The Astros are IMHO definitely going to have to go offer slot money to sign any of the high school players in the first round. If they go college player, their chances are greater of signing the draftee since their options are limited. That being said I still hope they pick the BPA and don't let the signing bonus demands dictate how they draft. IMHO Hosmer is going to drop simply because of his signing bonus demands (he is a Boras client), Alvarez might not be #1 but he'll be a top five pick based on his talent and the fact that he plays a premium position. According to Jim Callis @ BA, the Astros are pining for Kyle Skipworth, C out of California (HS). After reading his scouting reports I can see why the Astros or any team for that matter would like him. Whatever they do, I hope the Astros pick some players who can reach their potential and help shore up the farm system.
Why the heck are we looking at drafting another HS catcher? Didn't we waste a first round pick a couple years ago on Max Sapp, who is barely hitting above .200 in single A ball and not showing ANY power at all? I'm in favor of drafting college players since there are less unknows about their true abilities
skipworth will probably go #6 to the marlins so dont worry. not all players are the same. just because you have one failed prospect, you dont pass over a guy because of past experiences. sapp probably had the most power of any highschool player, so i can see why they drafted him. however, i pretty much pulled my hair out over the pick because i thought he'd be a 1S or 2nd rounder.
Future Shock The Draft's Dirty Dozen by Kevin Goldstein http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7570 10. Houston Astros. Things have become a touch muddled here, as both Texas-based teams, picking back-to-back, were hot and heavy in their mutual interest in Fresno State righty Tanner Scheppers, who has since dropped out of first-round contention due to a stress fracture in his shoulder. Suddenly, rumors abound that Houston is interested in some of the college relievers who could potentially sign quickly and get the big leagues in a hurry, like Georgia’s Josh Fields, or Arizona's Daniel Schlereth. The latter is a stocky southpaw who opened many eyes last weekend when he came out sitting at 92-94 mph and touching 97; he's been rocketing up draft lists. Tenth overall might be too big a jump for him, but the rumor he’s in the mix is there.
i think with so many picks early, we take the sure thing in yonder alonso and then take higher upside guys with our other picks. my thinking is that in 3 years, we'll still be in win now mode and hopefully alonso will be ready by then and we could possibly trade him for a pitcher who could help us down the stretch.
The draft is tomorrow. John Sickels says he is hearing a strong Dan Schlereth to Houston rumor. minorleagueball.com Here is a draft profile of him. Lefty pitcher relief pitcher out of arizona U. projects as a middle reliever or a setup man. http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=schlereth Im hoping this is a smoke screen. 10 picks are valuable and i'm not sure you want to use the first one you have in years in a reach to pick up a middle reliever.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615 1. Tampa Bay Rays - Buster Posey, C 2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tim Beckham, SS 3. Kansas City Royals - Pedro Alvarez, 3B 4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP 5. San Francisco Giants - Gordon Beckham, SS 6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C 7. Cincinnati Reds - Brett Lawrie, INF 8. Chicago White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B 9. Washington Nationals - Eric Hosmer, 1B 10. Houston Astros Houston is looking to make up for last year’s draft debacle, when they didn’t pick until the third round, and then were unable to sign their first two picks, leaving fifth-round selection Collin DeLome as their torch-holder for the year. They’ll have some excellent college players available to them, and while the system needs practically everything, they have no big-time power prospects in their system, and Alonso would change that. Signability could be an issue here, but it would be no different with selecting Crow. Selection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
I wish there was a can't miss pitching prospect that we'd be able to get...Just get the best athlete regardless of position...
My top 10 Big Board 1. LHP Matusz I think he's a bit safer and more polished than Crow even though Crow has better stuff 2. RHP Crow Has great stuff and showed good command throughout his career. 3. SS G Beckham He has a bat that could hit 15-25 homers at either SS or 2B. We lack talent at both positions. 4. 3B Alvarez Probably has the best bat this year. Has a good arm, but it's negated by his below average range and hands. Might need to move to 1B. 5. SS T Beckham Plenty of tools, but will probably take 4-5 years in the minors to develop. 6. C Posey I think he compares favorably to Russell Martin and a younger Jason Kendall. Should hit .285+ with 15 homers and throw out 35+% of basestealers. 7. 1B Hosmer He's higher on the list than the polished college 1B because he's more athletic and can throw 98mph. I think he could play LF for a few years before moving to 1B. Not to mention he's the best highschool bat this year. Suprisingly high strikeout rate for a highschooler is a bit concerning though. 8. 1B Alonso I think he may be a safer pick than Smoak, but a little less upside. I expect him to be a 40 double, 30 home run type. 9. 1B Smoak Smoak has power that is comparable to Alvarez and a better approach. However, he's not quite as natural a hitter as either Alvarez or Alonso. Could also tweak a few things in his setup. Could potentially be a 35-40 home run type and play gold glove defense. 10. C Skipworth High upside guy who could be average defensively at catcher. At 6'4, he might have to move. A very good natural hitter. Could be comparable to Joe Mauer with the bat, but it's Mauer's overall polish and defensive prowess that made him the #1 pick and why Skipworth is a 5-10 pick.
Not to be a homer, but if Crow's around at 10, I don't see how this team can not pick him. He's far too talented and proven to pass up, especially with the pitching situation in this organization.
contract demands? for some reason i thought boris might be his agent. Cant find it online. would that even make a difference now?
