Hey everyone, long time lurker first time poster. I write for an NBA content website called OTG basketball, and I recently issued a piece on why Melo will help the Rockets. I can't post links on here yet, so I've pasted the content below. If you like it, check me out at @jonle1986 on Twitter for links to my other articles. -------------------- I think I can speak for most Rockets fans when I say that I’m…. uneasy about signing Melo. I’ve never been a huge fan of his and he clearly comes with risk on defense, attitude, and overall fit with the team. However, I did some research and the numbers show that the potential benefits outweigh these risks. Now that we are in the midst of NBA purgatory (no NBA for months), I have joined most of America in binging my nights away with Netflix. As a nod to 13 Reasons Why, a popular Netflix Original series, this article outlines 13 reasons why Melo will help the Rockets. Side note: as an Asian American male, it was pretty cool to see an Asian dude play the role of a high school jock in 13 Reasons Why. However, it was NOT cool to watch him hoop in season 1 – he was super uncoordinated, and it made me cringe. 1) The Rockets will save an estimated $62 million in salary and luxury tax The Rockets had a huge decision to make this summer regarding Trevor Ariza. He was a key part of the Rockets’ run last season that came within inches of making the Finals. However, matching Phoenix’s $15 million offer came with severe luxury tax implications. Signing Melo for the minimum is a far cheaper option, as seen in the tables below. 2) Melo’s defense isn’t THAT bad Everyone’s initial reaction is to say that Melo’s defense is a huge liability. Surprisingly, last year his defensive rating of 105.6 was almost on par with Ariza’s rating of 104.3 (defensive rating is defined as points given up per 100 individual possessions). Melo’s defense was actually better in certain situations, as the table below suggests. Don’t get me wrong. I still remember when the Rockets hilariously isolated against him time and time again (“Where the F#$@ was the help?!”). I’m just saying his defense isn’t as bad as we all thought. 3) Melo’s offense is an upgrade Melo’s strengths are obviously in his offensive game, so its no surprise that he’s an upgrade over Ariza. While spot up situations were about even, Melo was far superior in isolation and post-up attempts. Isolation is of course key to the Rockets offense, and his post-up game can add a diversifying element. 4) Melo greatly outperformed Ariza versus the Warriors This is perhaps the most important comparison between the two players - Melo played much, much better against the Warriors. The decision to sign Melo will be judged on this very item, did it give the Rockets a better chance to beat the Warriors in the Playoffs? 5) Melo should benefit from the D’Antoni/Rockets system Almost every Rockets player that was on the roster saw a vast improvement once Coach D’Antoni was hired. Yes, Melo and D’Antoni didn’t have a great track record together in New York, but this is obviously a much better Rockets team where he will be the third option. 6) Melo is a relatively healthy player In the last three seasons, Melo played in 72, 74, and 78 games. The Rockets dealt with numerous injuries last year, namely Chris Paul’s hamstring in the Western Conference Finals. Melo’s durability will be a welcomed addition, especially in the Playoffs. 7) Melo is an honorary Banana Boat member Photo Courtesy: SBNation Melo wasn’t in the original banana boat picture, but he was added to the next trip alongside Wade, LeBron, and Paul (hence the Snapchat filter above). As both a friend and court general, Paul should be able to bring out the best in Melo and help him adjust to what’s needed to win. 8) Harden is also a fan 9) Melo is motivated to win and prove he’s still relevant Given his rapid decent from grace, Melo will be motivated this year to play his best. He’ll need to show that he still has something left in the tank to another lucrative contract. 10) Rockets are getting him on a fire sale discount It was just last year that the Rockets were in the hunt to trade for Melo and his enormous contract (at the time, 2 years and $54 million remaining). The Rockets will now sign him for a fraction of that at the veteran’s minimum of $1.5 million (technically its $2.4 million but only $1.5 million will hit the cap). 11) His size can provide defensive flexibility Melo’s 6’8, 240 pound frame would make him one of the bigger rotation players. Although he will start at small forward, the Rockets can move him to the power forward spot and slide PJ Tucker to center to go small. This group may help at times against the Warriors’ Death/Hamptons Five lineup. 12) Melo is a future Hall of Famer Daryl Morey places a premium emphasis on star power and Melo certainly has the credentials: 25,000+ career points, six All-NBA teams, 10-time All-Star, 2012-2013 scoring title, three Olympic gold medals, and an NCAA championship. 13) Melo is a gamble with a huge payoff The gap between the Warriors and the Rockets has only grown larger this offseason. The Warriors’ odds of winning the title are nearly 1 to 2, and the Rockets’ odds are 8 to 1. Simply put, the current Rockets roster likely will not beat the Warriors. Yes, this could turn out to be a huge mistake. But it could also end up as a stroke of genius. If Melo can return to form, he could be the final piece the Rockets need to overcome the Warriors. With nothing to lose, the decision to sign Melo is pretty clear.
