Decision Desk HQ Election Night Live Model Published in the Harvard Data Science Review The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) team recently published an article in the Harvard Data Science Review that provides an in-depth look at their new Live Primary Model, a real-time tool for predicting primary election results. We are excited to release publicly the DDHQ Live Election Night Pulse this next Tuesday, which is a descendent of this model. This model is unique in its integration of geospatial and demographic data with sophisticated statistical methods, allowing it to accurately predict outcomes by focusing on completed or nearly completed Voting Collection Units (VCUs), such as counties or townships. A key advantage of the Live Primary Model is its adaptability and precision. Traditional election models often rely on pre-set assumptions for each region, but the DDHQ model dynamically adjusts to live vote data and continuously updates its predictions based on incoming results. This real-time adaptability is possible due to its integration with DDHQ’s results API, which provides continuous vote and turnout data updates throughout election night, and its design includes specialized statistical techniques like generalized estimating equations and copula methods for more nuanced estimates. As votes are reported from different areas, the model dynamically adjusts candidates’ predicted strengths across regions, with more emphasis on areas sharing greater demographic or geographic similarity. This nuanced approach allows the model to respond to varying degrees of similarity, making it especially effective in capturing the high variability typical in primary races. The model’s methodology stands out by isolating and analyzing vote data from VCUs with a high reporting completion percentage. This ensures it provides stable topline predictions, reducing the potential for inaccuracies that often arise when relying on incomplete vote data. Furthermore, the model is equipped to recognize geographic and demographic nuances, utilizing local polling data to set initial estimates that become increasingly refined as results come in from areas where candidates perform strongly. The model’s flexibility also allows for adjustments specific to each election, such as tuning demographic weights or setting the threshold for considering a VCU “nearly completed.” This parameter adjustment is particularly valuable in the varied landscape of U.S. primary elections, where factors such as vote-by-mail prevalence, candidate familiarity, and local political dynamics can all shift voting patterns. For instance, in states with high mail-in voting like California, the model exercises caution, adjusting its parameters to account for the delayed availability of complete VCU data. What this meant for our audience and clients were faster race calls, with even greater levels of assurance throughout the course of the recent primary season.
I don't think folks realize how much of a utter disaster eliminating the education department would be. How many minority parents do you know that have 60k+ saved up for their kids education? No more pell grants/student loans would be a disaster for majority of families in this country. I don't understand how folks are so brainwashed to think trumps plans will help the economy? Eliminating access to college while issuing massive universal tariffs + removing pre existing protections for health issues will help the economy?
Decision Desk has proven to be a gaslighting operation this is an eg of Decision Desk intentionally lying about NV and PA data in order to support a pre-conceived conclusion in this Nevada poll analysis by Decision Desk, https://elections2024.thehill.com/nevada/, it shows Harris leading Trump 49 to 47; up 1 point from last week in this PA poll analysis by Decision Desk, https://elections2024.thehill.com/pennsylvania/, it shows Harris leading 50 to 48, same margin as last week Decision Desk's overall summary of the swing state is contradicted by its own analysis of poll, state bt state, had its overall summary inculde the correct data---Harris leading in NV and PA---Harris would be winning,
If you watch FOX, you just hear about inner city schools being full of gangs and drugs. And you hear that teachers unions have ruined schools and lazy public school teachers are ruining our children. Never mind the random sex changes (sic) in the school nurse's office (sic). And if you watch FOX, you will never hear that a huge number of economists co-signed a letter about Harris's plan being superior to Trump's, while warning against his nutty tariff scheme. I guess I don't understand how people don't understand the divide anymore. We have allowed for-profit media and for-profit social media to cleave us in two and feed us different products just to help maximize their profits. At a business level of analysis, of course the election is close. That maximizes anger and profit for these attention industries. How could it not end up in a near deadlock? And overtime games sell extra ad revenue. Don't sleep on that as we head into Wednesday and Thursday this week.
"Trump has all the momentum" lol he can't even fill the bottom half of a venue the day before the election
Still no telling. Trump has slight lead in AZ and GA. PA has Harris with a slight lead and registration favors Democrats by about 2:1. 77 million have already voted. PA, WI, and MI would give Harris exactly 270. If one of those fails she's got pick up some from NV, NC, AZ, etc. IA seems crazy but there's talk. I can't imagine it doesn't state Red.
I still strongly doubt IA will go for Harris. What is more interest is the methodology of the poll. It is showing that there is a late swing to Harris among older white voters. That swing might not be able to swing a state that has comfortably gone for Trump and other Republicans but could hint at changes in the voting demographic. That could make a difference in WI, and MI.
The Harris rally was at 11am while the trump rally was in the evening. Are you this slow? Trumps morning rally in North Carolina was just as empty
They gonna need several busted pipes in order to win, they will try thou..... Its going to take years for Pennsylvania to finish counting, Argentina the entire country had results within hours the election ended....
I'm happy to see people checking out of the election early, lol. That being said, Pittsburgh metro area has 2.5 million people. Allentown metro has 860k.
I have seen both candidate's rallies on TV and I was forced to sit through one, I would automatically vote for the other candidate. Especially on a Monday. With that said, Pennsylvania this time of year is very nice.
Traditionally the loudest jackasses go poof when their side loses. So, don't get your hopes up. Either way my ignore list will get a small reprieve. Unless Trump loses narrowly in which case there will be an insufferable avalanche of xitter conspiracy **** posting going on from our favorite braindead parrots.
