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2012 Draft Overrated?

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by ICanDunkOnYao, Feb 25, 2012.

  1. ICanDunkOnYao

    ICanDunkOnYao Member

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    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog...t-supposedly-stellar-prospect-crop-looks-bust

    [rquoter]In July, NBA scouts and executives were projecting the 2012 NBA draft to be one of the best in a decade.

    With a potential lockout and other factors in play, an unusually high number of prominent college players passed on their opportunities to jump to the NBA in 2011. North Carolina's Harrison Barnes, Baylor's Perry Jones, Kansas' Thomas Robinson, Ohio State's Jared Sullinger, Kentucky's Terrence Jones, Florida's Patric Young, UConn's Jeremy Lamb, North Carolina's John Henson, Duke's Mason Plumlee and UNC's Tyler Zeller all were considered potential lottery picks in 2011. Another year in school was supposed to give them even more appeal.

    We were also projecting as many as 10 freshmen as potential lottery picks: Kentucky's Anthony Davis, UConn's Andre Drummond, Kentucky's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Baylor's Quincy Miller, Florida's Bradley Beal, North Carolina's James Michael McAdoo, Duke's Austin Rivers, Kentucky's Marquis Teague, Texas' Myck Kabongo and Memphis' Adonis Thomas.

    That's 20 players for 14 lottery spots. That's what you call a stacked draft.

    But as we enter the last week of February, NBA executives are rushing to downgrade the draft.

    "Everyone talks about how great this draft is," one NBA GM told ESPN.com. "On paper in July, it really looked that way. On the ground in February, I'm not that impressed. Anthony Davis is great. But after that, there are a lot of question marks and a surprising lack of depth. I'm not sure that the 2012 draft will be better than the 2011 one."

    What's causing the pessimism?

    Davis has lived up to, and perhaps even surpassed, expectations. But most of the rest of the crop of returning players and freshmen haven't measured up.

    Barnes has shown he's a lethal scorer -- but a one-dimensional one who doesn't seem to make anyone around him better. Perry Jones has reverted back to his wallflower ways. Terrence Jones, despite the talent, is still maddeningly inconsistent. Sullinger is effective, but seems to have hit his ceiling as a freshman. Henson is still a defensive force, but the offense is a work in progress. Ditto for Plumlee and Young. Lamb seems too laid-back to really carry a team the way his former teammate Kemba Walker did last season.

    Of the returning collegians, only three -- Robinson, Zeller and Damian Lillard -- have lived up to or exceeded expectations. Robinson's toughness and athleticism should make him a staple in the league for a decade. Zeller will start somewhere thanks to his ability to run the floor like a guard. Lillard is the draft's biggest sleeper, but has been consistently better every season.

    The same problems are found throughout the freshman class. Andre Drummond may have the physical tools of Amare Stoudemire -- but he doesn't play like him. Drummond can look awesome in one game and completely disappear in the next.

    Miller has had his moments, but seems like he's still not fully recovered from ACL surgery last year. Beal looked like the next Ray Allen or Eric Gordon in high school, but hasn't quite lived up to the hype on a Florida team that often asks him to play out of position. Rivers has hit some big shots, but he doesn't look like the dominant player he was in high school. McAdoo has been regulated to bench duty and hasn't the super sub we thought he'd be. Teague and Kabongo have had some success, but both look a long ways away from being an NBA point guard. Thomas struggled out of the gate before a season-ending injury struck.

    Really, just two freshmen, Kidd-Gilchrist and Indiana's Cody Zeller, have exceeded expectations. We had Kidd-Gilchrist ranked No. 3 on our Big Board in July, so it's a bit of stretch to say he's exceeded expectations. But the truth is that Kidd-Gilchrist has lived up to all the hype about his motor and toughness while showing a better offensive game than he did in high school.

    We thought Zeller wasn't a serious one-and-done prospect, but next to Davis, he's been the second most efficient freshman in college basketball and has turned around the Hoosiers' program. He's now a legitimate lottery pick.

    So sure, if everyone lived up to the hype, this could've been one of the best drafts ever. Instead we're left with one sure thing in Davis. Barnes will be a great scorer in the league -- but will he ever be any better than Danny Granger? Most teams are looking for more with the No. 2 pick in a great draft. Coaches will fall in love with Kidd-Gilchrist, but unless he develops a very consistent game from beyond the arc, his upside looks to be on par with a Gerald Wallace. Drummond has the tools of Stoudemire, but he could also bust out of the league in a few years. Beal is the one guy that's probably underrated right now.

    After those five, the talent downgrades to good starter and then, after the 10th or 11th pick, to solid rotation player.

    Good draft? Sure. Great draft? Hardly.

    [/rquoter]
     
  2. King901

    King901 Member

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    Looks like they should compare Drummond to J.Hill with the "look good in one game and disappear in the next"
     
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  3. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Drummond would be well served to stay in college 3 to 4 years. He might need the degree to fall back.
     
  4. Horry33

    Horry33 Contributing Member

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    So if Rockets were to package pick 14 and 16 for 1 pick, what pick do you all think they could get? Maybe 7th?
     
  5. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Picks alone - 14 & 16 - I'd say at best 10 or 11. No higher than 9th.
     