Pretty epic first post. You're cashing in at a good time. I don't agree with your point #4; using ORTG and DRTG in player comparisons usually causes more problems than it solves. Why is Kyrie Irving in that banana boat pic? (rimshot) And thanks for furthering the proof that everyone on Clutchfans is Asian.
Why would you use a thread title referencing a movie about suicide to explain why Carmelo will be successful with the Rockets? I originally thought this was going to be about why Carmelo would cause the team to implode.
Does anyone know if there is a defensive stat like this that accounts for the offensive ability of the opponent? For example, if Ariza is typically matched up against KD while Melo is typically matched up against Iggy, then I'd expect Melo to have a better rating here. But I wouldn't use that rating to brag on Melo's defense if I knew the context. @heypartner maybe?
You mean, DRtg adjusted in a role-assignment manner to opponent's normal ORtg? I don't know, because I don't trust any individual, defensive stats. I mean, using an assignment technique, how do you even score a PnR. The player got picked, and he might have a terrible roll-defender playing with him. The other player might be playing with Gobert as his roll-player defender. More importantly to your question is the DRtg numbers are effected by the team's overall DRtg. Look at it this way, if a coach never substitutes, all players will have the same DRtg, and it will equal the Team DRtg. Anyone who uses Melo's individual DRtg that is boosted by OKC's Overall DRtg to say Melo is just as good as a defender as Ariza is the WHOLE reason I think these stats do more harm than good. It's a mistake to compare individual DRtg's across teams. I just don't put *any* stock in comparing across teams.
A note you might want to add. For 2), remember Ariza was usually guarding the other teams best player. Probably not the case for Melo. Observation.
I’m sorry but you have to be stupid to think Melo at the minimum is not a prudent move. People seem to have forgotten that GSW had their own injury issues with Iggy and a coming off a knee sprain Curry last playoffs. A fully healthy rockets 17-18 team wasn’t better than a fully healthy GSW 17-18 team. I loved our mini #grit&grind team but that team wasn’t enough.
curry was just fine when he started the playoffs. please don't tell me you believe the media garbage he was "injured" And the rox beat GS by 20+ with iggy. its not impossible to say a fully healthy rockets team isn't better. at the very least they were just as good with a realistic shot at winning
He wasn’t 100% when he came back in the second round. Yea because he was injured and shouldn’t have come back. We weren’t at least as good as the GSW last year, that’s just not right.
Yeah, something like that. It wouldn't have to be O/Drtg though. Just whatever might work. A Google search revealed to me the NBA has Points Per Touch*. Maybe look at KD's Points Per Touch overall vs his PPT against Ariza? Not saying that would be the way to do it, just throwing something out there. (BTW, EGo is #1 in the league in PPT with a minimum of 50 games played. Hooray for EGo!) For sure. Playing perimeter D with Gobert as your rim protector is not the same as playing perimeter D with Al Jefferson as your rim protector. That, and team defensive scheme, makes comparing individual defensive statistics across teams hard (if not impossible). Anyway, I was just wondering if such a stat existed, since the most widely used individual defensive statistics are so obviously flawed. *Disclaimer: I don't even know how this is calculated; I just hope it doesn't involve ORtg.
Can’t read all right now(at work) but did read the first couple and good work! Will the the rest later my man
why wasn't he? did he miss any games from that point? nope. were his minutes restricted? nope. He came in and destroyed the pelicans immediately. then he plays hou who is on another level, and all of a sudden these gimmick excuses of him being injured rise from the media. he goes off in game 3 and all of a sudden hes just fine. So yeah him being not 100% is just a lame scapegoat excuse for just playing bad and not giving credit to a rockets defense that was proven to be in the elite category. And as far as iggy goes, he got injured in game 3 where he was perfectly fine before that point. So no, he was not injured at the time of game 2 when they got beat by 20+ and that was a fully healthy GS team the rockets faced in that game Hou was still just as good as GS when fully healthy.
Great posts. All these people crying over Ariza and Luc remind me of the people who use to drool over Omer Asik and Ryan Anderson.
Ariza is guarding stars/the opponents best perimeter player on many nights...Melo isn’t Melo’s defense is a liability...he was unplayable against the Jazz OKC’s defense improved by over 10 points/100 possessions once Melo hit the bench in the playoffs because he was out there constantly blowing coverages and getting blown by
