2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Obama (D-IL) vs. McCain (R-AZ)

Holy Crapola! I hope those polls are on target. That's a huge change in a very, very short span of time. WOW! Still figure the popular vote will be tight, within 3% points or less, with a landslide in the Electoral College, which I would consider to be close to 300 votes or more... and I think it will be more than 300 for Obama/Biden.

 

Still 2 debates and lots of poo flinging to be done. I will remain cautiously optimistic.

 

The McCain camp is whining about the polls already:

Link

McCain pushback to Q polls

They don't think they're down that much:

“These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thins they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2%, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the volume of campaigning in those states, we expect that they are close to the national track – if not tighter.”

 

This poll is obviously not accurate. Obama's lead is widening, but not nearly as dramatic.

 

Per the first article on http://www.fivethiryeight.com today

 

I remain convinced that, for Obama to win, he will need to be polling 8-10 points ahead come election day. The "Bradley effect" or what-have-you, will be significant.

It's not so much a statement about racism, but he's the more "popular" choice. If you get asked in the street these days (depending on where you live of course), it might in general be less brave to say "Obama" instead of "McCain" even if you're sitting on the fence, or leaning toward McCain.

I think this sort of thing happened with the exit polls in 04. Who wanted to admit they were voting for Bush again? But clearly he was preferred by many to the alternative.

 

Agreed and we also don't know how young voters and minorities will turn out on election day. This is THE main issue. Can Obama get first time voters off their butts and into the voting booth?

The answer: I'm sending in my application for ballot by mail today and will be voting for the first time So that makes 1 new voter.

 

I think this is correct. Obama would be killing McCain if it were not for race. Bush is the least popular president in the recent history of polling and McCain has voted with him 90 plus percent.

 

Anybody know if young voters are still fired up about Obama?

 

Eh, I could see it. Honestly, it's been surprising how little some of the state polls have moved this past week or so, even after Obama has consistently held a 5-9 point lead nationally. Ohio and Florida were already tossups and consistently polling within 2 points either way, even when the race was approximately tied or McCain was up a few points. So now that Obama has really opened up a bit of a lead, it's definitely possible that he's up outside the MOE in Ohio and Florida.

 

Given that I'm out of school and have been in the "real world" for a few years now, I would put myself on the older edge of "young voters." I have voted in other elections, but this will be my first presidential one.

I can't say for a fact that the college kids will vote in massive numbers, but I'd say that with a struggling economy and unpopular war combined with a charismatic and in-touch candidate like Obama... more will show up than they have in decades.

 

Intrade Predicts LANDSLIDE win for Obama...

Today's electoral map from www.intrade.com predicts a landslide for Obama. The bettors think he will sweep all the states Kerry won plus the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The only swing state bettors think McCain will take is Missouri, which ironically is the best bellwether since 1900. If this map ends up being the final one, Obama wins 339 electoral votes to McCain's 200. Here it is.

 

CNN has a new batch of polls out that seems to back up Quinnipiac's findings.

Florida: Obama by 4
Virginia: Obama by 9
Missouri: Obama by 1 (when's the last time people seriously thought MO was in play?)
Minnesota: Obama by 11
Nevada: Obama by 4

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-major-gain-for-obama-in-battleground-states/

 

On the CNN poll via TPM --

Four of these states were won by George W. Bush twice, with Minnesota being the only exception. All totaled, those four red states add up to 56 electoral votes -- and John McCain can barely afford to lose even one electoral vote from the Republican column.

 

These poll numbers are straight up sexist by the gotcha media journalists who are evil and deserves to go to hell...

 

Au contraire mon freir! It's not sexist; the word you seek is sexy!

 

Mizzou has shown people the way...

I think it is actually worse than that, because a lot of the younger voters are not being polled, and they are overwhelmingly Obama....

This is going to be an epic message to the republican party....Marginalize the evangelicals...and get back to fiscal conservatism.

DD

 

^I hope so. A Pelosi-Reid Congress doesn't get the blood running.