Losing didn't beget losing for the Spurs after their tank season when they got Duncan. I don't believe this losing begets losing crap. Teams play up to their talent level, in general. We have had injuries this season, it screwed us over. But assuming we can stay relatively healthy next season, we will be back around what we did last year when we won 45 games. I say give plenty of minutes to Oscar Torres, Terrence Morris, Jason Collier, Moochie Norris, Eddie Griffin and Dan Langhi. We might as well find out what they can all do with considerable minutes (I guess we already know what Moochie can do). Plus, it would cut down on the minutes of Cat and Steve, who are beat up and hurting as it is. I don't think it is wrong to be glad that your team loses when we do these things. We kill two birds with one stone. We get our young role players plenty of minutes, and we get more balls.
<I>Waaaah</I>. These threads pop up during about a one-month span out of the year, but if opinions different from your own intimidate you, then HangoutBoy <B>really</B> needs to run back to where he's comfortable. In 2001. In 1995 it was Kevin Garnett and Damon Stoudamire. In 1996 it was Ray Allen and Lorenzen Wright. In 1998 it was Vince Carter and Jason Williams. Ouch. Draft depth always varies, but the difference between a 5th pick and 7th pick is as simple as this: Having the option to pick from two more top prospects that could be much better or fit your team much better.
You're right Clutch. I'm very intimidated by people who want their team to lose games instead of actually learning how to win. Maybe you should pick up a dictionary and read the definitions for intimidated and annoyed. Compare and contrast. Have fun. I'm sorry if I feel that this team has the talent, just not the experience, to be a force in the West for years to come. I'll be just as happy with a 7th pick instead of a 5th pick because I think that once this team gets used to winning and playing well together, a 7th pick will be all we need, if that. Intimidated, you crack me up <I>sometimes</I> Clutch. In fact, the way you keep referring to me not so endearingly as "Hangout Boy" leads me to believe that you may be intimidated by the Hangout forum.
Will you still hope for the 7th pick instead of the 5th pick once we are officially eliminated from the playoffs? Should they get used to winning just in time to take the summer off? Getting used to winning and establishing continuity is fine...if you are headed into the all star break. But with the way professional sports are these days and players not knowing whihc time zone they will be playing in let alone who they will be on the floor with, continuity going into the offseason is something I'd rather not have to root for each year.
So you've got one example where going to the lottery was beneficial? How many examples do you think there are on the other side? How many consecutive years were New Jersey and Boston in the lottery? Gee, maybe if we go to the lottery 10 more years in a row, we'll win our division one day! Let's look at the teams in the NBA with the 10 worst records for the past 3 years: 2001: 1. Chicago 15-67 2. Golden State 17-65 3. Washington 19-63 4. Vancouver 23-59 5. Atlanta 25-57 6. New Jersey 26-56 7. Cleveland 30-52 8. LA Clippers 31-51 9. Detroit 32-50 10. Boston 36-46 2000: 1. LA Clippers 15-67 2. Chicago 17-65 3. Golden State 19-63 4. Vancouver 22-60 5. Atlanta 28-54 6. Washington 29-53 7. New Jersey 31-51 8. Cleveland 32-50 9. Houston 34-48 10. Denver 35-47 10. Boston 35-47 1999: 1. Vancouver 8-42 2. LA Clippers 9-41 3. Chicago 13-37 4. Denver 14-36 5. New Jersey 16-34 6. Washington 18-32 7. Dallas 19-31 7. Boston 19-31 9. Golden State 21-29 10. Cleveland 22-28 8 teams made the list all 3 times! Still think losing doesn't beget losing?
the problem is you in no way prove any sort of causality. All you've shown is that this random correlation does exist. By the same token, I could show how a lot of teams start losing after they've had a number of winning seasons. Boston, Detroit, Chicago, Houston all won championships in the pat decade or two yet have also all been in the lottery for three years in a row (if we count this year for the rockets) or more. Can I conclude that winning begets losing (sounds wierd, doesn't it). No, I can't. All the losing begets losing correlation points out, at this point, is that a team that is bad one year genearlly tends to still be bad the next year. All in all, that really isn't too shocking a result. But it does nothing to show why - what caused it, causality.
