No - he isn't the Rockets whisperer - but he puts a lot of thought into his analysis, he takes into account fit and need and ability. He is essentially making educated guesses based on what the advanced numbers show and what the film shows when he watches it. I think @Medicine N Music is pretty good, I would listen to him or discuss with him the draft, because he is informed. I find myself agreeing with him more often than not - and sometimes he gives me a different perspective than I considered. When I need to know where to bury a dead vagrant in Austin, I go to @KingCheetah ..... when I want to discuss the draft, or basketball, I go to @Deuce and @Medicine N Music - amongst others.
Just what I was thinking. This is just reinforcing what the 90% wants and trying to convince the other 10%? Maybe just a guy giving his opinion that matches most people's??.... Yeah, probably simple as that.
10%? I am mostly meh but yeah I take the shooter or the Klingon..... Just have a decent season again and do not muck it up.
I haven't seen it mentioned, but I think his best comparison is already on the Rockets and would be the perfect mentor: Fred Van Vleet
You know the guy I quoted is named meh. So you're mostly him. Keyword mostly. I'll take Risacher after his impressive recent play. I'm also a bit extreme where I'd trade up for Sarr, but I'll keep that to myself.
1) We probably have not seen as good a shooting prospect as Reed for a long time 2) His low rim attempts this season is somewhat similar to Cam’s low assist, he’s capable of doing it (in small sample he did finish strong) but when he does all the other things so well why bother. 3) This dude is incredibly strong. Check out his massive biceps and his strong legs. He is more stout than both FVV and Lowry coming out of the draft. 4) Some draft dudes claim his shots are all easy shots, which is not accurate at all. Per synergy (I cannot find the link but will try later) about 20% of his shots are easy shots. 5) In the minutes where he handled the ball, he did a great job. Simple games, but impacts winning tremendously. The lineup where both Reed and Rob were on the floor was killing it (+30 ish) 6) His transition reads and processing speed is phenomenal. 7) His hands are QUICK. In that regard he’s very much like FVV. 8) POA defense might have issues, but I’d bet on his high IQ and above average athleticism and strengths to make up for some of the shortcomings. 9) Sam Vecenie mentioned three areas that contribute to players outperforming their draft positions in the past years (Halliburton, Brunson and Maxey): Elite feel. Elite processing ability. Elite shooting. Reed has them all. I’d love to bet on these types of players to have superior, underrated upsides. 10) I wouldn’t say he’s a dog yet, but he’s definitely a high-effort guy (there were some ball-watching but in Ime’s teaching they can be corrected over time.) 11) ALL advanced stats indicate Reed is going to be a special, a very very good basketball player. A question that we shall ask ourselves when evaluating players in draft is that “is he supposed to be THIS good this early given his physical limitations”?
I just do not want Stone to think that he can rest on his laurels after drafting borderline All Star after borderline All Star and he could just forego trades and forego trades.
I agree with you. The problem is that there are no surefire superstars in this draft. Luka was #3 in his draft. The #3 should give you a lot of potential superstar options, but that's not this draft. Plus everyone knows it's a weak draft. The value of the pick is low and won't net you a "superstar" for it. Even if it was, there's no real non-middling star available. Paul George? Brandon Ingram?.... It's a rock and a hard place. May as well stay pat and draft someone.
I don't have experience watching full games of his - what I know of him is what I gathered from watching several draft oriented videos of him breaking down tape to showcase his skill sets and what I have read from pro and amateur scouts. It seems like there is a gulf with how scouts view him that basically boils down to what you think his upside can be. For those more skeptical on him, he slots as a 7-10th type of pick(in a weak draft) and maybe has a best case as a backup PG in the NBA(maybe a Jose Alvarado type of player). For those who believe in the elite shooting upside and think his defensive skills will translate, you probably think he is a top 5 player in the draft and a future NBA PG. Short arms, short height, slower release - I'm going to guess he will have a lot more problems shooting over longer, faster players in the NBA and his defense against longer and quicker players will be similarly impacted....but if the accuracy he shoots with can be translated to range(like Steph), then I'm a little more comfortable with the high side projection. I think its clear he HAS to be a PG in the league and that is typically the hardest position to learn. I've seen video of him acting as a PG bringing the ball up with little pressure but I didn't see any video of him showcasing awesome ball handling skills against defenders pressuring him. I see a great connective passer for sure but the classic "PG who creates angles to get players the ball right where they need it" is nothing something I have seen from him at all. He definitely processes quickly but I don't necessarily see "natural facilitator" written all over him like I do Amen. Not saying he can't do it - but what I am saying is, he's going to need A LOT of playing time to make that transition and how much playing time can we really give him to learn on the job with iron man Fred on the roster...and what about Amen by the way? And for the record I don't think he is unathletic at all - I noticed he rated similar or even better to Bronny in all the combine events. Clearly the guy is an athlete(although not necessarily elite because of his size) but he really comes in at a disadvantage in a game where inches and milliseconds really do matter. My other problems is where we are picking him at the #3 slot. He will be making close to $10mil on the final year of his rookie deal. From a risk mitigation standpoint if his size makes him a bust - it's really the worst case scenario for Houston because not only do we not get the player we thought but no one else will want him either so you effectively lost all value in the pick. Thats why I would advocate for players with size AND upside because those players typically have an opportunity to gain some trade value even if they don't fit your strategic needs. This is a weird draft - effectively we are picking a guy who would be late lotto, maybe even outside of the lotto in a stacked draft and the contracts and risk are much lower in those areas of the draft board. Purely from an asset management standpoint, there is enough concern about the possibility of whether Reed misses that I think people should consider alternative players. ....I think the other tough thing here is - what really are our positional needs? Is Amen a PG, is Cam and/or Jalen our future SG? What about a SF? Is Alpi our 4 or our 5 and what about Jabari's position? Do we need a Center and if so is that a pick and roll center, a traditional rim protector, etc? It feels like there are a lot of very muddy questions that we really only JUST started to explore this season because the front office had no interest in exploring them before(aside from "can KPJ/Jalen be a PG?")
