This is the way I like to think. Spoon/Moochie/Baker = get the hell out of here. I don't know if we could catch cheapo Donald Sterling napping, or if Les will want to take on long-term salary (i.e., three max contracts, as Phoenix will be facing soon), but Spoon + Mooch + Baker and future #1 picks for Elton Brand...? Maybe? Brand could be a talented Kelvin Cato. Not as tall, but he has those long arms, he blocks shots, he boards. He could be starting 4, backup 5 material. OK, I'll put down the crack pipe now. But Baron Davis for a bag of chips makes me hope too much for our own sake.
As valuable as Deke, Barry and Wesley are right now, I don't see any of them on the team after the 06-07 season. They will be 37, 37 and 42 by then. I don't see big name FAs coming. We will look for vet replacements for the above on the cheap via FA, seeing if some of our draft picks pan out, and look to add a 4 via trade or MLE. That is about it and that is just fine when you start a team with Yao and Tmac.
Ok - so the base line of the story is that we probably won't be major players in the free agent market in 2006/7 41 million for 4 players (assuming a 50mill cap) leaves 9 million - minus next years draft pick, plus (at least) the rights counting against the cap for 06/7 pick - each probably only around the 1-2 million mark - so we could have somewhere around 5 million to make a move.... or the MLE.... SO.... Would it be better to make a move to trade those expiring contracts for a decent starting player? Something akin to the Warriors/Davis deal (though a less injured, lower profile deal)? Take on a longer term contract for a guy/ guys who can be contributors?
The key number is the luxury tax threshold. Anyone has a prediction what that number would be around 06/07? Les probabaly would hate to pay the tax if the team is not championship-ready.
The key thing to remember is that this team with Tmac and Yao is just NOT going to be UNDER the salary cap to be big FA players. The VALUE of the Rockets upcoming "expiring contracts" (5 players totalling around 20M) will be not to get UNDER the cap, but to use as BAIT to another team looking to dump a GOOD high salary (and years) player for THEM to get under the cap for business reasons. The best example of this is what the Warriors did by sending their expiring contract of Dale Davis to the Hornets for their star player, Baron Davis. The Hornets get from under the Baron contract and now are FA players. The Warriors, were WAY over the cap but were able to parlay an expiring contract into a stud player. What the Warriors did is the TYPE of move we should be looking at. Who will be available like that when it comes time for us to make a move is anyone's guess. I mean look at the Hornets. Before the season NO ONE would have guessed they would have ended up like that. So it is tough to predict who might be available for us at the next trading deadline.
Two huge variables people seem to be glancing over. The new CBA this summer and the fact that most teams make significant changes over an 18 month period. Look at the Rockets from last summer to now. We've had like 10 roster changes. I would expect 5+ this summer. The only sure players to be on the roster for the 06/07 season are T-Mac & Yao, after that everyone is tradable. This entire thread is moot - just an educational piece.
Call it a crazy hunch but I look for Boston to be the next team that stumbles. Paul Pierce and Lafrentz for a stack of our expiring contracts and picks at next year's trade deadline. Maybe, Maybe no.
Don't get me wrong, Paul Pierce is a great player, but I wouldn't want him on the Rockets. All we need is the T-Mac and Yao 1-2 punch with a surrounding group of hard working, intelligent ROLE players. Pierce would do nothing but take away opportunities from the two and upset team chemistry. It'd be cool to have Pierce, but I don't think it would help the Rockets in the long run, for example, financially. If the Rockets do get another player above the level of solid role player, I would want that player to be a YOUNG power forward.
I agree about not wanting Pierce. The only star swingman I'd be interested is Artest. But he's a little nutty. Something else to consider is a draft-day trade where we swap an expiring contract with a bad contract to move up in the draft. I find Fran Vasquez and Johan Petro intriguing. I'm glad we kept on to our pick. You never know; we might be able to get a solid PF even at ~23.
Not that we are ever goin to get either of them, but personally, I would take Kirilenko. Kirilinko-Yao-Tmac = multiple championships.
