2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Obama (D-IL) vs. McCain (R-AZ)

Batman, I never saw the pictures (still haven't) and never knew he was 16 until he said so in this thread. And I still am surprised that no one else seemed to take offense at the original post but me. I'm not saying they should have put this guy on ignore, like I did, and maybe it is a generational thing (I don't think that should matter). As I've said here 2 or 3 times, I originally intended to begin posting in this thread after I got a real apology from him, if he offered one. Then I found out he had used the same joke on another forum. I freely admit that it ticked me off.

Had I known he was 16 in the original thread, I would have simply told him to grow up. I still would have put him on ignore, probably, because RFK was a hero of mine, but that would have been that. And, as Walter said, that's the way it is. Don't worry... there are plenty of political threads here about the election that I can post in. I think I'm done in this one.



Impeach Bush.

 

Hell, I'm more pissed at you for visiting the Spurs forum in the first place. Back to the topic. Go Obama!

 

BOOM!

 

Thanks for the poll, rimrocker. That deserves its own thread if you ask me.

 

I cannot relate fully to the RFK thing, since I was born in 1973.

What I can say is this:

1. Deckard has been contriubting quality posts to this forum for a long time. We agree on almost nothing politically, but our discourse has ALWAYS been friendly, respectful, and informative. I believe that he has earned a little leeway. If the RFK thing bothered him as much as it did, I would rather him address it here than start a whole new thread for it.

2. The assassination of RFK was a national tragedy. This, IMO, transcends politics. If you are an American, the assassination of a Presidential candidate should sadden you, regardless of your political stance.

I support McCain. Many people have hinted that Obama could get assassinated. If Obama were assassinated, it would be a very bad day in our nation's history. I want our nation's leaders chosen by election, not by default.

Oh...BTW...SpursTalk???? WTF?????

 

I had to pop back in here to respond to this, Refman. I really, really appreciate what you said. Thank you, and I certainly won't forget it. When you boil things down to their essence, there are people behind the monikers, who have real lives and have their own personal histories. That can be easy to forget in the heat of a debate, but I've always tried to remember it. I even think there's a really cool guy somewhere behind basso's persona.

Again, thanks for the post. It meant a lot.




Impeach Bush.

 

Maybe we can get this thread back on track with this article from the Washington Post. It mirrors my thoughts that Obama's campaign is focused and has a clear plan on how to win the election. His people seem to be grounded with the idea this contest will be fought "tooth & nail" and will not be a blowout.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/22/AR2008062201964.html?hpid=topnews

Obama Moves to Reintroduce Himself to Voters

By Dan Balz and Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, June 23, 2008; A01

In the opening weeks of the general-election campaign, Sen. Barack Obama has moved aggressively to shape his campaign and offered a clear road map for the kind of candidate he is likely to become in the months ahead: an ambitious gamer of the electoral map, a ruthless fundraiser and a scrupulous manager of his own biography in the face of persistent concerns about how he is perceived.

Obama's early maneuvers suggest a clear understanding within the campaign of his strengths and weaknesses. He bought air time in 18 states, a sure sign that he hopes to expand Democrats' traditional electoral map. He opted out of the public campaign-financing system -- revealing his determination to press his financial advantage, even at the cost of handing his Republican opponent the opportunity to raise questions about the sincerity of his rhetoric on reform.

And with a first ad that delves into his biography, Obama acknowledged ongoing concerns among his advisers that voters do not know whether he shares the values and beliefs of ordinary Americans, a potentially critical vulnerability. The ad speaks to the reality that enough questions were raised about Obama through the long nomination battle that he needs to address them. The campaign's concerns include both taking on misinformation -- such as the persistent claim that he is Muslim when he is in fact a Christian -- and framing a biography unlike that of any nominee in the modern era.

"Any of the attempts to describe him inaccurately he takes head-on with the new commercial," said Valerie Jarrett, one of Obama's closest friends and confidants. "You begin a new campaign with an introduction. You can't presume that everybody was paying attention during the primary season. So let's start with basics. He describes his roots, his philosophy, his love of country. That's a really good start."

Jim Margolis, Obama's media adviser, said that, despite the long primary season, Obama still is not well known to voters in many parts of the country. "They don't know the full story," he said. "They don't have a complete sense of what motivates him, what are the biographical points of his life that have made him the person that he is today and what he wants to do as president."

Margolis said the campaign is primarily working to fill an information vacuum, but he acknowledged that combating rumors that could endanger Obama's candidacy is also part of the motivation behind the opening ad.

"There are just a lot of big holes there for a lot of people," he said. "But, to be sure, we live in a different world than we lived in before. This campaign is only possible because of the Internet, because of the technology, because we could raise a couple of hundred million dollars [from] 1.5 million Americans who on average gave less than $100 each. Could not have happened 10 years ago. On the other hand, you're constantly dealing with the misinformation that can spread quickly, where in 24 hours you can get millions of hits."

Even as the campaign seeks to take control of Obama's image, hammering home the message that his is a thoroughly American story, the decision last week to opt out of the public financing system -- and forgoing more than $84 million in campaign funds -- added a new dimension to his profile as a politician. And it appeared to immediately cut both ways. Sen. John McCain pounced on the decision, questioning Obama's character. "He has completely reversed himself and gone back, not on his word to me, but the commitment he made to the American people," McCain told reporters Thursday, citing Obama's initial pledge to stay within the existing campaign finance rules.

