IMO it looks like a lot of deals will come down to the wire. Not many moves have been made save for Garza and Soriano as the higher profile deals. I'm glad to hear that Luhow is asking for the moon in trading Bud Norris. There is no reason to trade Bud unless the Astros are overwhelmed by a desperate team. I heard the last couple of minutes of the Astros post game show, I think the host was Ted DeLuca. DeLuca was saying he believed the Astros would move Norris and that in is opinion you package Vera's and Norris to the Pirates for Jameson Taillon. Now I don't believe that deal wold ever happen, but he brings ups good point in looking to package players together to acquire a power-hitting prospect. The problem is that the Pirates don't possess that kind of prospect. I wold hope that Luhow keeps to his word and doesn't move Bud for the sake of moving him. If a team does come in and overwhelm the Astros I'm all for making that trade, but I not, it doesn't hurt to have a good pitcher like Bud around to compete next season.
The Pirates are having a season for the ages (for them). A small market team like Pittsburgh may not see another opportunity like this for a LONG time. If I'm them, I put it all out there and make a run at it. If that requires mortgaging a top prospect, so be it.
If you like cluster-f's, then click the link. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Astros&src=hash">#Astros</a>' Porter says there's a 'probability' Bud Norris will be traded before deadline <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MLB&src=hash">#MLB</a> <a href="http://t.co/1R46Kj7uVX">http://t.co/1R46Kj7uVX</a></p>— Brian T. Smith (@ChronAstros) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChronAstros/statuses/361521759708647424">July 28, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Leila Rahimi (@leilarahimiCSN): Sources tell me Astros LHP Erik Bedard's recent strong outings, plus season performance has lead to interest from teams as deadline nears.
If GM's are taking advice from no name writers then I guess you're right about "yikes" I seem to believe that there's still a market for him and if you believe that Norris isn't good value as a 4 or 5 starter on a contending team for the next 2.5 years at that price you're crazy.
Dave Cameron isn't a no name writer. Assuming it's the same Dave Cameron, he's one of the lead writers at fangraphs. He's pretty good.
There should be a rule regarding ESPN Insider articles, like..... Don't bother posting the link to it if (A) you're not going to post the entire article, or (B) your analysis of it is "yikes."
Do not trade for Bud Norris With a handful of non-contenders reportedly deciding to hang on to their best trade chips, the supply of quality pitchers on the market is quite thin. As a result, teams in the playoff hunt are having to look at players they wouldn't otherwise be interested in, and tarnished pieces start looking more attractive given the limited options. However, even for a contender in need of a rotation boost, Bud Norris should not be viewed as the answer to anyone's problems. The Astros' 28-year-old right-hander will have some superficial appeal due to his 3.93 ERA and multiple years of team control, as he isn't going to be free-agent eligible until after the 2015 season. Unlike other pitchers changing teams this summer, Norris would not just be a rental as he could be penciled into a team's rotation for the next few years. The only problem? Bud Norris isn't particularly good, and shouldn't be trusted to start a game in the playoffs. A Whole Lotta Luck His 3.93 ERA is mostly a mirage, based around an unsustainably low rate of fly balls flying over the fence. From 2009 to 2012, Norris posted an 11.4 percent HR/FB ratio, a little bit higher than the league average. This year, his HR/FB rate is just 6.9 percent, the 13th-lowest mark of any qualified starting pitcher in MLB. While not giving up home runs is definitely a positive, history has shown that HR/FB ratio is not very predictive, and Norris is more likely to go back to giving up something closer to his career number of home runs per fly ball over the rest of the season. And when he does, that ERA is going to increase in a hurry, because Norris' strikeout rate has taken a dramatic turn for the worse with the move to the American League, decreasing from 22 percent to 17 percent. (For reference, a 22 percent strikeout rate would put him in the same range as Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels and Derek Holland, while a 17 percent strikeout rate makes him equal to players like Miguel Gonzalez and Jarrod Parker.) Strikeouts aren't an absolute requirement to be a quality starting pitcher, but Norris hasn't offset the reduction in strikeout rate by limiting his walks or his fly balls, so he's basically just pitching worse, not differently. Split personality Beyond the strikeout decline is another significant problem, especially for a team considering handing him the ball in October: his platoon splits. Because Norris heavily relies on his slider, he's able to dominate right-handed batters but is much less effective against left-handed hitters. This season, righties are hitting .240/.305/.315 against him, while lefties are hitting .300/.365/.494. Of the 117 qualified starting pitchers this season, Norris' .372 weighted on-base average (wOBA) allowed versus left-handers ranks 104th, putting him squarely between Jon Garland and Jason Hammel. Allowing a .372 wOBA is essentially the equivalent of turning every left-handed batter he faces into Andrew McCutchen. And no, it's not just bad luck. Norris' strikeout rate against left-handers is a paltry 12.5 percent, and 10 of the 11 home runs he's allowed this season have been hit by left-handers. His slider is a knockout pitch against right-handed batters, but tilts into a lefty's wheelhouse. There are a lot