2012 MLB Draft

i find it hard to believe that crane wouldn't defer to the baseball minds, if that's indeed the case. this is drayton mclane we are talking about.

 

Keith Law(mock):

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
There's no deal in place, and it's still possible the Astros will consider another option like Byron Buxton, but the consensus has them taking Appel, who has roots in Houston and is a safe pick with lots of upside. Carlos Correa would be the third option.

In his chat:

Michael (Tennessee)
Everyone says they think Appel is going #1 but how do they really know? The astros have been very quiet havent they?

Klaw (3:08 PM)
Yes. And there's no deal in place, or even a firm decision.


John (TX)
From what you've heard would you be suprised if the Astros took Byron Buxton?

Klaw (3:11 PM)
Mildly so. But it's such a reasonable selection - same for Correa - that I couldn't really be that surprised.

Marshall Hook (Boston)
Your ranking has Buxton and Correa higher than Appel - but seems like reports are saying Astros are taking Appel. Do you think that's a mistake for them, or does it make sense despite your rankings?

Klaw (3:15 PM)
No. My rankings this year are really 'soft' up top - you could shuffle the names a little and I wouldn't really argue. I recognize the flat nature of the top tier this year.

Jeff (Baltimore)
Heard a scout compared Correa to A-Rod. That's a bit rich, right?

Klaw (3:26 PM)
A-Rod stayed at short for a long time, and could have stayed longer. Correa almost certainly moves to third. That makes it rich. Correa's pretty damn good with the stick though.

Cameron (CA)
What's the most likely 1-2-3 scenario you're hearing?

Klaw (3:34 PM)
Right now, Appel, Buxton, Correa.

Lucio (Houston)
Around which rounds should Nick Williams from Galveston Ball be expected to be selected?

Klaw (3:36 PM)
Not today. Probably doesn't matter after that. He really fell this spring, probably needs to go to school - committed to A&M but still rumors he could go to JC

Drew (Pittsburgh)
Could you compare Mark Appel vs Gerrit Cole. Thanks

Klaw (3:37 PM)
Cole threw a little harder and had a better out pitch (changeup). Both guys are athletic with clean deliveries but see their fastballs squared up more than you'd like. Neither got to call his own pitchers in college.

 

Thankfully this is only depressing if you somehow take stock in the idea that certain numbers arbitrarily happen to be better slots to draft players in. It's significantly against the odds that good pitchers haven't been taken number #1....but only significant in the way of it being a statistic anomaly. The higher you draft the better odds you have of getting the right player....

BTW I know you or Goldstein weren't actually taking that as a serious concern....but some people actually do put stock into that sort of stuff.

 

Appel is not even considered better than Cole, who is still in A ball this year, meanwhile Bauer will likely be making his major league debut sometime this year. Bauer was taken 2 spots behind Cole and was even on Cole's UCLA team, which leads me to believe that Cole was decided upon way before last year's actual draft.

It seems that Appel is getting the same treatment that Cole got last year.....a consensus #1 pick heading into the year, only to not dominate as expected, but somehow still gets selected #1 overall.

Please don't take Appel. Please.

 

According to Jonathan Mayo:

[rquoter]Defensively, Correa is above average across the board -- range, arm and actions -- leaving no question about his ability to stay at short.[/rquoter]

http://www.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

 

Take Correa plz

 

So is everyone here pretty much on the Correa and even Buxton over Appel train? I am....and yes....even Giolito intrigues me more (I admit this has to with his size and 100mph).

 

Cole was not the consensus #1 pick going into last year. Anthony Rendon was the consensus #1 pick before the season started, and ultimately went #6. Cole is currently pitching extremely well in Advanced A ball.

Projecting a player goes well beyond the stats. Cole went first overall thanks to his frame compared to Bauer.

 

I'd go Appel, Correa, Buxton.

 

dear Astros, please draft a college player. Look at our history with 1st rounders! The college guys materialize -- the HS guys -- not so much

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastro...ntinue-reversal-of-subpar-decade-of-drafting/

011 No. 11: George Springer, OF, UConn
Hitting .291/.354/.518 for high Class A Lancaster in first pro season.

2010 No. 8: Delino DeShields Jr., OF, Woodward Academy (Ga.)
Converted almost immediately to a second baseman. Hitting .256/.363/.365 with 36 steals in 53 games in his second year at low Class A Lexington.

(2nd pick compensation for losing Jose Valverde)
2010 No. 19: Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Minooka HS (Ill.)
7-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his second year at Lexington.

2009 No. 21: Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (Calif.)
Currently rehabbing a hamstring injury after starting the year hitting .309/.414/.447 for Lancaster.

2008 No. 10: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
Made the majors two years later, now starting at catcher for the Astros hitting .243/.328/.364.

2007: No pick
Lost for signing Carlos Lee

2006 No. 23: Max Sapp, C, Bishop Moore HS (Fla.)
Diagnosed with a severe case of meningitis, out of baseball.

2005, No. 24: Brian Bogusevic, LHP, Tulane
Spent parts of four years as a pitcher before restarting his course as an outfielder, now playing right field for the Astros, hitting .220/.308/.313.

2004: No pick
Lost for signing Andy Pettitte

2003: No pick
Lost for signing Jeff Kent

2002 No. 29: Derick Grigsby, RHP, Northeast Texas CC
Played just two years with the Astros and battled mental illness, specifically depression. Out of baseball.

2001 No. 10: Chris Burke, 2B, Tennessee
Hit one of the most famous home runs in Astros history to win the 2005 NLDS amid an otherwise unspectacular career. Now working for ESPN calling college baseball.

2000, No. 27: Robert Stiehl, RHP, El Camino College
Lasted in the Astros system until 2007 but only played in 10 games above A ball.

1999: No pick
Lost for signing Ken Caminiti

1998, No. 17: Brad Lidge, RHP, Notre Dame
Currently starting a rehab assignment as he works his way back to the Nationals, where his journey continues to keep alive a very good career even post-Astros.

1997, No. 16: Lance Berkman, 1B, Rice
Due back with the Cardinals from a knee injury sometime late this summer, he was probably the second most successful Astros first-rounder, behind only Craig Biggio.

 

The only players in the top 10 I've been following are Dylan Bundy and Anthony Rendon. I just looked up Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer, and wow . The Diamondbacks might be set for a long time if they keep drafting solid.

 

Jerry (NYC)
Devils advocate - what are the arguments against Buxton at 1.1?

Klaw (4:13 PM)
18.5 year old HS outfielder from a rural area who hasn't hit for power this year. I get it, he is risky.

 

If you say so. I heard Cole being mentioned #1 before the season....anyhoo...

My point is that He(Cole) isn't even outpitching someone from his own college team this year. It seems that Appel is being touted as the #1 pick in the same manner that Cole was last year, even though data may suggest that should not be the case.

I don't think that Appel will be a bust, but he is not #1 pick worthy, in my totally amateur online scouting opinion.

I want Correa, based off of projectability, age, and oh yeah, somebody said he would be the next A-Rod.

 

Probably a mistake but check out ESPN's Astros Draft History page. It's updated and has us selecting HS CF Albert Amora.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/hou

 

His competition is terrible. Those are very tiny schools he has played against.

Way too much risk for me.

 

Exactly.

Apparently, Bauer will be called up sooner rather than later.