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0-3 and on the edge of a steep cliff

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by basketballholic, Nov 1, 2015.

  1. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Project 538 predictions haven't even adjusted for strength of shedule. Their total win totals SURPASSES the number possible. It quite simply SUCKS and is uselless and stupid.

    Like most of that site.
     
  2. basketballholic

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    They're total wins add up to 1230. Divide by 82 and that's 15. Seems like the correct number to me.
     
  3. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Oh they changed them in the last 5 days? LMAO

    https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/3qapl8/unless_538com_predicts_the_golden_state_warriors/

    This shows how badly written and researched this site is. "These win projections are meant to reflect the underlying talent of the team, not how the season will play out"
    Then wtf is a projection for?:rolleyes:
     
  4. Cashmoney

    Cashmoney Member

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    I think this is a pretty fair summary. Good thread mate
     
  5. fallenphoenix

    fallenphoenix Contributing Member

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    Exactly, people are acting like the future is already written if we lose tonight.


    Fools.

    It's a neat stat, but doesn't tell you anything.
     
  6. Camarograna2

    Camarograna2 Contributing Member

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    Told you guys it was my flag. My bad. I've bought 3 extra mounting rings so we should be good this season.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    Honestly with this start I would take 5th.
     
  8. basketballholic

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    QUICK UPDATE: 8 games in


    Of the 72 teams that have made it to the Finals in the 3-point era (1979-80):


    Only 9 (12.5%) of them made it to the Finals with having a .500 or worse record through their first 8 games. They are:

    2005 Pistons (Billups/Wallace Bros.)
    1999 Spurs (Duncan/DRob)
    1998 Bulls (Jordan/Pippen)
    1998 Jazz (Stockton/Malone)
    1991 Bulls (Jordan/Pippen)
    1991 Lakers (Magic/Worthy/Vlade)
    1985 Lakers (Magic/Kareem)
    1982 Lakers (Magic/Kareem)
    1981 Rockets (Malone)


    Only 5 (6.94%) of them went on to win a championship with having a .500 or worse record through their first 8 games. They are:

    1999 Spurs (Duncan/DRob) started 4-4, went to 4-5, then to 5-6, then to 6-8, before breaking out to a 9-game winning streak, closing at 31-5 to finish the strike-shortened 50-game season at 37-13 and winning the championship.

    1998 Bulls (Jordan/Pippen) started 4-4, won championship against Jazz (Stockton/Malone).

    1991 Bulls (Jordan/Pippen) started 4-4, won first championship with Jordan against an old Magic Lakers team.

    1985 Lakers (Magic/Kareem) started 3-5 and went on to beat Boston for the championship.

    1982 Lakers (Magic/Kareem) started 4-4 and went on to defeat Philly in the Finals. This was the team that started out with Paul Westhead as head coach clashing with Magic who basically got him fired in favor or Riley.
     
  9. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I found it interesting that of the teams you have under category #1, Holic, two of those teams met the Rockets in the Finals. Carry on. :)-
     
  10. basketballholic

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    QUICK UPDATE: 10 games in


    Of the 72 teams that have made it to the Finals in the 3-point era (1980-current):


    Only 8 (11.1%) of them made it to the Finals with having a .500 or worse record through their first 10 games. They are:

    2015 Cavs (Lebron/Love/Kyrie started 5-5)
    2005 Pistons (Billups & Wallace's started 5-5 with Big Ben missing 4 of the first 10 games and 8 of the first 15 games)
    1999 Spurs (Duncan/DRob started 5-5 in strike-shortened 50-game season that started in February)
    1998 Jazz (Stockton/Malone started 5-5 with Stockton missing first 18 games of season with injury)
    1991 Bulls (Jordan/Pippen/Grant started 5-5)
    1991 Lakers (Magic/Worthy/Vlade started 5-5)
    1985 Lakers (Magic/Kareem started 5-5)
    1981 Rockets (Malone&Co. started 4-6 and made it to Finals, but this was when there was a first round bye and the lower seeded teams played a 3-game mini-series in the first round, Rockets seeded 6th, beat the Lakers seeded 3rd 2-1. This would not happen today. That series would be a 7-game series today.)


    Only 3 (4.17%) of them went on to win a championship with having a .500 or worse record through their first 8 games. They are:

    1999 Spurs (Duncan/DRob) started 4-4, went to 4-5, then 5-5, then to 5-6, then to 6-8, before breaking out to a 9-game winning streak, closing at 31-5 to finish the strike-shortened 50-game season at 37-13 and winning the championship.

