2012-2013 Astros Offseason: Trade & FA Speculation

I expect Berkman to receive offers from other teams in the $5M range.

I expect Berkman to get a deal between $5-10M from the Astros for one year with a mutual option. Basically whatever it costs to lure him over retirement.

Berkman will either take the Astros offer or retire. I don't expect him to give us a hometown discount (which he actually said he would), but rather a hometown farewell tour. Berkman wanted to spend his career here. Never wanted to leave. Wanted to come back as soon as he did.

 

I also like how you throw knowing someone in the organization into my face. Congrats, you have a better connection to one MLB team. One we both agree are interested in Berkman. Unless your contact is Crane, Luhnow, or Postolos, I'm not sure they would know what they are willing to spend on him.

And FWIW, I do actually have a client that was a scout for the Dodgers for 26 years. Not that I ask him about these things or if he would even know. He's not aging so well.

 

Yes, 4 teams contacted him. One signed Napoli, and has Ortiz, another wanted him to be a bench player, one is the Astros, and the last is a team that doesn't spend much money but I'm sure will be at the door offering $5M.

No, I don't think Berkman wants to take a 60% paycut, even though that salary was a 50% increase from the previous year. I think Berkman either wants: an assload of money he isn't going to get, he is going to play for the Astros, or he is going to retire. He has added value to the Astros.

Lets say the Rangers struck out in FA, they could come in and be dangerous.

 

So what are the Astros willing to spend?

 

Most comparable deal I can find is 2009 deal Jason Giambi signed with the A's.

$4M + $6.5M club option (1.25M buyout)

Giambi was coming off 32 HRs and had a .876OPS and was turning 38.

Vlad Guerrero had a couple of similar signings one for $5.5M then $8M.

Berkman only has 7 homers in his last 389 PAs.

 

There is no such thing as a 100% healthy Lance Berkman. His knee will never be 100%.

You are living in a dream world if you expect a 37 year old with a history of knee injuries coming off missing 130 games plus postseason getting big dollars.

It isn't that I don't expect teams to be interested, just not at significant dollars.

 

Except Lance was 35 back then, and didn't have another knee surgery. Not more similar.

When healthy, he might still rake. His stats show that he still hits righties extremely well. Even if you look back at 2011, his power completely diappeared after July. In 389 PAs, he hit 7 HRs. Assuming he gets 600PAs, which is about where he has been at in his recent relatively healthy seasons, he'd be on pace for 11HRs.

There is nothing to suggest I'll be wrong. 4 teams called to guage his interest in playing again. That isn't really showing much. That is incredibly typical behavior when you are planning on looking at FAs. Every FA that is going to get a ML deal is going to field some calls.

To me the question marks are, how much is holding off retirement worth for Lance, and are the Astros doing more than grandstanding on him.

 

Berkman hasn't said anything other than that he isn't sure he will come back. He wouldn't come back for only a couple of million and that he'd be interested in playing for the Astros. Berkman himself has really only publicly addressed being interested in rejoining the Astros, and that he would consider retiring.

Teams always call perspective free agents. Reports don't say that they got into any details at all. That doesn't mean anything for how much money he is going to get.

I did check. I've got no reason to not believe you. I disagree with your source though if he really believes Berkman is going to get significant interest. Strangely, MLBTradeRumors predicted he would get about $5M in 2010 when he was a FA, and he ended up with $8M. I think around 5 teams will have legit offers, which I believe will be around $5M, but he would need over $10M to sign with somebody other than the Astros.

We may never know if I'm right, we can only determine if I was wrong by him signing with another team for more. My prediction is the Astros sign him for $5M + mutual option featuring a buyout that could push the actual value higher. If he does, it could be a hometown discount.

 

Berkman has at least 4 knee surgeries, Napoli just had some time splitting and a couple of minor injuries.

Given Berkman's age, and knee, he is more likely to flop. He is 2010 position with 2 additional knee surgeries.

 

Luhnow has met with Berkman's agents per Tags.

Hopefully they were positive.