Pigeon Forge (Tenn.) HS 37 Tim Anderson SS East Central CC 38 Hunter Dozier SS Stephen F. Austin 39 Dustin Peterson SS Gilbert (Ariz.) HS 40 Blake Taylor LHP Dana Hills (Calif.) HS 41 Travis Demerritte SS Winder-Barrow (Ga.) HS 42 Hunter Green LHP Warren East HS (Bowling Green, Ky.) 43 Ian Clarkin LHP Madison HS (San Diego) 44 Ryan Boldt OF Red Wing (Minn.) HS 45 Jacob Brentz LHP South HS (Ballwin, Mo.) 46 Garrett Williams LHP Calvary Baptist Academy (Shreveport, La.) 47 Jonathon Crawford RHP Florida 48 Jason Hursh RHP Oklahoma St 49 Michael Lorenzen RHP/OF Cal St Fullerton 50 Josh Hart OF Parkview HS (Lilburn, Ga.) 51 Trevor Williams RHP Arizona St 52 Jordan Paroubeck OF Serra HS (San Mateo, Calif.) 53 Cord Sandberg OF Manatee County Private (Bradenton, Fla.) 54 Phil Ervin OF Samford 55 Phil Bickford RHP Oaks Christian HS (Ventura, Calif.) 56 Andrew Knapp C Cal 57 Dustin Driver RHP Wenatchee (Wash.) HS 58 Rob Zastryzny LHP Missouri 59 Ryan Eades RHP LSU 60 Tom Windle LHP Minnesota 61 Teddy Stankiewicz RHP Seminole State College 62 Kevin Ziomek LHP Vanderbilt 63 Bobby Wahl RHP Ole Miss 64 Alex Balog RHP San Francisco 65 Colby Suggs RHP Arkansas 66 Jake Johansen RHP Dallas Baptist University 67 Cavan Biggio 2B St. Thomas HS (Houston) 68 Myles Smith RHP Lee University 69 Matt McPhearson OF Riverdale Baptist HS (Columbia, Md.) 70 Terry McClure OF Riverwood HS (Atlanta) 71 Mason Smith OF Rocky Mountain HS (Meridian, Idaho) 72 Clinton Hollon RHP Woodford County HS (Lexington, Ky.) 73 Ryan McMahon 3B Mater Dei HS (Yorba Linda, Calif.) 74 Jan Hernandez SS Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (San Lorenzo, PR) 75 Andrew Church RHP Palo Verde HS (Las Vegas) 76 Andy McGuire SS James Madison HS (Oakton, Va.) 77 Adam Plutko RHP UCLA 78 Mike O'Neill OF Michigan 79 Scott Frazier RHP Pepperdine 80 Chad Pinder 3B Virginia Tech 81 Carlos Salazar RHP Kerman (Calif.) HS 82 Kent Emanuel LHP UNC 83 Trey Michalczewski SS Jenks (Okla.) HS 84 Jared King OF Kansas State 85 Chris Rivera SS El Dorado HS (Fullerton, Calif.) 86 Ivan Wilson OF Ruston (La.) HS 87 JaCoby Jones 2B LSU 88 Jake Sweaney C Garces Memorial HS (Bakersfield, Calif.) 89 Trey Masek RHP Texas Tech 90 Riley Unroe SS Desert Ridge HS (Mesa, Ariz.) 91 Casey Meisner RHP Cypress (Texas) Woods HS 92 Victor Caratini C Miami Dade College 93 Kyle Finnegan RHP Texas State 94 Zane Evans C Georgia Tech 95 Corey Knebel RHP Texas 96 Stuart Turner C Ole Miss 97 Corey Littrell LHP Kentucky 98 Garrett Hampson SS Renon (Nev.) HS 99 Christian Arroyo SS Hernando HS (Spring Hill, Fla.) 100 Jeremy Martinez C Mater Dei HS (Fountain Valley, Calif.)
According to Kiley McDaniels, the Astros are Josh Hart's ( ga prep cf) floor at #40. However, he is likely to get picked in the late 1 or comp balance round. Here's Hart's PG profile. http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=227576
Well... just so we're all on the right track. Hopefully no one has to ask what time the draft is tomorrow. Draft Schedule Times are Central. Thursday, June 6, 6 PM on MLB Network and MLB.com: Round 1, Competitive Balance Round A (1st round supplemental, picks 34-39), Round 2, Competitive Balance Round B (2nd round supplemental, picks 69-73) Friday, June 7, Noon on MLB.com: Rounds 3-10 Saturday, June 8, Noon on MLB.com: Rounds 11-40
