HELL YEA WE GOT FRIGGAN ROSS SEATON! top texas prospect IMO. he's tall and projectable and he's got a 90-93mph fastball with room for more. good pickup. he was being talked about as high as the supplemental. great pick houston! just need to sign him.
3rd round supplemental signing bonus is only around 400k. its gonna take at least $750k to sign seaton IMO.
Lindbloom who the Astros drafted 3 years ago in the third round went to the Dodgers in the supplemental first round.
Here's my analysis of our draft 1. C Jason Castro, Stanford Sigh...it's not like he's a bad player, it's just that he isn't a top 10 value or top 10 talent. He had 1 good summer and 1 good spring, so there really isn't much of a track record there. He's a good overall defender. I think his ceiling is a solid average catcher and hitter with potential to be a #6 hitter. 1S. RHP Jordan Lyles, Hartsville HS, South Carolina A great athlete who also signed as a WR at South Carolina. Tall and lanky with projectable growth. Great mechanics and an easy delivery. Sits at 86-88 right now, but as he grows into his body, should be able to sit at 90-93mph. I like his potential, but I don't think he provides much value at pick 38. He could turn into a very good player, but we could have gotten him in the 2nd round IMO. 2. CF Jay Austin, North Atlanta HS, Georgia A small but speedy lefty hitter. Has 3 very good tools in his speed, defense, and ability to make contact. He has an average arm that doesnt project much because of his size. Power doesn't project much, but he could have some pop down the road. Suprisingly, he hit 15 homers in highschool, but I just don't see him hitting for much power at the next level due to his size and his swing. 3. 1B Chase Davidson, Milton HS, Georgia I like this pick. Davidson has monster power potential and a smooth swing. Could use some polishing up here and there, but I think he definitely has major league potential. 3S. RHP Ross Seaton, Second Baptist HS, Texas Homerun! Arguably the top pitcher in Texas this year, he fell due to a strong committment to Tulane. Sits at 89-92mph and touches 94mph every now and then with room to add more velocity as he grows into his lanky frame. Solid command for a highschooler with a good slider and potential to throw an average changeup. 4. CF TJ Steele, Arizona Hate this pick. When you draft guys in the top 5 rounds, or draft anybody for that matter, you have to ask yourself, "will this player have a legit chance to make it to the big leagues, and will he able to contribute in the bigs?" The answer to both those for Steele is no. He strikes out wayyyy too much and walks hardly at all. That doesn't bode well for him, as that is a very strong indicator of future success. People just dont learn how to cut down on their strikeouts or make more consistent contact. He has raw power and he's got good speed, but I have my doubts as to whether this guy will ever make it out of the minors. 5. LHP David Duncan, Georgia Tech An intriguing pick. He has some projectability left in his body at 6'9 230lbs. If he can add some strength, he could perhaps add some velocity. Currently he sits 87-89mph with a pretty big curveball. He does have some pitchibility and doesn't walk too many guys. However, he doesn't make batters miss and he allows a fair amount of hits and doesn't strikeout many batters. His ceiling is as a 4th or 5th starter. 6. CF Jack Shuck, OSU A speedy centerfielder with absolutely no power. Doesn't project much more than a utility guy. He actually pitches as well, but I don't see him as a pitcher. I don't like this pick either as he provides no upside and doesnt project to contribute everyday. He's a singles hitter who doesnt walk or strikeout. Honestly not a terrible draft. Castro could turn out to be a safe pick, and hopefully he could build on his past few seasons. I like all of our highschool picks as they all offer tremendous upside. Our college picks seem to be filler picks to fill roster spots on our minor league rosters. On day 2 of the draft, two players I would love to see us take are Cole St. Clair from Rice and Jordan Danks from Texas. St. Clair's stock has fallen the past 2 years due to injuries and inconsistency, but he still offers alot of upside as a potential deadly lefty reliever. He's got a deceptive delivery and a fastball at 88-92mph with a good curveball. Danks hasn't fulfilled the vast potential that many saw in him as a highschooler, but if he could tap into his inner power potential, he could be a great pick. He's got 3 above average tools in his speed, defense, and arm strength. His power potential is there since he hits quite a few doubles. He needs to add strength to his frame and maybe those doubles turn into homers. His ability to make contact and keep his strikeouts down are also a question since he's 6'5 and his swing gets a little long at times. However, he has a good eye and draws alot of walks to offset the strikeouts.
Ha, quick... name five. Teams quite obviously should know local area players better than kids from Alaska. Hometown should make a difference and in particular in our case because Houston produces more talent than Alaska. Ed Wade can not only see any Houston high schooler any day of the week, he can meet their families and coaches, friends, and so on and also get a feel for the competition they face and the quality of baseball in that district. When's he making that trip to Alaska to watch all their kids and get all of that info? Uh... good point man.
I can't name 5 in the 40th round off the top of my head, but Mike Piazza had a really nice career out of the 62nd round. He was the last freaking player selected.
agree. especially in texas where there is premium talent all across the region. also, the astros have a strong history of winning, and hopefully we've built a strong enough fan base among highschool players that theyll actually want to be astros when theyre draft eligible. hopefully seaton signs with us because of the allure of being an astro.
