Harden often either hurries the first shot or its a pull up 3 which he's not good at and the second shot is also often hurried since its only a few seconds for the execution. Perhaps its better to settle for 1 good shot. Discuss.
Harden is a league average shooter shooting contested 3's. Meaning we are just throwing up a league average shot to guarantee an extra possession. It's 100% the right move.
Funny you mention it. I've noticed it in the past 2-3 games in a row. I understand the theory behind the 2-for-1 chance, but 99% of the time we have Harden jack up a contested brick just so we can trot down and get another chance. Might as well try something different there, when occasion allows.
Sometimes he doesn't execute the 2 for 1 as nicely as you would like, but I'm pretty sure Morey layed out the numbers a few years back that it's simply better to get 2 attempts, even if they aren't as high percentage of shots, then getting 1 higher percentage shot.
It's not we shouldn't take 2 for 1, I just don't like pull up a contested 3 and then only to have a few seconds work with in the last shot. I don't like 2 bad shots for one good shot (to the opponent). That said, I am Okay with setting it up taking a quick shot at 32-35 second mark and left with 7-10 seconds for the last shot.
I don't know about league average shooting contested. I have noticed more often than not Harden bricks the first one at 32 mark and then walk it up to look for a foul at the dying seconds. We typically ended up with not moving the score board in the last 40 seconds or so.
Not only that, but a team always likes to end the quarter or half with the last possession. Sometimes, it demoralizes players when the other team hits a last second layup or 3-pters at the buzzer giving them momentum for the next quarter.
Why does shooting a "bad" shot get the opponent a good shot? It's literally what the numbers say. Harden shooting a contest 3 is a league-average shot (granted, I remember this number from earlier in the season, don't know if it's still the case). It's almost always better to have two "bad" shots than one "good" shot. Especially if the play of choice is a league average play like a Harden pull up 3.
league average is 35 % Harden is a 33% pull up three shooter. Browser not letting me run the stats for the last 10 games, but ill guarantee you it's less at the end of quarters. Morey will never ditch the 2 for 1, but OP is right, He has not been good in these situations lately. If he keeps building houses with pull ups, the rockets are toast. Harden's long pull ups often lead to opponents getting good shots b/c of the long rebounds starting the break, but let's face it, opponents get good shots on the rockets regardless.
Right, in the same way that you're more likely to score when Corey Brewer shoots than no shot at all. But you still take a better shot when it's available.
Well no one is saying to forgo good shots if available. Thing isrunning a play or set for 1 shot instead of 2 doesn't guarantee you a better shot. And to the poster questioning Hardens shooting on contested shots(defender 0-2 feet away) on the season he is 47% with a 50% eFG.
Exactly. Expected return on 2 3 point shots that have 30% chance of goin in? 1.8 points Expected return on 1 3 point that has a 50% chance of going in? 1.5 points
I mean obviously that would be nice but the reality is that the circumstances surrounding the usual 2-for-1 situation (not a lot of time) makes it hard to really set up a play. Throwing up a garbage shot is still the correct mathematical move.
They are forced to take time to run plays and typically they end up having a good shot. By good shot, I mean shot in the flow of play. Harden can walk up shoot a contested three any time he wants. Even if he is shooting league average with the contested J, which I highly doubt, do you say he should take that shot each and every play or most of the plays? Harden is a streaky shooter. I don't like him taking that shot. There are other shots we can take. Run a play, if we get it, we get it, if not, make sure we take a good shot and let the clock run. The priority is good shot then 2 for 1, not the other way around, IMHO.
No you should always go for 2-for-1 to guarantee the last shot, no matter how bad the shot ends up being. The priority should be 1. Good shot as 2-for-1 (hard to do given lack of time), 2. Bad shot for 2-for-1,, 3. If you somehow miss the window for 2-for-1, get the best shot.
I don't recall I have seen the Spurs hurrying to take a 2 for 1 in recent seasons. I notice they tend to run a play trying to take a shot at 32 mark, but if no one is open, they will reset and make sure they take a good shot.
I'm guessing you guys realize your fallacy here and just like to debate. This is classic shifting the goal posts. In no way did I advocate taking one shot instead of two. I advocated taking the best available shot both times.