    1991 Bulls (Jordan/Pippen) started 5-5, won first championship with Jordan against an old Magic Lakers team.

    1985 Lakers (Magic/Kareem) started 5-5 and went on to beat Boston for the championship.


    NO TEAM has started the season with a losing record through their first 10 games and won a championship in the 3-point era.

    Since the playoff format changed in 2003 to 7-game series throughout all rounds, only 2 teams (7.7%), the 2015 Cavs and the 2005 Pistons have even made it to the Finals with a .500 record after 10 games...and both teams lost. Although I do think the Cavs would've won the championship last season if Love and Kyrie weren't both out.


    It's starting to get bleak folks.


    It should be increasingly obvious to all of us that at least one of these things has to happen for us to possibly win a championship this season:

    1. DMo has to come back and be the 2nd or at worst 3rd best player on this team. And he needs to come back relatively soon.

    2. A significant trade for a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd best player must occur while still having Harden and Howard on the roster. Neither Ty Lawson nor Trevor Ariza, nor any other player on this current active roster is good enough to be the 3rd player on a championship team. DMo is the only player on our roster that has a chance to be this guy and he's out.

    3. A coaching change. Either the head coach has to change, or we have to bring in a defensive coach that changes our defensive strategy to a winning one.

    4. Barring any of the first three taking place, an unprecedented miraculous turnaround will have to take place of the sort not seen before. (Don't count on this happening without at least one of the first three occurring.)
     
    #90 basketballholic, Nov 16, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2015
  11. basketballholic

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    Next 2 stops at 15 games and 20 games respectively.


    We basically need to go 4-1 over the next 5 and 8-2 over the next 10 games to put ourselves back to any significant statistical chance of making the Finals.


    If we roll over belly up tonight we're in even deeper trouble. If this team wins tonight, it doesn't mean we're out of the woods. But it could be a start of something.
     
  12. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    <BR>
    NOTE: The above scintillating analysis is brought to you by a man who's very signature states that Danny Granger, a free agent, is an "immediate value trade target."
     
    1 person likes this.
  13. swyyyguy

    swyyyguy Member

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    Reminder: The 2014 Cavs were 5-7 after 12 games and went on to the finals. R-E-L-A-X.

    Just kidding, Harden isn't LeBron. We're fked.
     
  14. basketballholic

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    Haven't updated my signature since the start of training camp. Will get around to it eventually. Not a priority at this time.
     
  15. ibm

    ibm Member

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    for all the cf's out there who are under the age of 30,,, go for boxing!

    if george foreman could do it well into his 40's, there is no reason for you guys to get into boxing now. there's plenty of time...
     
  16. Codman

    Codman Contributing Member

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    As talented as DMo is, he's not going to "save" the season. Even when he returns to the court, he'll need a significant amount of time to adjust.

    That's where people minimize what Dwight brings to the team. Even with injuries, or shortly after, he's one of the few guys that can come back and contribute on both ends of the court. Very few players can do that under the same time table.
     
  17. basketballholic

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    Pretty much agree with that. Can't see DMo coming back and being good enough as the 3rd best player on both ends. But I think he'll help. Still need that definitive top-3 guy to add to Harden/Howard or we're not going to make the Finals out of the West.

    I think we need to face facts here. The Warriors are 11-0. They're already the favorites to come out of the West. If they win a couple more games they're the prohibitive favorites and we have to understand we're simply not as good as they are and won't be able to beat them as currently constructed. And I'm not even mentioning the Spurs. Thunder, or Clippers yet. Realistically, we have virtually no chance to win the West as currently constructed.
     
    #97 basketballholic, Nov 16, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2015
  18. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    You're right - except he's already contributing about as much as he can be expected to do and the wheels have fallen off this bus.

    Everyone else needs to get their head in the game, from McHale on down.
     
  19. basketballholic

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    Well, there you go. We rolled over again. You can stop with the stupid "It's early" bologna.


    this
    team
    is
    in
    trouble

    It has the wrong personnel.
     
  20. basketballholic

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    So the first shoe has dropped and there's been a coaching change. But in the process of all that other things have come into the light, namely one of the things that has been going on with this team going back to last year. We've got chemistry problems between our two best players.

    My prediction:

    Without significant personnel changes to the primary rotation pieces around H2H this team is going to meander around .500 all the way to the trade deadline. They'll win a few games in a row and the board here will go crazy. Then they'll lose a few in a row and the board will go crazy again.

    This current mix of players is not good enough to make a push to the top 4 of the West which is where we need to be to have any rational chance of winning a championship. And if either Harden or Howard goes down for any significant time we'll be out of the playoff chase altogether.
     
    #100 basketballholic, Nov 19, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2015

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