While I agree 100%, there is a distinction. Being bad multiple years in a row is not suprising because teams with few skilled or talented players generally do worse than those with multipe skilled, talented expereince players. It's based off the skill level on your team and not off how you finished the lotto race the year before. Thus, if we believe this Rockets team does have the necessary TALENT, when healthy, to be good, then maybe there is no reason to not want them to tank. There is nothing there that says a team that tanks will continue to lose the next year because losing begets losing. In fact, the San Antonio "anamoly" may show that a skilled team, as some may think this Rockets team is, may be better off tanking
But the draft is designed to give the bad teams more skilled players. These teams are presumably adding the most skilled players available in the draft to their teams every year, yet they're always right back where they started the next year. The wish of a tanker is to get a high draft pick, get a good player, and be good again. The fact is that rarely happens. If being in the lottery was such a great thing, there wouldn't be so much recidivism among lottery teams. Do you realize that this is the third year in a row that 'fans' have wanted the Rockets to "tank and get that final piece to the puzzle"? Must be a pretty big puzzle.
BOTTOM LINE: A higher pick gives you a shot at a better player (or at least a player that is perceived by most teams to be better...obviously there are exceptions) A higher pick is undoubtedly worth more in a trade (5 is worth more than 6...obvious) Conclusion...I'd rather have a better draft position given that it is a FACT that we are missing this uyears playoffs.
Did you just skip over last year. I dont remember anybody thinking tank last year, at least not until the very very end. Anyway, I'm not promoting the tank attitude. I don't like it and am on record as such in past threads. I was just pointing out the fact that you're stats fail to point to any casuality at this point. They just highlight a correlation that exists. Can I answer your questions, then? Not really. If I guessed I'd have to say because a) it takes a lot of pieces of the puzzle to do well in this league, b) even with those pieces in place the must click (like they now have in New Jersey, c)skill and experience are two different things - why, for example does Memphis suck so bad despite the fact that they have the ROY in addition to another top, highly skilled ROY candidate on their team, and d) other factors are involved, such as coaching, management, etc. So while I don't like the tankers attitude, I can see how someone might turn that way given our season. If they believe we have a large portion of the skill (just a lot fo its been injured), that the team is developing good chemistry together (learning to click) and that the coaching / mgmt is all we can currently ask for, then, why not tank to get a more skilled player in the draft. If the only thing holding us back is injuries, then go ahead and tank and hope everyone will be healthy next year. I personally feel like the team stills needs a veteran player who gets significant minutes and still has a lot of work to do before they can gel on the court, despite their talent. It is why I don't like the tanking attitude.
Looks like a nerve was struck since you went in to your typical you're-an-idiot routine. I don't see the word "annoyed" anywhere in your post. Clearly Republican viewpoints that annoy you don't keep you from posting in the Hangout, so I don't understand why being "annoyed" from a few seasonal posts keeps you from posting here. I said "intimidated" .... guess it was the wrong word. Good for you. But some people either feel differently or feel the same way, but still want to take advantage of a bad season by maximizing the return. You keep posting those people "suck". Actually, part of your stance was to show that there was little to no difference in the 5th or 7th pick in comparing Jason Richardson to Eddie Griffin. In fact you stated clearly that <I>was</I> the difference. I highlighted three clear examples where my team would include Ray Allen, Vince Carter and Kevin Garnett while yours would run Jason Williams, Lorenzen Wright and Damon Stoudamire. I honestly didn't expect to see a response to that because there isn't one. There are exceptions in every draft and depth varies in every draft. Kobe Bryant was #13 and I'm not saying the 7th pick is bad... but the 5th pick is just better. Can't make it any more obvious than the fact that you could trade <I>down</I> to 7 if you wanted and <I>get something else</I> as well. The logic is flawed, and the statements in red are just exaggeration. And yes, building a championship team can be a pretty big puzzle (you never struck me as one who thought otherwise). A lottery pick isn't necessarily the magic ticket to winning for the <i>next year</i>. I don't see many GMs coming in to their positions saying "We're on a one-year rebuilding plan". Usually it's 5, and it takes time. Especially now with players coming out that are much younger and less experienced... many lottery picks have little impact in their first year. Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O'Neal, Wally Szczerbiak and Tracy McGrady are a few examples of players that took a few years to see explosive growth in their games. A top pick sometimes can have that impact right away, but even that is rare. What I do know is that a draft pick is an asset, and the higher the pick, the bigger the asset it is. Elton Brand was had for the 2nd pick last year and Shareef Abdur-Rahim the 3rd. If the Rockets could get that kind of young, impact player from their pick, who has already gone through the first couple of "learning" seasons, the impact on next year and our future would be huge compared to any effect you think extra losses could have in the final games. If you got a pick in the top 3, could you get Lamar Odom? What about if the pick is #8? Don't know. I want as valuable a pick as possible though. What <a href="http://bbs.clutchcity.net/showthread.php?threadid=29958">I have said</a>, since it became crystal clear that the team was not going to make the playoffs, is this team is injured and way out of the playoff race. They should take advantage by using the final games as an extended training camp to develop players like Griffin, Morris, Torres, Langhi and Collier rather than running Francis and Cuttino at near 48 minutes a night in a win-at-all-costs measure. I have never said the team should intentionally miss shots, or not try to win with the players that are out there -- which is what the label "tankers" implies. With or without the draft pick, I think we'll be a better team next season... but why are we turning down the chance to add a valuable asset as a gift from this hellish season? Maximize it, in my opinion. I think where we disagree is you think more losses has a significant negative impact on the team <i>next</i> season. I just don't think that is going to impede the progress of our team when healthy nor keep our players from improving in the offseason nor reduce the impact of Taylor and Rice returning when healthy. Overall though, I don't understand your stance too much, TheFreak. All along you have blasted anyone who has expected anything good out of this team. Now some fans are hoping the team is highly compensated for the losing season, and you don't seem to like that because it requires the team to keep doing what you have said it should be doing with this talent level all along.
We are farther ahead in our rebuilding process than the other 2 championship teams of the 90's, Chicago and Detroit. And, yes we still are another piece or two away from the puzzle being complete... and yes, we need more experience. So, it seems the Rockets are walking this fine line path of having their players go hard all game long, making it close and entertaining for the fans, but giving various players playing time and experience, developing plays in game time, building tradable players value, and developing chemistry and confidence. I think they are doing a pretty good job. But, I also don't think playing to win now will be a difference between 5 to 7th in the picking order, it could be between 5th and 12th, and THAT would be bad. In 2000, the draft seemed to be 7 deep, and we picked at 9, and smartly traded out of that draft for help in moving up last year, last years draft was about 8 deep, and we were able to trade up to the #7, getting Griffin, and this year's seems to be 5-7 deep. That could be the difference between getting Dajuan Wagner and Chris Wilcox ... (maybe Stoudamire as a long term project) ... quite a drop, but if we go to like 12th, thats someone like Caron Butler ... who? (the UConn guy...) I'm still wondering how we could get Kwame Brown... AND still get Marcus. Was that when we still thought we could get Toronto's pick? <b>Clutch</b>, did whoever mentioned that to you, tell you how the deal might get done? You probably can't say anything about that until after the season, I know, since the players read this board sometimes... but we're all still curious...
sorry, Clutch... we were posting at the same time... didn't see your post... good points. well said ... way better than I did!
I wish I had that much sensitivity to the players Actually I don't know.... Kwame Brown doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but that was really the word. But in mid-March? Strange. Also, regarding Chris Marcus, I just know one Rockets official (I can't tell you who he is, but his initials are CD ) likes him. I don't know if they'd actually take him or if they'll trade that pick...
Clutch has said it best. The "tankers" aren't looking for Rudy to intentionally lose. We want Rudy to give the rookies and youngsters more looks, better looks. We want Rudy to perhaps try new things for the offense for next year. Our starting backcourt members are both in the top 10 in MPG. When we're well out of the playoff hunt, why not give them a rest? Why not treat the rest of the season almost like a preseason-a time to see what your players can give you, and if you win games in the process, great. If not, oh well, not a big deal. I think Chris Marcus' ceiling/skills is similar to Kandi right now. He's a big body who can block some shots, rebound, and has scoring potential. I think Kandi has the ability to improve even more, and doesn't have nearly as many injury issues.
nbadraft.net said Big Country, and I don't think that's too far off. Marcus is slow and foul-proned. The only thing he has going for him is his Shaqesque size (And a couple nice post moves).
