Here's my current top 10 Astros prospects. I'm including Springer but not Armstrong or any other unsigned draft picks. 1. Altuve 2b (AA): At some point you just have to believe. No modern baseball player has had a successful career at his size (5'5-5'6) so there's still going to be some (rightful) skepticism going forward. People argue that Pedroia's undersized but the height difference between Altuve and Pedroia is the difference between Pedroia and a Jeff Kent. But there are exceptions to most everything and he's hitting 389 this year across two levels with moderate power. I think there's a good chance he's an average to above average mlb 2nd basemen. He'll be a competent big league fielder and hit for average. The question will be whether the power he's shown continues at higher levels. I think a reasonable upside is something like 300/350/450 in his prime years. Not a huge ceiling, but I think he has a pretty high floor. Among the national prospects guys, Law has him #50 overall in his midseason list, Goldstein also has him in the top 50, while BA excludes him (projects him as a utility player). Sickels hasn't put up a list but is high on him 2: George Springer CF: I could see an argument for him being #1. Along with Ovando, he has the highest ceiling in the system. A cold weather player he struggled out of the gate and concerns cropped up about his swing mechanics. Finished the year strong and overall had a solid year including significantly cutting down his K rate. I think it's a lock he signs and plays a month or so at tri-city or lexington. He's still relatively raw so I could see him taking a few years to graduate. Loved the pick by the astros. Little bit of boom or bust with the biggest questions centering around K rate and how high an average he'll hit for. Being able to stay in center would also help a lot. Will probably be somewhere in the back half of national 100 lists this offseason. 3: Ariel Ovando OF (rookie): Bit of a dropoff after Springer. This is pretty aggressive but not sure who else would deserve to go here. Huge upside, but still raw and years away. Been battling some minor injuries but he's had a good first 10 games in the appy rookie level league. A lot can go right or wrong in the next few years, but an elite upside and the failure of the astros' other top prospects places Ovando here. 4: JD Martinez OF (AA): Modern ceiling/high floor type guy. Stuck probably to the corner OF (and probably LF) so his bat will have to carry him. It has so far in the minors. He's never hit below 300 at any level of the minors and is sporting a 336/419/528 line at AA this year. Hasn't been a big HR guy, but if he hits 300 with doubles that should be okay. He'll play in the majors. The only question is if he'll be a 4th OF or more. I think he'll be an average regular and should take over for Lee in left and provide a cheap/average corner OF for the Astros' rebuilding phase. 5. Delino Deshields 2b (A): the team's first pick in last years draft (and the consensus #2 prospect going into the year) , deshields has been terrible this year both offensively and defensively (switching to 2b). The good news is he's at least flashed the tools the Astros saw in making him the #8 pick. He hit for power in the 1st half and has shown speed. In the 2nd half he's hitting for a higher average but sacrificing power. He's a teenager so he has time to figure it all out. At least he's flashing tools. Strikes out way too much and if he does get it together it will be on the slow track. If Altuve establishes himself at 2nd it will be interesting to see if they move Deshields back to center. 6. Jonathan Villar SS (AA): I think the Astros are bungling his development. Hitting about 200 in AA as a raw 20 year old who should be in A+ ball. The astros had a logjam with Villar and Mier so they've been super aggressive with Villar. Now they have a .201 hitter in AA and a .209 hitter (mier) in A+. Villar despite his struggles is still a prospect but he's extremely raw and there are huge questions marks about his offense. He's in AA but still at least a few years away. 7. Mike Foltynewicz SP (A): the 19th pick in last year's draft. Folty has struggled in first full season. Has a sub-6 stikeout per 9ip rate and 3:2 K:BB ratio. Neither is very good. Had the best start of his career last outing (6ip 1r 9k 2bb) so hopefully he can turn the corner. Would be interested in hearing scouting reports to see if his stuff has regressed. 8: Chris Wallace C (AA): Power is real, but won't hit for average. Likely is backup C who can hold his own defensively and provide pop. 9: Telvin Nash OF (A): Raw with offensive upside. Likely a LF or 1st basemen so will go as far as bat will take him. Broke Hamate bone earlier this year and was out for awhile. Kind of guy that will need a lot of development time so hope no more missed time and hope he astros don't rush him. There's upside here. 10: Dallas Keuchel SP (AA): Houser's the other possibility here. Keuchel doesn't have that kind of upside but he's next up to the mlb rotation. A reasonable upside is a number 5 big league starter who can stick and that's close to his reasonable down side too. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff and he's not going to strike people out, so his success will depend on how many groundballs he can get. HM: Houser, Parades, Velasquez, Hinze, Wates There's more depth here than in year's past. About two years ago you would have seen this list filled at the backend with middle relief prospects. Instead now you see guys like Wallace, Keuchel, Parades, Hinze and Wates. Those guys likely won't be stars, but they can fill a major league bench cheaply and may provide stop gap starters during rebuilding. And who knows maybe one of them blows up like Wandy did. That said it's still not a good system. There's a lack of high end prospects and almost no pitching prospects. What's worse, a lot of the team's top prospects (and former top picks) going into the year have struggled. After Lyles and maybe Castro, Heck/Wade haven't had to best track record with their top picks. Now it's too soon to tell for sure on a lot of these guys (but it's getting close for guys like Austin, Mier, Meyer, Bushue) but you'd certainly like to see more from these former top picks. This trade deadline is going to be very important the future of franchise.
