Please tell me why you have Jagger Beck, a recent UDFA who hasn’t thrown an inning of pro ball, among the top prospects in the system.
Langford has the stuff but that 8bb/9 is brutal. I think it’s interesting that 7 of their top 8 prospects (my list) could reach the majors this season.
Looks like some pretty good trade pieces. I've got Fleury #6 on your list. But that's just from what I've read.
He has no established floor yet but due to the shallow depth of pitching in the system he winds up among my top pitching prospects based solely on youth and his (by my accounting) very high ceiling.
Personally I have never been a big fan of Janek as a MLB starting catcher prospect. I just don’t trust the bat. Jaworsky developing power would sky rocket his value, but I think he is more likely to improve his bat to ball skills. This year is going to tell us a lot about Baez, Gomez and Ochoa. We have a bunch of flawed but high upside guys- really only need a couple to take the leap.
I dolike Janek either. I might be in the minority but I have faith in Matthews. If he can be a Bourn type he'd be extremely valuable
People having solid opinions on Janek is funny. Dude has 2-3 development years to figure it out. Maybe, he will. Maybe, he won't.
“Realistic” Ceiling comps for the 10 prospects I think will determine if Houston’s window stays open beyond 2035: Cam Smith: Pete Alonso with defensive versatility Jacob Melton: Colton Cowser with less walks and more steals Zach Dezenzo: Christopher Morel Brice Matthews: Teoscar Hernandez with more defensive value and more steals Luis Baez: Jake Burger Shay Whitcomb: Randy Arozarena Pedro Leon: Jose Siri with more versatility but worse CF defense Zach Cole: Brandon Marsh Kenedy Corona: Ramon Laureano Jeron Williams: Bo Bichette
Morel never cut down on strikeouts or when he finally did he couldn't hit any more.. Was pretty consistently a high K guy. Dezenzo has already gone from 30% in AA one year to 25% the next to 22% in AAA to 12% in the winter league. I don't think he will have near the strikeout issues that Morel has had. Morel strikes out 25% of the time in winter league too
I didn’t spend a ton of time researching. But if Dezenzo is able get his k rate in the 21-25% range he’d maybe comp better to somebody like Taylor Ward.
Fun with stat filtering: Since 2006, only 12 AAA players age 26 or younger have had a 20/20 season with a wRC+ >118: Joc Pederson Josh Lowe Kyle Tucker Pedro Leon Shay Whitcomb Trey Cabbage Ryan Noda Estevan Florial Justin Ruggiano Jarrett Parker Andrew Navigato Brewer Hicklen
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-100-prospects/ Fangraphs Top 100 came out today. Cam Smith (70) was the only Astros prospect on the list; they comp him to Alec Bohm. I was surprised Jacob Melton wasn’t on the list after they’ve made several comments about him as a potential ROY dark horse. Interestingly, 2 prospects the Astros traded away made the list: P Jake Bloss (66) and P Chayce McDermott (71). My list of guys I think could be on next year’s list, in order of likelihood: High likelihood: 3B Cam Smith Med likelihood: IF Brice Williams C Walker Janek Low likelihood: OF Luis Baez SS Chase Jaworsky P Miguel Ullola OF Kenni Gomez OF Nehomar Ochoa OF Zach Cole P Anderson Brito SS Jeron Williams P Ethan Pecko P Jackson Nezuh P Juan Bello OF Kenedy Corona I expect Jacob Melton, Zach Dezenzo, and AJ Blubaugh to graduate this year.
Astros-related quote from fangraphs prospect writer in his chat today: sliptoad: As a big Melton (Astros org) fan, what changed in your evaluation of him to drop him from the top 100 1:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Not a CF defense fit, inside outed a ton of fastballs, worry he’ll ge crushed by lefties. Platoon guy, still good.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2025-top-100-prospects/ ZIPS prospect rankings are almost entirely stats-based. They have Jacob Melton (74) and Brice Matthews (97) in the Top 100 with Cam Smith at 129. Houston has the 11th most prospects in the top 500 (18), but the least in the top 50 (0), and 3rd least in the top 100 (2) and top 200 (4). This aligns with my perception that Houston has above average depth in their system but is just lacking in top tier talent; they are 2 Top 50 prospects away from being an above average system.
I'm hoping that Smith/Matthews/Janek, Baez can make a big jump this season and the system will look much different. BTW, I consider Gomez to be a high end prospect. He's just young and growing into his body. What did these people think of Yanier before he was brought up to the MLB roster?
A lot of very high ceiling teenage talent played in Fayetteville last season. Gomez, Jaworsky, Villarroel, and Ochoa are the guys who showed pretty well, but lots of other guys with ceiling didn’t show well: Camilo Diaz, Waner Luciano, German Ramirez, Carlos Hernandez, and Alberto Hernandez all have the ceiling to be very good MLB players. I am also pretty high on Esmil Valencia who stayed in the FCL all year. Anthony Huezo is also worth tracking. There’s a big gap between the 18/19/20 year olds who spent most of 2024 in Fayetteville (that I listed above) and the 23/24/25+ year olds who will be in the upper levels this year, with Janek and Smith really the only prospects who would fit in the middle group to bridge it. Guys like Cam Fisher and Tyler Whitaker busting put a big dent there. All that said, I agree with you and I have full optimism that the system will look much better in 7 months than it does now.