Not that getting Pierce has much chance of happening (probably less than 1%). But under the tutelage and system of JVG, I could totally see PP and T-Mac becoming one of the strongest pair of defensive swingmen in NBA history. And I wouldn't be surprised if T-Mac and Yao and the rest of the team's unselfishness rubs off on PP. I mean he has a very good all around game, and doesn't necessarily need the ball in his hands to be effective. Course like I said, it probably won't happen.
Excellent thread here.....Reading through it Howard is constantly factored into the cap,but what kind of flexibility could trading JH potentially bring us?To me,he is quite average,yet has that big contract.I believe he's a good enough player to have some marketability when included in a deal w/picks and or players.I appreciate the chemistry concerns,but it is my belief that he is an easily replaceable part.If he's dealt would it not open up a deal for a real star(athletic PF perhaps) in addition to our role players?
Has anyone seen Pierce's contract? The guy is making 12.5 mill this year and gradually rises until his last year 2007/08 at 16 mill. That's maybe why it won't happen.
And it's one of the reasons it has a tiny percentage chance that it could happen. The Celtics MIGHT implode next season, and MIGHT want to rebuild by trading away Pierce/Lafrentz. And the Rockets have the expiring contracts. So if Les is willing to be bold with putting this team over the top. The Rox MIGHT be willing to do a deal. Like I said, it was a crazy hunch in the first place. Not really an idea worth fussing over too much.
I'm just excited we now have the flexibility to have threads like this. It will make for a fun offseason of speculation.
Very interesting thread. Basically, someone states we will have significant cap room in 2006 then NIKEstrad proves them wrong. Repeat several times. Looks like Yao better become worthy of that max contract or we might be in bad shape. I hate the Shaq/Kobe comparisons, but that's the one that comes to mind. I think T-Mac and Kobe are at the same level, but I think Yao has to step it up and I think he can.
So, the result of this thread: We will NOT have cap space (so quite talking about it or Nike will shut you down); AND We will have contracts expiring in 2006 that we can use as bait to make a deal happen. Possbile trade scenarios are: 14.46 mil (moochie+Spoon+Baker) for any decent combination of players with matching contracts that can actually contribute. OR Juwan and/or draft picks + part of 14.46 (moochie/spoon/baker) for a real player (ie Brand/Pierce/AndreMiller/etc.). I LOV IT - THAT IS WHY TRADING MO IS A GREAT MOVE
The player that I would have my eye on in the offseason is Troy Murphy. He would an absolute perfect fit at the 4. Shoots 43% from 3-point land and averages 11.4 rebounds a game. A tough, blue collar type of power forward that can spread the defense with his outside shooting. Exactly the type of player the Rockets need. Depending on who the Warriors draft, I think Murphy could be on the market for expiring contracts. With Baron Davis and Jason Richardson's max contracts and the outrageous money the Warriors have tied up in Fisher and Foyle, the Warriors have to be looking to unload some salary.
New Jack, your comments are right on line! Totally agree with your assesments with Golden State. For us to find a gem out there with our Expiring Contracts we are just going to have to hope there is some team next year with high expectations, high payroll and then starts to implode the way the Hornets did. Or find a team in a small market that has to justify their costs like a team like Milwaukee. We might not be able to indentify those teams and players until next year. A team like Golden State, as mentioned above, is in a situation where they have a MAX player in Richardson and a MAX player in Baron Davis. They CANT afford 3 max contracts. What happens when Dunleavy and Pietrus contract situations come up? And as mentioned above they still have Fisher, Foyle and Murphy on the books. Something is going to have to give there. That's just way too much salary for a team that isnt even in the playoffs yet! If you like Murphy, we could probably give them expiring contracts that would help them ease their financial burden allowing them to lop Murphy off the books and sign Dunleavy etc. Murphy might be a real nice sidekick to Yao. He is not as quick and athletic as I would want at the PF spot though and doesnt bring much in the way of weakside shot blocking which is something I think this team really lacks. But his shooting and rebounding is pretty good. What is Murphy's contract look like BTW? Anyone know? dollars and years?
