In conservative circles, Reagan's mythology trumps Reagan. It blows my mind how the passing of time has made him into anything they want him to be.
Interesting article in yesterday's WaPo. I'm surprised how they come right out and say Mitt Romney doesn't stand a chance because of the healthcare laws he ushered in while Gov of MA. 2012 Republican presidential candidates all have flaws http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013003972_pf.html by Chris Cillizza Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, January 30, 2011; 7:43 PM Mitt Romney can't win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. As governor of Massachusetts, he signed health-care legislation that has considerable similarities to the proposal President Obama championed - the one Republicans have fought tooth and nail. That's an emerging bit of conventional wisdom about the slow-forming GOP race. And it's right - except that it omits one very important fact: All - that's A-L-L - of the Republicans considering runs for the nomination carry at least one major flaw that could keep them from victory. "So far, the Republican field looks conventional and flawed," said Mark McKinnon, who was an adviser to President George W. Bush. "To beat Obama, the GOP is going to have to come up with a ticket that is fresh, exciting, unconventional and free of major flaws." Let's take a look at the Achilles' heel of some of the best-known candidates: l Haley Barbour: The Mississippi governor virtually invented lobbying - not exactly the ideal background in a very anti-Washington Republican electorate. And his Southern roots - and the gaffe he committed late last year when he seemed to suggest that the civil rights movement wasn't a big deal where he grew up - might not play well in the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary, the first two nominating contests of 2012. l Mitch Daniels: The Indiana governor drew widespread criticism among the party base when he suggested that the next president would need to call a "truce" on social issues until the country moved beyond its current economic woes. Social conservatives dominate the Iowa caucuses and the South Carolina primary - and they won't forget Daniels's truce talk anytime soon. l John Thune: The senator from South Dakota - like many of his Republican Senate colleagues - voted for the Troubled Assets Relief Program in late 2008. Many conservatives view the vote as a sort of scarlet letter, a massive government bailout that is anathema to their limited-government philosophy. l Newt Gingrich: The former House speaker's appeals to social conservatives in places such as Iowa and South Carolina could be complicated by his very public personal life: He has been married three times. l Sarah Palin: The former Alaska governor has done next to nothing to build a national political organization or demonstate the ability - or willingness - to grow beyond her committed social conservative base. l Jon Huntsman: His serving in the Obama administration - albeit as the ambassador to China - won't go down well with many Republican primary voters who detest the current occupant of the White House. And Huntsman's public endorsement of cap-and-trade legislation puts him out of step with most in his party. l Tim Pawlenty: The former Minnesota governor's biggest problem is a lack of pizazz. Can a candidate who is relatively unknown outside his home state of Minnesota and whose best trait is his "niceness" rise to the top of such a crowded field? l Mike Huckabee: Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas - particularly his decision to commute the sentence of Maurice Clemmons, who went on to murder four police offers in Washington state - is ripe for a deep opposition-research dive. And Huckabee's record on taxes as governor isn't likely to look much better in the eyes of many Republicans. Curt Anderson, a GOP consultant who worked with Romney in 2008 but is now unaligned, argued that the candidates' pasts won't win or lose them the nomination. "The answer to the riddle lies in the future, not the past," he said. "Who can capture the imagination of Republican primary voters? That is the question."
Actually, I might vote in the Democratic Primary depending on who runs. There are a few good Democrats, too.
Based on the indecision of your last three consecutive posts (a rare trifecta), it might be best if you give it some time before you decide.
Of course, he's not going to have a good economy and nothing has changed since 2010 except the electoral vote distribution, and not in his favor.
Yes. It would take a good candidate, but it'd be possible even now with Obama's approval over 50%. A weak economy means weak support. Do I think a Republican will knock off Obama? Probably not.
Don't forget that he won in an electoral landslide in 2010. The electoral vote distribution has moved in favor of Republicans, but Obama had a lot of ground to lose in that respect.
Republicans will fall victim to the same trap the Democrats did circa 2004, party of no ideas, just acrimony. People don't vote for that. Plus their candidates freaking suck.
Side note: Charlotte, North Carolina was just announced as the location for the 2012 Dem nat'l convention. Interesting choice
Interesting graph from Silver: The rest of Silver's article, with the requisite analysis of the chart is here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...phical-overview-of-the-2012-republican-field/
Here's another graph of the candidates: Spoiler http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/82634/preliminary-breakdown-the-gop-contenders
neato! the color codes by region are interesting. new england conservatives have no chance and southern moderates dont either. its no shocker that the southerners are going to be more conservative, but it really stands out in this chart. they are all firmly on the right side, except paul who i believe grew up in pennsylvania. i think the ticket is beginning to emerge though - its clearly paul/trump 2012!
