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I had to get up and check the reports this morning. It seems like the consensus is becoming much more tightly clustered for really the first time...
That's possible. There have only been a handful of cat 4 and 5 storms to come on shore in Texas. I think Beulah was the only cat 5 storm to ever...
I should note that I am not dismissing the GFDL at all, however, even Dr. Masters has suggested that it is more LIKELY that the dynamic model...
If you go by actual numbers, yes. But, the margin of error is so incredibly small - less than 20 miles for the last two seasons - that,...
Ok, just got the latest model runs for both the GFDL and the HWRF. The GFDL has shifted south VERY slightly - about 50 miles - although in the...
Actually, I was just reading about their historical accuracy today. From the Chron SciGuy blog: Here, according to National Hurricane Center...
Ok, this shows the UKMET running at 18 00z, which is the latest run, and it is pretty much the same as the last run. [img] I tend to trust...
I should point out at least SOME good news. It would appear (with the GFDL being the one exception since I haven't seen the 00z run for it yet)...
Well, there are a couple of ways. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html - this has all the relevant models, but it's a little tricky to...
The GFDL is one of the most reliable models, but it varies from season to season, even storm to storm. It, the GFS and the NOGAPS tend to be the...
11pm advisory is out. NHC has not altered the track much at all noting in their discussion that, despite the southward shift by all the models,...
Just looked at the 18z run for the HWRF and it is also further south cutting across more of the Yucatan than before and closing in on landfall in...
SWEET!
It's a big mutha. I'm worried for the people in Jamaica.
Another shift has occurred with the models. The GFDL is now much closer to the Yucatan with a landfall in central Texas just north of Victoria....
4.x I don't use it as much on my machine as my guitarist since he's the studio owner.
The AEMN is a "mean" model from the GFS. According to what I've read, it is a mean average model between the GFS and the furthest outlier of the...
No problem. Another really good local resource is the Chronicle's SciGuy blog with Eric Berger. His blog is highly regarded and he gives out...
The 18z model run for the GFS is out and it is virtually the same as the last run if just SLIGHTLY nudged north when Dean hits Mexico, but it is...
Yup, exactly. NHC is still hedging by keeping the track over the very tip of the Yucatan in deference to the GFDL and the HWRF. In fact, this...