I thought about trading up for Sarr but the problem with him is the same with all other bigs. You need to be absolutely certain him and Sengun can work together. Yes the potential is there, and if the Rockets have the #1 pick I'd just take him. But trading up and taking a guy with such risk feels too much. But yeah, Risacher at this point feels like the "safe" pick because his floor is a versatile 3&D guy. He'd fit with the rest of the guys on offense and defense plus there's still potential to be a more potent offensive player. I would not be surprised at all Stone takes him at 3 if both him and Sheppard are there.
I agree. Great post by OP and it has me more interested in Sheppard than before. That said, this post of his from last year shows he's not always on target with assessments: "Most mocks have the Rockets taking Amen at #4, but I would be highly surprised if the Rockets went this route as Amen does not fit our goal of winning asap and it would deviate from the advanced metrics and value drafting the Rockets have done in the past 2 years. 20 year olds playing high school kids, but cannot dominate and can't shoot, would be a good pick somewhere, but definitely not at #4." Disclaimer: I'm no draft savant myself.
Right now Whitmore, Jabari and Tari. These guys are one off-season or two away from killing you off ball. We've invested in them. They've shown growth and responded to coaching. These guys need years to be able to create for themselves and be non-roleplayers. Compare that to Reed who like anyone else has to take a dip for the NBA then work his way up. What's he going to do outside of 3PT shooting when his efficiency is an average 36% or something? We all know he's not going to shoot the same volume+percentage in the NBA in his rookie season. I'll bet money Jabari is more likely to improve in the NBA than Shepard is likely to maintain his college efficiency.
After Risacher's play the last few days, Risacher is looking like he's going #1. Jonathan Wasserman's new mock today has him at #1. Now this means nothing. He's just a guy throwing his opinion out there. BUT it does point to the greater opinion on Sarr #1 starting to shift. Hopefully Atlanta sees what he sees. Who Washington would take is the question. I could see them going Topic #2. Sarr at #3 would be crazy, but not improbable. Jabari was the #1 for the entire draft process up until the pick was about to be made. There's hope for getting him at #3. Interesting stuff. Risacher has to continue playing well and this draft will be shaken up.
To me, Jabari is the only off ball high potential role player we have. Tari has never been known to be a sharp shooter. He's a jack of all trades kind of guy that is good for any team. Whitmore is also not a sharp shooter in college (only 34%). We hope he will turn into a 3-level kind of scorer rather than just off ball shooting. I see that you are still pegging Sheppard into that "3pt shooting only white guy" stereotype. I am surprised that with so much discussion about his other skills and talent, you would say, "What's he going to do outside of 3PT shooting when his efficiency is an average 36% or something?"
Minor quibble, but why do you think he has a slow(er) release? I'm pretty sure I've seen him described as having a quick release. Certainly seems that way based on the pull-ups I've seen, and I've also seen him catch a pass and shoot in one movement (vs needing to dip and start his full shot motion). Definitely short arms and height (though possibly around average for PG), but I'm not sure I agree with the slow release claim. Also on the PG stuff, I do think Amen is a better (potential?) playmaker, even if you remove his physical advantages. I still think Reed can do quite well in that role too though, especially if you have him going off DHOs and actions like that (i.e., not isolations). He has a decent first step I think, and with his processing and skill, he can take advantage of a defensive mistake. Using that and his vision/passing skills, he definitely could be effective in that role IMO. He does need to tighten up the handle though, and he didn't get the ideal PG reps at Kentucky (even if he excelled in the reps he did get).
