2008 Presidential Election Night Thread

wow, his double pump move is better than yao

 

Keep in mind the limited value and unreliability of leaked exits, but Drudge is reporting PA is Obama +15 according to exits. That's the first leak I've seen.

 

Everyone should read the entry from fivethirtyeight.com on exit polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

"8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from "first-wave" exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated."

 

these are from the media briefing conducted by the official exit poll consortium (altho i don't think you can describe the numbers as "official" exits:

 

Look to Virginia. If Barack carries Virginia, which I have marked down as a win for him, it's going to be a big night tonight for Democrats.

 

he's not carrying virginia.

 

B.S. basso already called PA for McCain.

 

Yes he is. Tip Jar bet, basso? $50 bucks?

 

i've already hit the tip jar, so no thanks, but trust me, if the above exits are accurate, VA goes J-Mac.

 

correct.

 

If the exits you posted truly are accurate, then VA goes to Obama by 2%.

 

nope, but it'd take too long to explain why, and there's data we don't know (early votes). still, i read these #s as good news- we shall see.

 

This table makes no sense to me. Can you explain it?

 

Numbers starting to come in.

 

Thanks for posting those direct links!

You are my hero tonight