In New Hampshire, Shaheen leads Sununu by 7. Shaheen might have won last time if the Republicans had not illegally interfered with Dem turnout efforts. Too much of a lead for those shenanigans to have much effect this time. Good riddance.
Meanwhile, the Mississippi race continues to tighten to the point where Haley has to resort to suppressing the vote...
Franken up by 3 in a 3 way Minnesota race where people expect the third party voters to peel off to Franken or Coleman on election day, but nobody can offer a good guess as to how many will go where. http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3582
Al Franken? seriously? HAHAHAHA! well, he's good enough, he's smart enough, and DOGGONIT, people like him!
I'm amazed Minnesota can vote in the likes of Franken (potentially, since he doesn't have to win a majority) and Ventura or veer into extreme opposites like Paul Wellstone or that "Real Americans" female representative.
If you spent any time in Sweden, all would become clear. They think differently. Actually, if you spent any time in Sweden, it would become clear why it's not clear. The rest of Scandinavia is nearly as crazy. Lots of those folks moved to Minnesota.
plus franken isn't a vote for franken as much as its hate against coleman. also the self professed real american representative comes from a specific congressional district that leaned republican for last few elections. minnesota itself was the only state that voted against reagan in 84.
Its been quite a turnaround for Franken considering he's been down to Coleman, at times by double digits, most of the race. Coleman's been suffering from an erratic campaign where he, the RNC and 507 groups went very negative against Franken early and polling has shown that the negativity of the campaign has hurt Coleman. Coleman pulled his negative ads but that has made his campaign appear somewhat confused especially when the RNC's and 507 groups continue to go negative, even with Coleman calling on them to stop. At the sametime Obama's surge, economic downturn and Bachman's comments have seriously tarred the Republican brand in MN. Coleman has also never been fully embraced by Minnesotans and even while some have tried the carpet bagger angle on Franken, since he's lived most of his adult life outside of MN, it has helped that Coleman is still considered an East Coast transplant. While Coleman was a popular and successful mayor of St. Paul he's never had big outstate appeal as his loss in 98 for governor and only won in 2002 because of some very extraordinary circumstances. At the same time though Franken hasn't put this away because his baggage from being a comedian is still holding him back and frankly hasn't been that good on the stump. At the same time Dean Barkley the Independent candidate (who I am supporting) has mounted a tough third party challenge. This Senate race is likely going to go down to the wire and personal bias aside wouldn't rule out a Barkley win given that both major candidates have big negatives. The smart money though is on Franken winning buoyed by Obama coattails.
Minnesota is much more diverse than people think and while the Scandanavian / Lutheran vote is very signifigant its not necessarily determinative. Minnesota is primarily divided between an extremely liberal urban core in the Twin Cities, a generally Republican ring in the suburb,s a conservative Southern and Western agricultural ring and a traditionally Democrat (but socially conservative) Iron Range. Depending on how things swing when Democrats win the cities and Iron Range hold but when Republicans win the South and Suburbs hold Republican and enough of the Iron Range goes over to the Republicans. Most of this has very little to do with ethnicity but issues. The reason that Jesse Ventura had sucess was that he was able to tap into two things. The first is that while the suburbs are generally conservative it isn't strident and many suburbanites are socially liberal while fiscally conservative. The MN Independence party has developed a base of support among those people especially when both major parties have been putting up idealogues like Franken and Pawlenty. Also Jesse Ventura brought in a whole new group of voters that ordinarily don't vote, Vikings fans, bikers and wrestling fans.
That helped but consider that MN also voted for McGovern and Dukakis. The Democratic machine (Democrat Farmer Labor) up until the 90's was still fairly strong but it couldn't turnout the vote for Mondale in 2002.
I really hope the Democrats don't get to 60 seats. While I think 8 years of Republican control have been disastrous I am very distrustful of the Democrats controlling all parts of elected government with a fillibuster proof majority. I don't think single party control by either party is a good thing for the country.
I know the thread is geared more towards the down senate races, but this cannot be good news for the GOP in congress. GOP "Death List" Predicts Democratic Blowout in the House Voter displeasure with the war and economy, coupled with Sen. Barack Obama's popularity, has the House GOP running for cover. Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic route that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades. A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster. The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up." The fourth rating, "lean Republican," finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: "If there's a wave, some could be in trouble." The last "likely Republican" rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as "hopeful" GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as "possible" pickups. The loss of 34 House GOP seats is among the most dire predictions in Republican circles. Most analysts have suggested a drop of at least 20 seats and at most 30 seats. A key Democratic official refused to provide his own list but said, "I'd rather be us than them." http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washing...predicts-democratic-blowout-in-the-house.html
Understood, but Reagan completely trampled Mondale 59/41. Dukakis only lost 54/46. I think it's safe to say the only thing that saved MN for Mondale was being the native son. BTW, McGovern lost MN to Nixon in the 1972 massacre.
I feel the same way, but my antipathy for Republicans is at an all-time high. Part of me wants them to get slaughtered in the worst possible way to force them to rebuild from scratch. But my head tells me the Dems shouldn't get 60.
Republican national committee pulls out of CO senate race via TPM -- National GOP Pulls Out Of Colorado Senate Race A national GOP source has confirmed to Election Central that the NRSC is pulling out of the Colorado Senate race, where GOP candidate Bob Schaffer has been trailing in the polls for this Republican-held seat. With this seat now effectively ceded to the Democrats, the Dems are one step closer to 60 Senate seats.
