He's already done. He's been in Iowa since January, heavily campaigning, and he can't make a dent there -- he's running 5th or 6th. And that's the whole state he's basing his campaign on. He's not going to win NH, SC or Nevada; everybody knows that. Now the money dries up and, being the relatively dull personality he is, he doesn't have a way to turn it around. The problem here is that people who vote personality don't care for his more than Romney's and the people that vote ideology don't trust him and strongly favor a variety of other candidates. There's no opening for him here. If he could manage to survive the long haul (and money will dictate he can't) and if Perry didn't get in the race (which he almost definitely will), he might finally become the anti-Romney the pundits keep saying he could be (or used to anyway), but even if all that happened (and it won't), does anyone believe Pawlenty would be particularly favored in a one-on-one against Romney? Bachmann is the anti-Romney now. With Perry there will be too anti-Romneys. Now, that might be good for Romney, but it's death for Pawlenty.
Consider that Perry may not translate well around the country and ask yourself how many Republicans were feeling Dole in 1996. I don't see the national GOP nominating GWB's successor to be his successor [with a 4 year gap]. I'm very curious what will happen when Perry steps into the kind of harsh, relentless spotlight.
Dole's problem wasn't that he was particularly offensive nationally; it was that he was bland. I'm not seeing the comparison. Perry is anything but bland. And I don't think voters (or power-brokers) are worrying right now over Bush fatigue and they're probably right not to. I don't think that's where we're at now. And Perry has a pretty good job creation story to tell. He won't have too much trouble differentiating himself from Bush when the time comes. Remember when so many thought having the middle name "Hussein" or a last name that rhymes with Osama would be an insurmountable problem. These are not the sort of superficialities on which presidentials are won or lost (he has a home state and an accent that remind me of that guy four years ago - American voters like southern accents); the winning superficialities are more of the like-to-have-a-beer with variety. By that test, Perry wipes out the rest of the GOP field and gives Obama a better challenge than Romney or anyone else running. Not only do I think Perry will be the nominee; I think he will be, among the possibilities, the most difficult for Obama to beat. I still think Obama will win, but I think Perry could make it close. Romney? Once they show up on a stage together? No way.
We agree to disagree. Romney is this year's Dole. The GOP doesn't "feel him" but he will get the nomination anyway. Maybe I'm underestimating Perry's ability to wage a 12 month campaign. We'll see.
We will. Wanna make a tip jar bet for fun? You can set the amount. If Romney gets the nod, I'd pay. If Perry does, you would. If it's someone else, neither or both of us do.
I know one of Perry's senior staff members very well and we talked during the governor election. Everything he told me was going to happen, happened. If he they get into this, Perry will get the republican nod. He will not do it if there is any chance of not getting the nomination.
jesus I'm starting to believe quite a few Republicans believe in the "free-market" because they did not educate themselves properly in any economic topic. It would surprise me if any one of the GOP candidates, Romney included, could describe basic macroeconomic concepts beyond the "invisible hand" of bank-sponsored academic research.
I always check Taegan Goddard's Political Wire and there were some interesting tidbits there today. I'm too lazy to copy and paste so many small items, but you can go to www.politicalwire.com and find these stories on the front page there. First, Perry made an unnecessary and clumsy walk-back of the comment he'd made about feeling a "calling" to run. He said something like 'lot of people can call you, friends can call you, family could call you.' Obviously he's not talking about friends calling him when he says he feels "called to run." Why didn't he just say "Come on, haven't you ever felt a calling to do something? I think everybody has." That would have put it to bed. This was an unforced error though, I think, a small one. Next there was a bit on Christie. I was surprised to see that his friends believe he's not running because he thinks he wouldn't win, since I had postulated that might be the case just last night. But there was a twist in this item which is that this might be his only chance as his approval ratings and likelihood of reelection are very low in NJ. He may be popular with the national GOP but not with his constituents. (Interestingly this is also true of Perry and Palin, both of whom lost the most recent polling match-ups with Obama at home.) I'm upgrading Christie from a definite no to a maybe. I think he would be slaughtered by Obama in a general (unlike Perry for example who I think could make it a race) but he would sure make the primary interesting. Finally there was an interesting twist on the Bachmann story. According to former staffers, she apparently suffers from migraines that debilitate her for days at a time. Fairly or not, if she really becomes a contender, this will be an issue for her to overcome. Americans pay attention to the health of presidential candidates and nobody wants a president that needs to go AWOL, even for health reasons, for days at a time. Political Wire is the first site I visit for political news each day. If you don't check it out already, I recommend it.
Did anyone catch Christie on some talk show answering questions from constituents. this lady asked him why he sent his kids to private school and not the fine public learning institutes of new jersey. he basically started off the answer with mind your own business. dude's hilarious if nothing else. <object id="flashObj" width="486" height="412" classid="clsid27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0"><param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=997978054001&playerID=651974715001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAPLMIP6E~,BRrRHTAljlF40NofMDxsColEK-8KEsxy&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" /><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com" /><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=997978054001&playerID=651974715001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAPLMIP6E~,BRrRHTAljlF40NofMDxsColEK-8KEsxy&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" swLiveConnect="true" allowScriptAccess="always" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object>
More evidence of Romney's present status as a very weak frontrunner (or even no longer frontrunner at all): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_0719.pdf Bachmann's leading the field in this PPP poll that doesn't include Sarah Palin (by 1 point) and she leads a head to head with Romney by 4.
The most interesting takeaway from the PPP poll to me is the question of how Romney fights Bachmann off to regain his inevitability argument. He's already unpopular with the Tea Party and other hard right voters. Can he afford to hit her for being too far right? I think not. Where else can he hit her? If he truly loses his slippery grip on the frontrunner designation, he has a hard road ahead, as that designation is presently his greatest strength. If electability were truly an important factor to GOP voters at this point in the game, Huntsman would be polling above 0% in Iowa, Pawlenty would at least be somewhere in the mix and Bachmann would be doing far more poorly. But isn't electability Romney's only other argument, apart from looking like a winner? He may be losing his grip on each.
I think electability becomes more of an argument when the primaries actually start. Right now, everyone is just supporting their "ideal" candidate - it won't be until reality hits and when people are actually going to voting booths that the electability thing starts to get any real play. Bachmann is politically very savvy, but I can't imagine even she thinks that she can win the whole thing. She knows she's not getting a leadership role in Congress, so I think she's positioning herself as a power broker on her own - with the attention she gets, if the tea party wins more races in 2012, she's going to have an even more formidable Tea Party caucus (which she formed) to drive the GOP starting in 2013.
http://dailycaller.com/2011/07/18/s...ncapacitates-bachmann-heavy-pill-use-alleged/ Headline is a little more inflammatory than the article itself, but this was interesting.