Yet Obama's advocates also argue a positive lesson about their candidate's character can be drawn from the decision: that Obama is willing to take political risks in order to win. His toughness as a politician was often questioned during the Democratic primary, as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton cast herself as the only Democrat able to do hand-to-hand combat with Republicans. "People and commentators have been saying we know Barack is hopeful and that he appeals to a broad cross section of the public," Jarrett said. "But perhaps people didn't know how tough he is. He's been saying all along, don't confuse hope with naivete."

If some Republicans rue the swift and calculated nature they say characterizes Obama's early steps, his campaign advisers say they have needed to move quickly to make up for the months spent waging the extended primary race. They cast the decision on public financing, for example, as motivated partly by timing, with just four full months left until Election Day to provide voters with the vision of Obama they hope to establish.

The scope of Obama's first advertising buy sent an unmistakable signal to McCain and the GOP that, at least initially, the senator from Illinois will invest money in states no Democrat has won in years, including Georgia, Indiana and Alaska. A recent poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Obama within two points of McCain in Alaska, although well below 50 percent. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe predicted that Indiana "is going to be a dogfight" in the fall, even though Obama lost the primary there in May.

The content of the ad drew plaudits even from some Republicans for its focus on values, tax cuts and welfare reform. "He is not trying to cobble together the old Democratic coalition of interest groups and get 48 percent like John Kerry," Alex Castellanos, a Republican media consultant, said in an e-mail message. "This is not three yards and a cloud of dust. This is an aggressive leap across the 50-yard line to play on Republican turf."

Throughout the past week, other elements of Obama's aggressive outreach were on display. Shifting increasingly toward general-election issues, he met with military officers and a newly formed national security working group. He hit McCain over a secret meeting the Republican held with Hispanics in Chicago -- a hit that is part of his effort to win over a group that backed Clinton overwhelmingly in the primary and could be key to helping him reshape his electoral opportunities to include Western states.

At his meeting with 16 Democratic governors on Friday, the participants, including some of Clinton's most politically important backers, gushed about the degree to which his campaign staff had sought their input, inviting them to Chicago for dinner, putting them onstage with Obama at a briefing and asking each governor to bring in a top political aide who can be involved in planning as the campaign progresses.

"This isn't about 'I'm coming to your state, and can you go do a photo op,' " said Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Another Democratic governor, Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan, said the level of contact from the Obama campaign has surpassed any she has ever received from a presidential candidate. "We've never been reached out to in this way," said Granholm, a former Clinton supporter.

Given that he is running in a year in which the political climate is as favorable for the Democrats as it has been in any year in recent memory, one question the Obama team must grapple with is why the presumptive Democratic nominee does not have a more substantial lead over McCain in early polls.

Top advisers point to several factors. First, they acknowledge that the long nomination battle has left scars within the party. Right now, polls show that Obama is winning a smaller share of Democratic support than McCain is winning of Republican support. Campaign officials expect that to change as the summer progresses.

But they also acknowledge that McCain runs better with independent voters than anyone else the GOP might have nominated. By the fall they hope to have drawn enough distinctions with McCain to make those independents think twice about their support for him.

Finally, they argue, they have not yet begun to compete for Republican support, particularly among women who favor abortion rights or GOP voters disaffected with President Bush. In the end, they believe that whichever candidate wins the highest percentage of voters in the other party is likely to be the next occupant of the White House.

 

Anytime Deckard.

I meant every word.

 

New Poll Shows Obama Up by Three Points in McCain's Home State

In a sign of continued weakness in his home state, an online poll shows Sen. John McCain trailing Sen. Barack Obama by 3-percentage points in Arizona. The poll also shows the candidacy of Liberterian Bob Barr is having a significant impact on McCain's campaign by siphoning off conservative voters nationwide.

The Arizona poll was part of nationwide Zogby International poll that put Obama ahead in total electoral votes with 273 to 160 for McCain. The poll found 11 states with 105 electoral votes too close to call -- including Arizona. McCain’s campaign in June included Arizona among its list of swing states.

http://washingtonindependent.com/view/mccains-arizona-woes

 

a poll was just taken showing that 80% of polls are 50% crap

 

The extreme dichotomy between some of these state polls vs. the national polls continues to defy logic.

 

I think the most interesting things about the daily tracking polls is that they seem to show support and ceiling levels. I don't think the day to day movements are all that significant, but it's interesting to note that in Gallup, McCain has a ceiling at 44% and Obama has a floor at 45%. In Rasmussen, without leaners, McCain tops out at 43%, while that's Obama's floor. With leaners, McCain's ceiling is 46% and Obama's floor is the same.

I think the only time these polls will become relevant if either candidate breaks those levels for several days (McCain up or Obama down) - to me, that would indicate a real shift in preferences. Until then, it's just all statistical noise.

(McCain also has a floor and Obama a ceiling, so that could have an impact too - that's basically McCain breaking under 40% or Obama over 50%).

 

The bounce Obama gets from the overseas jaunt will only be temporary. He must hit the ground running when he returns or the election will snap right back into a dead heat after a few days.

 

I was kind of thinking the opposite. I was thinking that initially there may even be a drop in polls because of his overseas travel, but that in the end people will remember it and feel safer than before with his foreign policy competence and expertise. Down the road he may be able to point to this and show how well things went.