  6. acshen

    acshen Contributing Member

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    Add Lowry and we could get 5-7 I think
     
  7. Medicine N Music

    Medicine N Music Contributing Member
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    No, this draft is DEEP in terms of star potential late in the draft. There are major question marks for most players, but man, Jeremy Lamb around pick #15? How about Quincy Miller or Austin Rivers? It just rare that you can get a guy with star potential in the middle of the first round. I mean, in another class, Lamb may be a top 6 lock.
     
  8. cooliobob

    cooliobob Member

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    A guy that I hope the Rockets consider with one of their picks is Tony Wroten. If you guys have never seen him play, I recommend finding out a bit more about him. This guy will put people in the seats. Draft boards have him going later in the first round, but he has all the tools to become an elite 1 or 2.

    At 6'6' with a 6'8' wingspan, Tony possesses good size to play either the PG or the SG position. Out of all the prospects going in the first round (and quite possibly the draft), I would say he possesses not only some of the best handles, but also the best court vision I've seen in quite some time. His passing abilities are on another level and while he is capable of scoring, he is a pass first type of player. He also possesses great athleticism and can be a force on the defensive end. He will have no trouble staying with the 2 guards at the NBA level. In a way, he reminds of a young Jamal Crawford as they are both Seattle natives, except Tony is a much better athlete.

    While Tony does have some work to do on his jump-shot as he can be a streaky shooter, he has all the tools that you would want in a 2-way player. While he is already very talented, I feel like he is just scratching the surface, as far as his potential is concerned. As the draft approaches, you can bet his stock is going to rise and if the Rockets can land him at 16, it would be an excellent pick. With the 14th pick, the Rockets should probably address some of their frontcourt issues, but Tony is definitely a player that the Rockets should consider.
     
  9. cooliobob

    cooliobob Member

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    To be honest with you, I shared these same exact sentiments as I believed this draft was going to be very deep on paper a year ago, but a good number of the players that I thought were sure to shine in the league largely underperformed. Aside from Davis, there isn't a single player that you can say will be an immediate impact player. This draft is littered with players with a ton of talent, but there are glaring weaknesses for a lot of these candidates. For instance, I player such as Perry Jones who displayed Durant-like ability back in HS was widely inconsistent at Baylor with questions about his mental toughness coming almost every other game. A player like Drummond, who by all accounts is an absolute freak of an athlete with a penchant for blocking shots did not display the same offensive dominance that he displayed back in HS and is believed to have maturity issues. There are a lot of players in this draft with potential, but I'm not sure even the GMs of various teams have enough evidence to justify that any particular player aside from Davis will be able to come in an impact the league from Day 1. While this draft does have talent, I'm not entirely sure it is as strong as we had originally anticipated.
     
  10. acshen

    acshen Contributing Member

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    Thanks! Yeah he reminds me of T-Will minus the headcase/maturity issues
     
  11. Shaud

    Shaud Member

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    Wroten has huge potential but he has more turnovers than assist in his freshman year. I thought he should have stayed in school with the way he choked away Washington making the NCAA by missing those free throws in the PAC 10 1st rd game.
     
  12. Shaud

    Shaud Member

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    *Pac 12*
     
  13. cooliobob

    cooliobob Member

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    The TO's are definitely a concern as he sometimes chooses to make the fancy pass instead of the simple pass. I think that is something that will come with more maturity and experience, but the court vision is definitely there. I think it is one of his more valuable assets.
     
  14. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Coming out so early will work against him if he were to come to the Rockets. He would probably not get much playing time early on.
     
  15. cooliobob

    cooliobob Member

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    Well, I guess it really depends on whether or not we are going to retain Martin and/or Lee. He definitely has the skill-set to play in the League from Day 1, but being only 19 years old, he is definitely a talent that the Rockets can take their time cultivating. The Rockets aren't going to be competing for a title for at least the next 3-5 years, so their strategy should be to stockpile some young talent to compete when the time comes.
     
  16. Shaud

    Shaud Member

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    Just depends on how much he matures as a player. A knock on him is he tries to make the flashy play instead of the basic play. His court vision is insane though.

    I think his game is made more for the NBA than it was for college.
     
  17. cooliobob

    cooliobob Member

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    Most definitely man. Another guy you can compare him to is Brandon Jennings, except obviously he's much bigger. Brandon was all flash back in HS, but he's been able to tone it down a bit and is doing pretty well up in Milwaukee. The court vision is simply something you can't teach as he definitely has a knack for finding the open man. His game should translate very well in the NBA and he plays hard at both ends of the floor which will bode well for him. I think with some NBA coaching and some fine-tuning (keeping the flash under control), he should be able to contribute quite a bit at the NBA level.
     
  18. Dubious

    Dubious Contributing Member

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    author could be just as wrong on the negative and other are on the positive.
    no one will remember who wrote what in 3 years when we start to know.
     
  19. moonnumack

    moonnumack Contributing Member

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    This is why I am against the 1-and-done rule. Although it's better than HS players entering the NBA, 1 year of promising play in college still does not necessarily project to continued improvement. It's just a crapshoot to figure out who is going to be consistently good based on just HS or 1 year of college for most players (obviously LeBron and a few others are the exception).
     
  20. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    This draft can't be overrated. There are just too many things pointing to it being very talent heavy.
     

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