Fischer: Rockets interested in reaching long term deal with Fred VanVleet

Fred is a 6th man on a championship-level team. If he's willing to accept corresponding pay and minutes, then sure you want to keep him.

 

I feel like people are a little unrealistic when it comes to this. FVV isn’t signing for like 2/40 or 3/50. At least, I seriously doubt it. Not that it matters much. We’ll be an over the cap team primarily concerned with signing our own players.

 

I see it has a deal where FVV gets paid short term and Rockets get a tradeable contract who's good in the clubhouse...

3 years, 75 million with each year a series of team options.... similar to Landale...

Just in case some star we don't expect becomes available....

 

I honestly wouldn't mind keeping Fred on a big deal that expires in 2027 because once the Jalen, Segun and maybe Jabari and Tari extensions kick in, we'll be close to the cap with iust those guys and so well have no way of adding star level talent without a trade. A trade would require salary matching as we'd be operating over the cap and having one guy on a huge expiring contract makes it easy enough to make the trade by just adding picks and rookie contracts.

 

this is how I feel. Fred is a 6th man and that means Dillon money, not $30 mil per. Some of these salary takes are crazy to me. He’s being massively overpaid this year; im thinking 3yrs $70 mil on the extension.

 

This. What I've seen this year is a leader who's willing to be a facilitator and can transition to a scorer if/when needed. Last season, it was needed way more often than it has been this season. And going forward, I expect we will need him less as a scorer as the young bucks really start to dominate. He's the leader of this team and it's clear on the floor and in the huddle. There's a value to that which is greater than his shooting percentage.

That said, it should certainly be at something well less than what he's making per season now.

 

That's the funniest thing I've seen in a while!

 

I don't think this has anything to do with Reed. 1st we don't know what numbers the Rockets are thinking about. There's no reason they couldn't re-sign Fred and then if Reed becomes a better option during Fred's contract move Fred to a bench role. Like when they signed Dillon to a 4 year deal... I don't think that meant they expected Dillon to be the starter here for 4 years because no young player was going to develop to be good enough to take his spot...

Also, it makes sense financially to keep his his money on the books so they have salary to trade for a bigger fish down the road if they want to.

 

I think Fred is a great mentor for Reed and although Reed has severely underperformed during his NBA court time I still think he is considered the future PG here. It seems like that's not the case but I doubt it. I will say, Amen has turned into a Super Star and can literally play every position at an elite level. If they bolster the forward position he could turn into the full time PG which would leave Reed as part of the bench brigade as long as he is here.

 

Depends, are the Rockets confident enough in Amen and Reed to hold down the PG position going foward?

As great as Amen has played I still have to question whether he’s ready to be the lead guard, and even if Reed is ready next season I still see him being no more than a guy playing 18-20 minutes a night.

FVV may have questionable shot selection as a PG but he still has the veteran leadership and championship experience that you need on any team. I’m not against bringing him back but it has to be to a heavily reduced price from his last contract

 

Fred is going to be 31 in the first year of a new extension. Let's look at some other comparables from recent history for rotation players on playoff teams:

KCP (31): 3/$66M w/ PO, approximately 16% cap with slightly decreasing salary.

CJ McCollum (32): 2/$64M, approximately 23.71% cap with decreasing salary.

Tobias Harris (31): 2/$52M, approximately 18% cap with standard raises.

Alex Caruso (30): 4/$81M, approximately 11% cap, max allowable extension.

Somewhere between KCP and CJ seems like the actual market value for an extension for FVV. First thing I might consider is whether we really think it's worth doing; those deals for small guards on the wrong side of 30 are not aging well at all.

Next thing I'd consider is the cap impact. I did a future cap analysis in another thread, but long story short, I would want to make sure to avoid paying luxury tax (exceeding 121% of the salary cap) until you crash through and become a 2nd apron team in 2027-2028 and 2028-2029 to avoid triggering the repeater rate when your payroll is at its highest. For your consideration, exceeding the tax in either 2025 or 2026 would increase the tax bill of a 2028-2029 team that spends up to the second apron by roughly $70M.

If Fred is on this team in 2027 - 2028, he has to take the salary slot of either JSJ, Tari, or Whitmore. I'm not sure if I really want to be the 33-year old FVV business over any of those guys, or a potential external FA addition.

I like Fred, and I think he has done a ton of heavy lifting for this team. But I liked his deal because it was short and flexible. Unless he takes a Caruso-level discount, I can only see this ending badly. Better to have someone leave a bit early while they're still good, than to extend them just to watch them decline and become overpaid on your bench.

 

Fred is a backup pg on a championship team

 

Hopefully he considers 2 max years as some pre-payment. Because 3/60 and a backup role is the most they should offer.

 

If we can get Fred on a 2 year deal for between $56-$60M I think you do the deal. He's likely our starter going into next season and would hopefully transition to 6th man role later in 2025-26 season or at the beginning of 26-27 season. Beyond then I'd be fine if we extended him 1-2 years, but at a reduced salary. Not sure he would take that, but maybe by then we're really cooking and he doesn't want to leave our dynasty.

 

A three year full MLE is much worse for Fred than say 60/2 with a team option.

FVV isn’t going to drop dead after the season. High AAV/short term maximizes his earning potential, his status in the league, and is his whole personal brand.

Anyone thinking FVV is going to get $80 or $100M guaranteed over 2 or 3 years is missing the cap dynamics at play.

The FO would probably prefer to just pick up the 2025-26 $45M team option or even let him walk vs giving out >$20M/yr guaranteed money in 2026-27 or later.

There are zero non tanking teams with more than the MLE available this summer, and FVV is averaging 15 & 6 on 38% from the field. I love the guy, but 30M/yr on a 2-1 would be a big win for him.

 

$30M/yr for his production is obscene. would prefer to look elsewhere for a pg that can actually drive and make a layup

 

Hell no, this would r****d the growth of the team.

FVV is in decline he is a nice backup option but as a lead guard he is about at the end of his tether.

DD

 

It's always funny how little defense matters when fans talk about players.

FVV means a lot to the Rockets on both sides of the ball. Udoka knows that, the assumption fans have that anybody can do what he does is so stupid.

Team has done nothing but go up since he got here, and people act like he's along for the ride and not a huge part of our current record.

 

while i think he has value and is a big reason for our current record, he was overpaid for 40 mill. He has multiple games where he just straight up put up less than double digit pts. if we are gonna extend him, it's gonna b at a discount