Gonna answer both in one post .... and it boils down to executing an NBA offense. Remember how discombobulated this offense was when Fred was out? The team was terrible over that stretch and none of Reed, Amen or Jalen was able to fill that void. The most basic concept and the most prolific one is the pick and roll. Reed as the pick and roll ball handler was in the 18th percentile at 0.7 ppp Amen as the pick and roll ball handler was in the 46th percentile at 0.84 ppp Then there's isolation - Reed in isolation 59th percentile with 0.92ppp Amen in isolation 41st percentile 0.85ppp And finally transition: Reed 9th percentile 0.87ppp Amen 58th percentile 1.16 ppp The counting stats say Amen's great .... but the per possession stats tell us what he's great at which is for the most part playing off the ball. Reed's stats look more like that of a 2 guard than a point .... Maybe one or both of them take a huge leap but I wouldn't want to bed the season on it. As for FVV - they simply can't pick up that option without triggering the luxury tax for the year. I did the numbers in another thread based off of Adams getting the $8.3m BAE or less - he actually got ~$6m more in year one of his contract. At the BAE figure they were only able to offer FVV $28m or so without going over the luxury tax line (and filling the two roster spots held by Tate & Jeff Green with minimum contracts) meaning they could only offer FVV $22m and stay under the tax after Adams extension. That does take into account the #10 picks $6,016,080 for year 1. I don't know if the tax is the line in the sand or not but I'm almost certain they don't want to be over the 1A and that's only ~$8m more than the tax. Picking up that option or otherwise going into the tax starts the repeater clock for the team when they are not really contenders - starting that clock now just increases the cost later when they give other players extensions. It's difficult for me to see Stone doing that with the roster as currently constructed. I'm beginning to wonder if FVV is back next season - he's not getting more than MLE money on the open market, his only other options are take what the Rockets offer (likely below the tax line), they are the only team that can pay him aside from Brooklyn (can't see them giving him big money) or a sign and trade for a bigger number - or picking up the option and trading him.
With Adams signed to $14M next season, it will be tough to pick up FVV's option and trade him. The incoming salary would likely exceed the 1st apron next season such that any trade would have to meet 1st apron rules. I don't think the Giannis situation is known prior to the deadline to exercise the option. I just don't think the Suns would want their trade partner sending exactly the amount to them that they send out or have to pay another team for taking salary. The Rockets are not going into next season without a starting PG. I have high hopes that Reed takes the spot sometime in the next 2 seasons, but no reason not to have an option starting this coming season. Other than Jerome, not really another option at PG, and even then I'd expect the Rockets to try to keep FVV. It would likely require Brooks or Green being moved.
This is correct re: the salary implications. Front-loading Steven Adams contract signalled that the FO knows FVV is not getting traded, and is going to re-sign at a first year salary number <$30M. Otherwise the frontloading would be pushing more money into this year, a year in which we would be in the tax if FVV’s salary slot was taken up by a >$30M number. That’s not going to happen, obviously. You don’t frontload money to pay tax on it.
Not gonna lie, looking at the moniker and then the post is a bit creepy! https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...ith-rockets-3-39m.326638/page-7#post-15771526 ....... ....... .......
I'm not sure if the tax line or the 1st apron line is the line the Rockets are trying to avoid this season. I expect making the budget work in 27-28 is a bigger priority. I think the 1st apron and 2nd apron restrictions are going to make getting deep into the luxury tax difficult. As such, I don't think the repeater tax is going to be that big a deal going forward for the Rockets. I think the Rockets try their hardest to stay under 1st apron as long as they can. Staying under the tax is something they will try to do as long as it doesn't hurt the team too much (i.e., Landale, I'm looking at you).
There are a number of teams in the league that do not pay the tax, and you should only ever believe that they will pay the tax in the future once they’ve actually done it. The Rockets under Tilman Fertitta are one of those teams. The Pacers, for example, have also been one of those teams. They never paid the tax and are only now considering it to keep together a team going deep in the Finals. It’s ~$30M out of the owners pocket to even go a couple million over the line. Stone isn’t presenting that plan to Fertitta without a conference finals or finals appearance in his pocket. This is Tilman Fertitta we’re talking about. So no, we will almost certainly not be paying the tax this season.
I agree they likely won't be paying the tax this season. I don't think the tax is as big a boogie man as many make it out to be. For instance, a couple million over would likely only cost $15-20M (not receiving check from tax paying teams, amount over, and tax). As teams frantically get under the 2nd apron, the check size to non-taxpaying teams is going to get smaller each season relative to cap size.
They are in the tax at anything above $22m for FVV if you account for two open roster spots at the minimum and the ~$6m due the 10th pick. I'm not so sure they'd want to be that close to the tax line from the start of the season .... it leaves them little wiggle room in case of injury or X. Maybe they have another deal in the works that free's up some $$?
You probably have said it somewhere else, so I apologize for re-asking the question, but does this take into account Holiday's and Landale's TOs being exercised?
Am i the only one who thinks we’re should be past worrying about the tax? The aprons, sure. But the tax? Come on. We were the #2 seed. Also, Tilman is way richer now than when he bought the team - his “I’m not that type of billionaire” logic no longer applies. He’s among the top 7 - 8 richest owners in the NBA.
It's not so much the cost of being in the tax this season, it's starting the clock on being a taxpaying team & the repeater tax implications a year or more early. This team isn't likely to get any cheaper going forward. Tari & Jabari are in the last year of their deals, even if you keep just one of them, it likely costs you the $18m they make between them this season and that leaves an open roster spot. When Amen comes due, consensus is it's a max. This is a critical offseason for the teams future cap health.
Yes, it accounts for them being on the roster at the current values. They make $12,901,400 between them which means you can clear $8,359,930 by not picking up their options and replacing them with minimum contracts ($2,270,735). All three of those options - FVV, Landale & Holiday come due the same day - 6/29. It does not take into account Jeff Green or Tate who's roster spots are currently open.
