There were two main concerns with Sengun predraft that caused him to fall, defense and size(to play center, because he’s too slow to play pf.) As I stated in the OP, I had a sneaking suspicion that his defense would translate much better to the NBA than expected, due to his high steal and block rate he demonstrated in the Turkish league, a tribute to his high basketball IQ. So far in preseason (and summer league), that has carried over. In preseason he has had a 1.82% steal rate (good even for a guard) and 7.9% block rate (elite for a center). It is preseason, and I don’t expect everything to 100% translate to the regular season, but I’m confident these will be his strengths, which will mitigate his defensive shortcomings. The other concern was size. There were rumors that he was 6’9, 6’8 even. Today the nba website updated official heights measured in barefoot, which the nba required from teams since a few years ago. https://www.nba.com/player/1630578/alperen-sengun Sengun is listed at 6’10 barefoot, or 6’11 in shoes. This was already apparent to anyone watching the last few games, standing next to Poeltl who is a legit 7’1 and did not look overmatched. At this point, it is clear to me that Sengun is not a bit undersized to play the 5 in the NBA, and has shown positive signs on the defensive end. Without these two perceived weaknesses, and with his bevy of well known strengths listed in the OP, Sengun is a bonafide top tier draft prospect. And it clearly shows.
Get this Kid in the gym with Dream in the Off season this guy is a star he just needs a Hall of Famers touch
Sengun is slowly turning Clutchfans into his personal fan club after every game he plays He's already stolen the rookie spotlight from Green even though he was the 2nd pick and Sengun was the 16th
On a night where his top pick teammate was making history, I thought Sengun had some of the loudest plays, and they were all on the DEFENSIVE end. In the past two games, Sengun has been switched onto SGA and Dennis Schroeder, two of the quickest penetrating guards, they both tried to attack him off the dribble, and both got the ball stuffed back in their face. Sengun is also averaging 2.3 steals in 18 minutes. He's poking the ball loose left and right, he's diving for saves, he is a MENACE, on defense! Everything I said in the OP in regards to his steals and block rate translating to the nba is coming true, and how that bodes well for his defense holding up. THIS IS IMPORTANT. Because remember, defense was the entire knock on this kid. Outside of defense he is elite at everything. The rebounding is translating, the foul drawing is translating, the passing is translating. Ok, the outside shot still needs work. But he is so smart, such a basketball savant, that because they told him to focus on defense since that’s his weakness, he is turning it into a strength (with his mind) despite his physical limitations. It’s happening!
After his first 10 games, Sengun is shooting 41.7% from 3. “He can’t shoot” CHECK “He can’t play defense” CHECK The only thing holding him back now is his coach.
As one of the founding members of Sengun fan club I have to confess that I have never believed he would be a superstar. Perennial allstar, yes. Better than Sabonis, I said that. But a bonafide superstar, no. And to be sure, he is not that today. But he is only 22 and I may have been wrong. Missing bunnies and easy shots to start the season aside, the rest of his game is taking another leap (especially defensively) that is ahead of what I envisioned. His BPM is 6th in the entire league right now. His EPM (probably the best public metric behind paywall) has his impact equivalent to names like James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Lamelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards. And above names like Kevin Durant, Bam Adebayo, Sabonis, Zion Williamson. Of his age or younger, there is only one player in the entire league with a higher EPM than Sengun - Wemby. That’s it. https://dunksandthrees.com/epm Numbers. Eye test. It is time to admit that I was wrong. Completely and utterly and shamefully wrong that his ceiling would be an elite #2 guy. He is the numero uno. He is the Rockets core. He is the one true franchise player.
The problem with Jalen is that 1. He is just not that guy, it is obvious to anyone who understands basketball that he will never be a number 1 guy on a good team. 2. He can only go off when the best players on the team are struggling or injured, like the first 5 games with fvv and Sengun this season or when Sengun was hurt last season. This is because he has no bbiq and has no clue how to play off of better players without dominating the ball himself. If you want to bump my predraft evaluation of Jalen that was my problem with him, you don’t “learn” bbiq at 19, you either have it or don’t. Couple those two things and he’s better off as a 6 man that can have the ball in his hands more, except that’s never going to happen now that we gave him that contract. Credit to him he is actually a neutral defender now, and a neutral overall player - no longer a net negative. But someone like that does not belong in the same sentence as a budding superstar like Sengun, like who are we kidding now lol.