The Astros have probably gotten the system to the point that there's at least one pitcher at each level worth paying attention to. Probably except for OKC, but I hope Andy Van Hekken's long journey back to the majors can culminate in a call-up. OKC: Van Hekken Corpus: Dallas Keuchel, Xavier Cedeno, Ross Seaton Lancaster: Jake Buchanan, Jose "Jekyll and Hyde" Cisnero Lexington: Mike Foltynewicz, Tanner Bushue (although he's probably a B prospect at best) Tri-City: College Trio (Dufek, Tropeano, and Hallock), Mitchell Lambson, Juri Perez Greeneville: Luis Ordosgoitti, Jose Perdomo (despite his struggles, was electric in the Gulf Coast League) Gulf Coast: Adrian Houser, Evan Grills (reliever this year, but may get another chance to start)
Nice... looks like his bat has promise after all. Looking forward to his stint at Lexington next year.
JD Martinez went deep again, #11, so the one piece of his offense game that lacked seems to be coming together. His OPS is now over .960 and keep in mind that Whataburger Field is not a hitters ballpark.
The disturbing trend is how quickly the 1st round picks sink down the overall list. Mier was considered a top 3 prospect after he was drafted and played rookie ball, then he was probably still top 5 coming into this year, and now he is no where to be found. Deshields was top 2 coming into this year, now he has slipped down the list and is performing so poorly that he may soon be off the list with Mier. Just hope Springer does not follow the same path, but so far he is #2 based solely on scouting projections. Call me skeptical.
Springer is far more highly regarded offensively than those 2 guys. Unfortunately other than their walk rates, DD and Mier haven't shown much offensively.
DD Jr and Mier were High School kids and Springer, while a bit raw, a college junior, that's a huge difference. IF he can get some time at Tri-City this year, expect him to be at CC by the end of next season and a possible September call up in 2013.
Mier and DD Jr are still a very big part of this organizations future. They both still have some seasoning, and likely don't come up till 22-23 years old, but they're still on the radar as far as potential solid MLB players go.
Fernando A-bad allowed 3 runs in the 6th to allow Iowa to take a 3-1 lead on OKC. J.R. Towles hit a solo homer to cut the deficit to 1, but the Redhawks were unable to get the tie, ultimately losing 3-2. Koby Clemens had the other RBI. A-bad ruined a solid outing from Lucas Harrell, who was making his debut with OKC after being claimed off waivers. Harrell allowed 5 hits in 5 shutout innings tonight, walking 2 and striking out 5. A 26-year-old from Springfield, Missouri, Harrell was a 4th-round pick of the White Sox in 2004 out of Ozark High School. He had spent his entire career in the White Sox system, and made his major-league debut last season, going 1-0 with a 4.88 ERA in 8 appearances (3 starts). With Charlotte, he was 7-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 12 starts and a relief appearance. In 74 1/3, he allowed 67 hits (6 homers, .244 BAA), 28 runs (1 unearned), walked 26 (1.26 WHIP), and struck out 56. Also, in 3 relief appearances with Chicago, he had no record and a 7.20 ERA. In 5 innings, he allowed 11 hits, 4 runs, walked 1, and struck out 5. Nothing special, really. Looks like a guy who pitches to contact, walks his fair share of batters, and isn't known as a strikeout pitcher. Corpus lost to Frisco 8-3, as J.D. Martinez had a 2-run homer in the 1st, and added an RBI single in the 5th for the Hooks' offense. Jimmy Paredes tripled and scored twice. No Jose Altuve for the 5th game in a row. Jonnathan Aristil went 5 1/3, allowing 6 runs on 8 hits (a solo and a 2-run homer), walking 2 and striking out 6. After getting thrashed by Lake Elsinore, Lancaster walked off 3-2 losers. Miguel Arrendell doubled twice. Jio Mier went 1-3. Adam Bailey drove them both home. Robert Donovan probably won't be exchanging niceties with Kirk Clark tonight, after Clark ruined Donovan's brilliant outing, as he allowed 1 run on a solo homer in the 7th, 2 other hits, walked 1, and struck out 2. Clark, on the other hand, was able to get 2 outs, but one was a game-tying sac fly, and he eventually walked the bases loaded, then allowed the game-winning single. Lexington scored 1,1 and 4 from the 6th to the 8th innings to earn a 6-2 victory over Hagerstown. Delino DeShields went 3-5 with 2 RBI and scored a run. He's right at the Mendoza Line, raising his average to .214. Roberto Pena also drove in 2. Ben Orloff and Jay Austin drove in 1 apiece. Carlos Quevedo allowed 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings. He walked 2 and struck out 4. He didn't have