Actually, this year's lack of a season includes more indicators towards global warming than last year's mega season. Gore was wrong to use Katrina as an example of what global warming does to weather. There is no scientific link between giant storms and global warming as of yet and not enough data to support it either way. Only the tiniest minority dismiss global warming. The issue isn't whether or not the earth is warming. It is. All scientific data indicates that is the case. The issue also isn't whether or not fossil fuel emissions have any impact on global warming. They do. That's basically undisputed. The debate lies with these questions: a. Is global warming a cyclical, natural process of the earth and its relationship to the sun? b. Do our emissions have an impact signicant enough to warrant massive changes to how we live to limit those emissions? Those are really where the argument points begin. The exisitence of weather phenomena like El Nino and La Nina are part of the evidence that global warming impacts weather. Sea surface temperatures (SST's) as a whole have risen over the past 20 years. Ocean water does have a lower saline content than 20 years ago. These are easily measurable things that also have a direct impact on weather. The problem I had with Gore's film was that he utilized a one-in-a-lifetime event (the 2005 hurricane season) to add weight to the unproven argument that one of the main examples of global warming is the existence of massiver hurricanes. His argument was completely flawed and, honestly, irrelevant to the debate at hand. In fact, I thought it made his argument weaker and I'm a supporter of global warming initiatives. I don't have a problem with the debate itself or the science. But, I do have an issue with using circumstantial data to try and hype a position that really doesn't need much hyping to begin with.
that's a gigantic leap. it's stuff like this...and the fact that 30 years ago they told us we were heading for an imminent ice age that make me doubt this stuff.
It's GLOBAL warming. Not Atlantic only warming. I know you guys weren't paying attention but we had one of the most powerful and longest lived hurricanes in the Central and Western Pacific this year. Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke had as much accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) as some entire seasons alone. It was quite a cyclone. Luckily it didn't hit anyone.
and..thus...it must have been caused by man-made temperature changes. this is the leap we're talking about...there are umpteen factors that come into play when we talk about hurricane development.
Hurricane Predictions Off Track As Tranquil Season Wafts Away http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBHKNBE0VE.html By NEIL JOHNSON The Tampa Tribune Published: Nov 27, 2006 It was not the hurricane season we expected, thank you. With cataclysmic predictions that hurricanes would swarm from the tropics like termites, no one thought 2006 would be the most tranquil season in a decade. Barring a last-second surprise from the tropics, the season will end Thursday with nine named storms, and only five of those hurricanes. This year is the first season since 1997 that only one storm nudged its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Still, Florida was hit by two tropical storms, Alberto and Ernesto. But after the pummeling of the previous two years, the storms barely registered on the public's radar. So what happened? Lots. Storms were starved for fuel after ingesting masses of dry Saharan dust and air over the Atlantic Ocean. Scientists say the storm-snuffing dust was more abundant than usual this year. In the season's peak, storms were curving right like errant field goals. High pressure that normally hunkers near Bermuda shifted far eastward, and five storms rode the clockwise winds away from Florida. Finally, a rapidly growing El Nino, a warming of water over the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifted winds high in the atmosphere southward. The winds left developing storms disheveled and unable to become organized. As they say about the stock market: Past results are no indication of future performance. This year's uneventful season provides no assurance that next year will be as calm: •The Atlantic remains in a 20- to 30-year cycle of high hurricane activity that started in 1995. Water temperatures are above normal. •El Nino probably won't be around to decapitate storms. •There's no promise that the Saharan dust will be as abundant. BY THE NUMBERS 9: The number of named storms this year 17: The number of named storms predicted May 31 by a team at Colorado State University led by Professor William Gray 45 mph: The wind speed when Tropical Storm Alberto hit the Florida Panhandle near Adams Beach on June 13, the strongest winds over Florida all season 56 percent: The average homeowner rate increase Citizens Property Insurance Corp. requested even after no hurricanes struck Florida 27 percent: The Citizens rate increase approved to start Jan. 1 $100 million: Estimated damage in the United States from Tropical Storm Ernesto 0: The number of storms that formed in October, the first time since 2002 that no storms formed that month. Also, no Category 4 or 5 storms formed this year for the first time since 1997.