Exactly, if Crow, or even less likely, Matusz, fall to 10, we won't hesitate to take them. If both are gone, which I expect, I'd still be happy with Friedrich out of Eastern Kentucky.
Do you take the risky need with Friedrich or Shooter Hunt, or do you go for the safer option but more of a luxory pick in a polished power hitter in Smoak or Alonso? Me, I go for Smoak/Alonso. I think Smoak and Alonso both will be quicker to the majors and will adjust easier to facing major league competition. With Friedrich and Hunt, both have ALOT of questions. Friedrich hasn't faced very good competition, and even at that level, his command has been below average to average at best. How will he adjust to better competition in the minors, and then how will he adjust to facing major league competition? His stuff is good, not great as well, usually throwing 90-91 with a below average changeup but a good curveball. There's alot of similarities between him and Brian Bogusevic IMO, from stuff to command, and that didn't turn out so well. As for Hunt, he's dominated pretty good competition, but his command is awful. It might be due to his overall approach to pitching, but he really needs to get with a pitching coach. He's shown he can rack up strikeouts, and he doesnt allow many hits, so what's the deal? He's thrown alot of wild pitches and he's hit a decent amount of hitters. He's got a drop and drive delivery with some effort, and he could clean up his mechanics a bit. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up having a better career than Aaron Crow if he ever gets his command right. If I HAD to choose a pitcher, it would be Hunt over Friedrich. I just think he's a little more proven even with his command issues. And even with the command issues, he's shown he can be dominant at times.
When does it start? Have some picks been made already? Edit: Nevermind, just saw on ESPN that they won't start until noon central.
In some last minute draft news it appears that the Rays have decided on hs ss Tim Beckham. Meaning the top 3 appears to go Beckham, Alvarez to Pittsburgh, and Hosmer to KC. Cincy also looks like they'll take G. Beckham if he falls them at 7. Here are some last minute mock drafts BA http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266271.html "0. HOUSTON. The Astros initially seemed to be on college starting pitchers, but that crop dried up when Fresno State's Tanner Scheppers hurt his shoulder and Tulane's Shooter Hunt went into a late-season slump. Houston has been hoping for Skipworth and now it seems like he will get past the first nine picks. The Astros are the first team that could pull the trigger on Lawrie, with Eastern Kentucky lefthander Christian Friedrich the best college starter if they go in that direction. Projected Pick: KYLE SKIPWORTH, c, Patriot HS, Rubidoux, Calif." Saberscouting: http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/06/04/draftweekmock1/ "#10 - Houston Astros Frankie’s Projection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane Kiley’s Projection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri Frankie: The Astros are looking far and wide for a big arm to draft and Hunt seems like the perfect match. Not only is he a big, power arm but he could also move fairly quickly up the ladder. Hunt should be on the table for them to grab if they want him or they could go with the likes of someone like Gerrit Cole or Aaron Crow if he falls to them. Kiley: And, in my scenario, Aaron Crow falls to them. He’s slipped some with reported high bonus demands and stuff that faded down the stretch, but he’s a potential frontline arm, despite some funk in the arm action. The Astros could go bat here with Yonder Alonso, opt for a power college arm alternative in Shooter Hunt, or maybe pop Boras-advised, polarizing prep hurler Gerrit Cole." jonathon mayo at mlb.com has them passing on Crow for Brett Lawrie: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080604&content_id=2837388&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp "10. Houston Astros: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C. It's time to take a shot with a wild card. Every draft has a top 10 surprise and there was some buzz that Lawrie would be it here. Word was the Astros really wanted Skipworth, but with him gone, they went for what could be the next best impact bat, and one that could also play behind the plate. College pitching is still an option, with Andrew Cashner being the best option Last projection: Justin Smoak" John Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/ "So if the Hosmer/Royals rumors pan out, that would certainly alter the rest of the first round. Would it look something like this then? HOSMER TO ROYALS SCENARIO 1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: No change 2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: No change 3) Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Will Royals meet Boras asking price? 4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: I still think this is a good fit 5) Giants: Buster Posey: C, Florida State: Would be easier to fit into the lineup long-term than Smoak. 6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: No change 7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: No Change. 8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: No Change. 9) Nationals: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Someone has to fall. Could it be Smoak? 10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: no change. Late rumor has Dan Schlereth going here. 11) Rangers: Aaron Hicks, RHP-OF, California HS: Tools and arm strength? Would the Rangers do this? Then things could pan out as stated before. If Schlereth does go 10, that would shake a lot of things up." If either Smoak, Skipworth, or Crow falls to the Astros at 10 I would be happy and hope they would take them.
I was listening to Richard Justice inteviewing a writer from Baseball America a while back and they were talking about possibilities for the Astros. Did anybody else listen to that? I'm trying to remember a guy they mentioned who is supposed to be top of the draft talent but might fall to the Astros (and probably past) due to signability. Does anybody know who they were talking about?
Didn't hear it, but i'd imagine it's Aaron Crow out of Missouri. He was the best college pitcher in the country the first half of the season and was being considered for the #1 overall spot. But poor performance down the stretch, mechanical concerns and rumored bonus demands (10million) has caused his stock to down a little. I've seen a lot of mocks the last few days that have him falling to 10. Smoak and Skipworth are probably the other prime possibilities to fall out of the top 9.