of pitchers in the majors just like Norris, but most of them are pitching in relief, where they can be selectively used against right-handers in order to maximize their effectiveness. As a starter, Norris simply has to face whatever group of hitters the opposing manager decides to put in the lineup that day. If that lineup happens to be stacked with good left-handers, he's in trouble, and every potential playoff team in both leagues has good left-handed hitters to throw at pitchers like Norris. Unless someone is planning on playing the Angels in October, handing Norris the ball probably isn't a great idea. The Los Angeles Angels are exactly the kind of club that Norris' skill set works best against. The Angels' hitters are predominantly right-handed, with their only four hitters posting an OPS more than .700 -- Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick -- all hitting from the right side. Norris has made four starts against the Angels this year, thanks to his new home in the AL West, and he's allowed exactly one earned run in 28 innings over those four starts, producing a sparkling 0.32 ERA. His ERA against every other team he's faced? 4.95. Here's how he's performed against a few teams he might actually have to face in the playoffs, if he's traded to a contender. Boston: 6 IP, 5 R, .346/.393/.538 Oakland: 12 2/3 IP, 14 R, .278/.371/.519 Detroit: 12 IP, 9 R, .292/.346/.500 St. Louis: 5 IP, 7 R, .478/.500/.739 These teams all have good left-handed hitters, and Norris has been terrible against all of them. That isn't likely to change in October, and any team facing him is going to stack its lineup with as many lefties as it can manage. Starting Norris against a bunch of left-handers with the season on the line is not a great bet. Norris is good enough against right-handers to be a useful No. 5 starter, and he could probably be an effective weapon out of the bullpen in the playoffs if a team was willing to use him in that role. But that's what he should be viewed as -- a right-handed specialist who could be used in a situational role in October. If a contender puts him in its playoff rotation, don't be too surprised when a lefty-heavy lineup makes it pay.
I agree with the argument about Lefties/Righties in that article, but Cameron doesn't dig deep enough about Norris' lowered strikeout numbers. It's true that Norris' Ks are down, but so are his walks (career low 3.07 BB/9). If you look through the fangraphs pitch/fx data for Norris, you'll also see that his velocity hasn't change over the last couple years. His average FB is actually higher than it was last year. So, it's not like his Ks are dropping because his stuff is on the down slope (unlike Yovani Gallardo, for instance, who's had declining FB velocity for 3 years). Should you worry about him making a start against all lefties in a playoff game? Yeah, maybe. But does that make him worth less for the next 1.5 years? Not really - the pitch data is showing that he's basically the same as he always was. If anything, he's lost feel for his slider this year, but that slider has been money for his last 2 starts. Those things come and go.
Command and movement on a fastball are equally important to getting strikeouts than velocity... You won't blow hitters away with anything sub 95 in MLB.
jeez man, the guy was trying to be helpful. everybody here likes you and appreciates the hell out of what you do. no need to let your head swell though.
Agreed. No need to be overly critical every time something slightly negative is posted about the Astros.
Definitely, but my point is it's curious that his K's are down when: 1) his FB velocity is the same as it was in 2011 and 2012 2) his walks are also down, and he's actually throwing more pitches in the zone this year My only real explanation is that the slider hasn't been as good, and there's some evidence for that. He's throwing the slider less this year (35% vs. 36% last year and 38% year before), but just barely so. He's also throwing the changeup more this year (11% vs. 7% last year). Batters are making contact with 79% of his pitches that they swing at, compared to 76% or less for each of his previous 4 years. Either his fastball has straightened out, or his slider has less bite, or I'm completely at a loss.
I think I'll back tellitlikeitis on this one. On any other poster I'd probably agree with the rest of you guys, but astros123 pretty consistently posts one line negative statements without much elaboration. I do see where tellit was coming from here.
I don't want to get into a debate over this so this will be my last commentary on the subject. Yes, he posted a one word comment AFTER providing the link to a new article that had not been posted and was very relevant to this thread. If he just said yikes after quoting someone elses link I would agree with you.
i dont "pretty consistently" post one line negative statements. ive done it a couple of times about singleton
Oh? April 2: April 17: May 3: June 17. Whoa, this was actually 2 lines! June 18: July 9: July 13, on Jose Altuve: Altuve again, on July 23: I'd say you've dropped quite a few throughout the course of the season. OK, derail over. With an off day on Monday, I will be definitely surprised if no moves were made. Seems that most of the roster moves this season have occurred on off days.
Astros123 definitely comes off as negative Nancy quite a bit. Support your damn team instead of blasting them like this continually. It's obviously very trollish on this board, so take the hint. That said, I do appreciate seeing articles about the Astros, regardless if they're negative or positive. Can we please end this debacle? I'd love to see some actual news in this thread. It's gotten to the point where if I don't see a tweet embedded, I scroll past everything else. Here's to hoping we get some quality prospects for our veteran pitchers.