Here's an article from today's Galveston Daily News: Link Experts weigh in on storm season that wasn't By Rick Cousins Correspondent Published November 27, 2006 Like a boxer reeling from body blows in the late rounds of his fight, Southeast Texans and their neighbors weathered the dual impacts of Katrina and Rita last year. So hurricane season 2006, which officially ends on Thursday, has felt like a walk in the park on a nice, cloudless, spring day. Global warming? Providential pity? The Daily News asked hurricane experts to explain whether this year’s relative peace and quiet was the result of global warming, sport utility vehicles, sun spots or something even more exotic. Jill F. Hasling, the president of the Weather Research Center in Houston pointed out that hurricane season 2006 was really quite average. “This season was one storm below average with 10 storms so far,” she said. “I think the large number of storms last year and some of the predictions for this year have misled people as to what is normal.” Hasling’s center uses sun spots to predict seasonal storms. This year, that model predicted a 40 percent chance of a Texas landfall by a tropical storm or hurricane versus the almanac approach, which suggests a constant 50-50 chance each year of a storm reaching the state. The center credits a persistent pressure system called the Bermuda High with turning many storms safely into the mid-Atlantic, away from the mainland. “Depending on where the Bermuda High is centered, the storms will turn because they have to go around it,” Hasling said. Hurricane specialist Lew Fincher, vice president of Friendswood’s Hurricane Consulting, agreed that the Bermuda High was at least partially responsible for our storm-free weather. “The Westerlies were blowing, causing shear, the air off the Sahara was dry, and the water temperatures were not record high (as in 2005),” Fincher said, summing up the technical reasons for the respite. “And the Bermuda High widened out, which also helped.” He pointed out that many years have gone by without a hurricane making landfall, so that our present season was not all that unusual. And that it is no guarantee for the future. “I’m still really worried about the development (taking place) on Galveston’s West and East ends,” he said. “Wave action from a storm can be almost like an earthquake in the damage it can cause.” Bill Read, the meteorologist-in-charge at the Houston-Galveston office of the National Weather Service, offered a cautionary reminder for anyone who felt that this quiet hurricane season offered any promise of future coastal safety. “Look at 1983 — a total of only four storms all year and only one made landfall, but that one was Alicia,” he said. “That’s my answer every time when I’m asked about it.”
There are many factors that dictate hurricane strength and frequency.... such as track and speed, shear, the natural cycle they seem to occur in. It may not be the case for every storm, but over a period of time, having hurricanes pass over warmer water is like hitting the nitrous button. Some storms might blow themselves apart, but I have no doubt we'll see a higher percentage of cat 4-5 storms as the Earth warms. I don't see how anyone can understand entropy and argue there are other, more likely, outcomes.
El Nino's pretty good to us in the upper Midwest as it means a milder winter plus plenty of good skiing out west. The huge storms and mudslides in coastal CA are a beyatch along with devestating drought in Australia and Indonesia.
Next year is going to be pretty dependent upon the length and strength of El Nino this winter. If it holds until February or even early March (most predictions have it running through February), it will likely have an impact on this season. The summers following a moderate to significant El Nino event (this year is considered moderate thus far) generally have fewer and less potent storms because it takes the waters of the Atlantic a lot longer to warm up and there are still fairly significant trade winds in the region. But, there's no guarantee. I say we just enjoy not being in the middle of hurricane season.
I am the first member of the RyanED fan club. Debut cards will be acceptable form of payment to join.
I know I've read articles from meterologists and hurricane experts who disagree with the contention that global warming leads to stronger hurricanes. There were tons of articles on that around the time Al Gore's movie came out.
