2013 Astros Minor League Thread

Oh he did - just said ward was absolutely phenomenal but you couldn't get him to concentrate and put down the bud.

And this has nothing to do with the 90's. Teams in all sports still overlook mar1juana use and emphasize talent. In this case, the use was so prevalent that it impacted his entire career.

 

Yeah, I agree there's no perfect formula.

Best we can do is go back after 15 years and argue about what should/could have happened :grin:.

I'll stand by my opinion that there are more players who lost valuable MLB time/production by spending it in the minors (players that would have been good, regardless of when they ultimately made their debut) vs players who had a bad career because they were "rushed".

I guess it boils down to that hitters are likely pre-determined to be who they are rather soon (with a few variables like HR power coming as the player fills out)... vs pitchers who definitely can get ruined arms/careers by being rushed.

This has been the most fun I've had discussing the team all year... actually has me excited for Cosart's start tonight.

 

Hmm... Singleton 2.0.

Actually Singleton reminded me a lot of Ward before you said that... except Singleton doesn't have a HOFer blocking his path.

 

You need to recheck your history. Ward reached the majors first because he was drafted in 1994. He hit very well with the Astros Minor League team. We weren't in the Dome. We were in MMP. The facts that Berkman was able to move ahead of him with ease despite the fact that Ward was hitting in the majors speaks to them valuing Berkman more.

I don't think it would matter much.

 

precisely. I'm hoping the difference is that in today's game - you can get suspended/removed for drug use and in Singleton's case - he hasn't made his money and is already on strike 2.5

Ward hung around long enough and with enough teams to make money and justify his habits

 

I don't know how valuable the playing time is (at least from the team's perspective).

I don't think many careers are ruined by being rushed. Instead the player just struggles. I think great players are going to figure it out. The only kind of player that it will harm is a player that lacks confidence (see Brett Wallace), but those players will almost always get in a slump that ruins their confidence anyways (see Brett Wallace).

 

I've really liked Wallace's approach since he's been back up. He no longer looks like he's scared to be on this level. Maybe it's the grease from the jheri-curl.

Hoping he can still pan.

 

He was part of the trade from Detroit (between father and son... Tal and Randy)... we never drafted him. Had his debut in May 1998 as a 22 year old (albeit for only 6 games). He certainly was in the majors for good in 1999 as a 23 year old (younger than Lance), when we were still in the dome (he actually was on the playoff roster as well).

He still didn't have a position though. Berkman suprassed him based on his performance... but it doesn't mean that he had more supporters in the organization. Ward was going to be given the first and every single chance to succeed... his perceived value in the organization was why he was never traded (even though as we agreed, he should have been).

 

I didn't say we drafted him. He was still drafted in 1994.

High school players tend to reach the majors at a younger age. Primarily because they don't spend 3 years at the same level like college players do. Ward had already tasted AAA and was a AA player before Berkman was ever drafted.

Ward actually performed well early in his career. If the top of the organization really felt that way, he would have been given a full-time gig, but he didn't get that until 2002. I've never said the organization wasn't high on Ward. They were extremely high on him. They were also extremely high on Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, and Jason Lane.

Having those riches led to trading Everett and letting Alou walk.

 

Daryle Ward was my favorite player back in the day.

 

The fact that they kept him that long IS an example of how high they were on him.... constantly trying to convert him into the OF that he never was, and had him wait out all the better players to give him a shot.

Any other situation or smarter organization would have traded him sooner for something of value to an AL team looking for a first baseman/DH... before his numbers started to decline (with increased AB's)

Astros front office were clouded by a prized acquisition and wanted to have something to show for it. Same goes for Jason Lane. Its possible the same thing is happening now with Wallace (who was a Luhnow draftee in St. Louis)... despite two other teams already haven given up on him.

 

Prospect Hot Sheet:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-george-springer-could-make-a-run-at-40-40/

#1 sure comes as a shock.

 

A lot of people thought Ward was a 40HR year guy. It would be interesting to know what offers were available that offseason.

 

I don't understand what you're trying to get at.

Berkman drafted in 1997- goes to high A and dominates the rest of the year. Deserves a promotion for next season.

1998- starts in AA. Dominates and gets a promotion to AAA at the end of the year. I would expect he goes to AAA the next season unless he tears the cover off in spring training.

1999- plays 64 games in AAA and is called up to the majors.

I don't know about you, but that seems pretty standard. I don't think the Astros "held" him back at all. To be called up in the second year that you were drafted is actually pretty quick for a hitter.

 

And not a shock in the "Not hot" either:

 

He was not a callup to the majors in 1999 for good (it was for injury reasons). He was a spot starter in July, and played a little at the end of the season. Only started a handful of games. Was not on the playoff roster.

He started 2000 at AAA also (where he thereby put up huge #'s in a third individual stint over 31 games)

I'm trying to buck this whole "its pretty standard" trend. The fact that when he was an everyday player in the minors he put up numbers very similiar to his career MLB numbers is telling. The fact that once he finally became an everyday player in the majors (quarter way through 2000 on a bad Astros team)... he didn't just start as a typical rookie, he hit at a HOF level... and put up MVP numbers the following year (his first as an opening day starter).

That says he likely would have been pretty damn effective earlier (maybe not the MVP level he was in 2001, but certainly better than the guys we had).

Yes, I know the Astros promoted him within the "standard" limits, and didn't really "wait" on him as much as they have on Springer... I'm saying they should have called him up even sooner, started his career sooner, and he likely puts up the same big numbers sooner.

 

Everett
Hidalgo
Alou

were all good. The one guy who wasn't good was Bell, and that was only in 1999. There is no certainly about it. You had to have MVP Berkman to have an upgrade over anyone but Bell.

Edit: Well, Hidalgo wasn't very good in 1999 either.

 

Ward also got increased OF time in 1999 as well.

Berkman played at an MVP level throughout the minors and the second he became an everyday player in the majors. I'm betting he would have done pretty well had he gotten the opportunity full-time in 1999 (vs 2000)... even accounting for his initial struggles he showed in real-life. Hell, bring him up in 1998, have him struggle initially, and you may get his MVP-type numbers 1.5 years earlier than the Astros actually benefited from it.

That being said, its based on retrospection, knowing that Berkman turned into a consistent +.900 OPS player almost every season. I just don't see the extra year in the minors (his time at AAA in 1999 and 2000) as the difference maker between him becoming a HOF-caliber hitter and a JD Martinez. Starting in 1998, he essentially was who he was going to be.

The Astros played it safe with Hidalgo being the better defender at the time (and somebody they believed in enough to place on the 1997 playoff roster after just 19 games)... but doesn't mean they made the right move.

 

Most of my frustration is based upon Lance's MLB career starting later than I thought it could have, and the effect it has on his potential HOF candidacy.

Right now, his overall numbers put him right on the border... and between his age and injuries he's only going to worsen his career averages from this point on (which are pretty damn good... top 30 all-time .OPS... without the PED suspicion)

Any chance to have another potential Astro HOFer is certainly welcomed by me... Biggio likely gets in next year, Bagwell the year after (hopefully). Lance probably won't have enough for a few years, and then it will depend on who else is going in the years he's up for election.

 

His knee injuries cost him the HOF. He'd have over 400 HR right now. There is no question in my mind. He'd have the Jeff Bagwell argument, without the MVP, but also without the steroid questions.