Mike Piazza, Kenny Rogers, Marcus Giles (he had four very good years), Mark Buehrle, Jeff Conine. Yeah, Buehrle was 38 I believe, but close enough that the point stands. And those are just five modern, clearly above average guys off the top of my head. There are certainly a lot more, if you expand the pool beyond this decade and expand it to MLB-regular types instead of those who have clearly excelled. Let me know if you still want to deny the obvious, and we can keep playing this game -- I have no problems doing that. The MLB draft is absurdly random. High picks routinely bust, and very late round picks often excel. I don't know if you're kidding or not, but the Astros have scouts all over the place who make trips to Alaska every year. Ed Wade isn't particularly more baseball adept or savvy than a given member of the scouting staff -- he's just the lead face on the operation. (And he's making plenty of trips, himself.) In addition to their own scouts, they have dozens of services, contacts and information-sharing agreements with other clubs (see Rockets/Wolves in basketball, for example). I'll agree that there comes a point later in the draft where the pool simply becomes too large for the scouts and services in an organization to handle, and at that point, hometown becomes a factor. But in the context of the first few rounds -- which the discussion today was about -- you better believe the Astros know everything in the world about Joe Schmo from Alaska that they do about someone from Houston. They've had scouts at his games. They've talked to people around him. They've researched the district. Now, is Houston a hot spot for talent that the team should focus on? Sure, but no more so than most other major metros around the United States which have similar baseball demographics. Later in the draft, when the potential pool grows out of control, yes -- it becomes a factor. In the context of today's discussion -- when you're talking top 200 or so -- it absolutely does not. You're very naive if you don't think modern day organizations have that kind of reach. And no, I'm not speculating here -- I know this from personal, first-hand knowledge.
According to the Chron we have already signed our supplemental pick Lyles. This is good I take it Drayton will open it up for the H.S. kids this year. "With the 38th pick, a sandwich pick between the first and second round, the Astros chose Jordan Lyles, a 6-4, 185-pound righthander from Hartsville High School in South Carolina. Lyles signed Thursday night for an undisclosed amount." http://www.thestate.com/sports/story/426203.html “We had an idea he’d go second or third round, but he went higher than that,” Lee said. “He went down to Houston to work out for the Astros and he did pretty well there. He struck out four or five batters, and his velocity was getting up higher than they’d seen before. “It got up to about 93 miles per hour, and they kind of bumped him up on their board a little. “We kind of expected to lose him; we thought he’d be drafted pretty good.” Lyles earned a “more than $900,000” signing bonus, according to advisor Lee Vaughan
well cole st clair and jordan danks are off the board now. danks taken ahead of our pick but we passed on st clair. our day 2 draft isnt really impressing me right now. alot of filler picks who dont project much
One things that should be taken into account when viewing the Astros first few picks is that the Brewers, where Heck (our scouting director) came from, have a history with "reaching" with first round picks. They also have a history of doing very well with those reaches. Everyone had Matt La Porta going at the end of the first round last year, but the Brewers selected him 7th overall. He's now one of the top prospects in all of baseball. They had other "reaches" as well. I think part of that is due to their budget (they, like the astros, are one of the few teams that absolutely follows mlb slotting guidelines) and part of that is just probably due to confidence in their scouting. How much of that success is due to Heck or the Brewer Scouting director, i don't know, but Heck and the Astros deserve the benefit of the doubt.
yea, but laporta had huge power and everyone knew he would hit. the main question was where he'd play since they already had prince fielder. we dont know too much about castro because he has no track record and he doesnt project to be a 20 homer type.
Well he just hit a home run right now. Its hard to just say that someone wont project to be a 20 home run guy. There's still alot of time for them to develop. Look a Piazza a 62nd round pick.
Jason Castro 2-3 so far with a 2 run homer in the 1st game of the supers. After watching him, I still feel he was a bit overvalued because of his position, but calling him a reach may be a bit much. His swing is very condusive of backspin, which leads to doubles and home runs. He hit his homer to left center field, showing that he has the ability to stay back on balls and drive them the other way. 10 was a little high for him, but I think he would have been properly valued AFTER Justin Smoak. If he had been taken at pick 11, I'm not so sure people would be making as big a fuss. He would definitely be gone by the time the Mets picked at 18, so lets look at picks 11-18. 11. 1B Justin Smoak 12. 2B Jemile Weeks 13. 1B Brett Wallace 14. OF Aaron Hicks 15. P/3B Ethan Martin 16. C/IF Brett Lawrie 17. 1B David Cooper 18. 1B/OF Ike Davis Outside of Smoak, none of those guys really jumps out to me as being a better player or better value than Castro. There's 4 1B, a raw outfielder in Hicks, a small 2B in Weeks (he's 5'7 165lbs), a big time Canadian hitter in Lawrie, and a raw pitcher in Martin. Out of those guys, Lawrie and Martin may have the most upside, but they also have alot of questions. Martin has great stuff, but is relatively inexperienced. Lawrie has no true position and he's...Canadian. Watching his video wasnt very pretty either. So what's my evaluation of Castro? He's a solid guy who could be a guy who throws out 30-35% of base stealers and hit .275 with 10 homers and 65 RBI. He does have strength, and could possibly hit 15-20 homers some day, but he seems like a pretty "safe" guy despite the fact that he doesn't have much of a track record of success. Now, those 4 1B will no doubt out produce his bat, but we also got a huge 1B in the 3rd round who has quite a bit of upside as well. After Chase Davidson was picked, no 1B was picked until pick 143. The Astros say they'll move him to the OF, but I think his future is at 1B. So...my evaluation? The Astros chose the best available catcher, and still a 1st round value, but increased the value of that 1st round pick by picking up Chase Davidson in the 3rd. If the Astros are sure that both of those guys will turn out to be what they thought they'd be, then the duo would be the best 1B/C value in the top 5 rounds. Scouts are right when they say there is a considerable dropoff in catcher talent after Castro. None of them have the upside that Castro has. Was it a great pick? Probably not, but they MADE Castro the right pick by taking Davidson in the 3rd.