his usual pinpoint control today. Jorge De Leon allowed the Suns to tie the game at 2, but he got the victory by virtue of allowing them the lone run, and the Legends' 4-run 8th helped matters a bit, as well. Tri-City slapped around Staten Island again, winning this one 8-2. Zach Johnson had a 2-run double and a sac fly. Brandon Meredith doubled, tripled, and drove in 2. Neiko Johnson went 2-4 with an RBI and scored twice, and Bubby Williams added a sac fly. Euris Quezada went 5 2/3, allowing 1 run on 4 hits, striking out 5. Greeneville jumped out to a 5-1 lead on Elizabethton after the 3rd, but the Twins ran off 7 unanswered to send the Appy Astros to their 4th straight loss, as the final score was 8-5. Ariel Ovando hit his first homer as a professional, a solo shot way, way out to right in the 2nd. No-doubter. Ruben Sosa had an RBI triple. So did Garen Wright. Jordan Scott scored on both of them. Wright also had an RBI groundout that allowed Sosa to score. Chase Davidson had an RBI groundout as well. Tyson Perez allowed a solo homer in the 5th. That was the only hit he allowed in 5 innings. He also allowed a run on a groundout in the 1st. Zach Dando and Paris Shewey collaborated on a meltdown, as they allowed 5 runs in the 7th. Dando had 3 while getting 1 out in the inning, and Shewey allowed the other 2 and couldn't get an out. Matison Smith was called on to clean up, and while he did allow 1 run on 3 hits in 2 2/3 innings of relief, he got 5 strikeouts. The Freeport native has nearly eclipsed his strikeout total from last season (21 last season, 20 this year), despite pitching in half the innings (34 to 15 1/3). He's also the owner of a 10:1 K:BB ratio, walking only 2 in his 15 1/3 innings. The Gulf Coasters lost 2-1 to the Mets. Yonathan Mejia's RBI single was the one run. Enderson Franco allowed 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings, walking 1 and striking out 4. Krishawn Holley got the loss, allowing 1 unearned run on 1 hit in the 7th, striking out 1. The Academy also lost to the Mets, 7-5. Teoscar Hernandez had a 2-run homer. Luis Abad went 5 innings and allowed 2 runs on 4 hits, walking 3 and fanning 2. Jandel Gustave took the loss, as he was tagged with 3 runs while only getting 1 out in the 6th.
I don't doubt that Deshields still works into the Astros plans in a big way down the line. At this point, Mier is older and a level behind Villar. Heck, Springer is only 11 months older than Mier, and we are dreaming of Springer being on the fast track. It's very rare for a guy to be hitting right around the Mendoza line as a 20 year old A ball player and then make a big impact at the major league level. Mier turns 21 in about a month.
But you forget which position he is playing. He's shown great improvement defensively as a SS... along with improved plate discipline. His average/power haven't progressed as many had hoped till now, but that could still improve. They're not any need to rush him. Ideally, he starts next season at AA... and then is a stones throw away from the big leagues, right around my projection at 22-23. Villar is supremely raw in ALL facets of the game. He will need more seasoning and likely has to learn to play the OF if Mier continues to improve at SS.
Yeah, but to be that putrid at the plate, he really would have needed to be at a point where he wouldn't need to show that much improvement on defense. If he can't hit and he can't run and his defense needed improvement, what are you left with? Poor man's Adam Everett maybe. Everett, for comparison's sake, hit .263 as a 22 year old in Double A, so I guess we will see next year. I'll be happy to be proven wrong...
The bottom line is that it is waaaay too premature to say he's not going to make it as a major leaguer. He was kept an additional year at Lexington this year in order to work on his plate discipline, which he did and thus the promotion to high A. His defense was already much improved from his rookie year, and is progressing just as it should. He was drafted as a guy with a potential plus bat as well as plus defense... Adam Everett never had "plus bat" potential, but he did live up to his "gold glove defense" potential. He's still on target to improve on his bat, keep up his defense, and be the Astros SS of the future... but you're right, it would be nice if he starts to show more consistency with improved BA/power.
What does your gut tell you about Mier's potential prospects as a major league ballplayers Nick? Honest question here, not trying to be funny.
Good for them. Gonzalez has Telvin Nash-like power; I can't wait to see that bat on the field.This means Flamion's probably headed for Oregon, and they're making a big push for Stubblefield.
