Don't trust number of pitches, strike %, or swinging strikes for complex leagues. They register every strikeout as 3 strikes, every ball in play as 1 strike, and every walk as 4 balls. They don't actually keep track of pitches like A ball and above.
He has a long long way to go...... but he is one of those rare pitchers that can literally throw the ball past everyone with strong late vertical explosion. He isn't trying to deceive anyone or set up the count.... he is literally just rearing back and trying to throw the ball down the middle knowing that if its close, no one is going to hit it.
He struggled as an 18 year old in the FCL and they promoted him to A ball this year at 19 years old. His overall numbers between the two spots really are not that different. When I have asked about his struggles and why they didn't demote him, I was told that they were not worried about his numbers, that he is learning to play SS, that his glove in the outfield is awesome and that they are completely redoing his approach and mechanics and he is young for his level. So, IDK. Normally if someone with a team told me that I would roll my eyes, but the Astros have proven to know what they are doing. Even the guys they have missed on, you could see the talent that just never worked out.
Their list is lazy and not how the Astros internally view their own prospects. For example, I know that they internally have no problem moving a teenager way up their ranks even with little experience, and likewise do not ding guys that are in their mid 20's but are performing well after a slow start to their minor league career. Joe Perez I think just doesn't have the experience, health or luck needed and a lot of that cannot be magically made up. It is going to be a numbers game shortly. There is a supposed catcher in AAA that likely will be given the first base gig in the spring if the Astros don't sing someone.
Yainer Diaz now has 15 homers is 44 games in AAA and has 24 homers in 108 games on the season. They have him catching a majority of the time after giving him some time at 1st.......... he has thrown out 2 of 30 base runners in AAA after throwing out 35% in his minor league career. Have I mentioned that they don't believe he likes playing catcher?
I mean obviously every team is going to have their own internal rankings, just crazy how mlb.com treats him, I guess because the team gave him that brief cup of coffee. How I'd love for him be backup Catcher and start 1B. Gives you so much more flexibility basically able to carry an extra bench player. The Dodgers have had that over the years.
The overall dev team is really good and they’ve certainly produced hitting stars as well as solid major league ball players out of unheralded players…. But is the batter development anywhere close to as good as the pitching development? Feels like you never hear about the hitting side. Fangraphs has written a few articles on the Blue Jays hitting development process and it’s been really impressive. Are the Astros on that level?
FCL thoughts now that their season is over: Small sample, but solid debut for Ryan Clifford (wRC+ 145). A 32% k rate might indicate he needs to start back there next season but I’m sure he will go to instructs and could show enough there to be assigned to Fayetteville next season, which would be a great sign. I would expect Dauri Lorenzo, Yohander Martinez, Yamal Encarnacion, Luis Encarnacion, and Ricardo Toro to see time in full season ball next year. High ceiling athletes Roilan Machandy, Richi Gonzalez, Fernando Caldera, and Hector Nieves all probably need more complex time, which is disappointing. Not much to take away on the pitching side. Carlos Espinosa is probably the guy I’m most looking forward to seeing in full season ball next year.
We say this every year, but Jeremy Pena went from a defense-first SS that can reach the majors if he can get his bat working to a 4+ WAR major leaguer in his rookie year. A very good success story from the hitting coaches IMO.
It is hard to say, because how far back do we go and what do we consider success on the hitting side? I would say off the top of my head, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick and Meyers all are success stories and were never even solid prospects.How much credit do you give them for guys like Alvarez, Bregman and Tucker? All three are really talented but have exceeded all expectations. We will know how good they are at this point in time, in a couple years but I would say they are conservatively top 5? It gets hard to separate their ability to identify talent and their ability to develop it. For example, they messed with Yanier Diaz’ swing and approach at the plate. So is he good because of that or was he destined to always be good? They are working with Mancini now to unlock more power and they are working a lot with Leon and Gilbert. So I think ultimately you look at the prolonged success of the hitters at the big league level and the Astros are and have been pretty good. Dodgers come to mind as very good, they worked with Muncy and Turner and even Smith. The Jays as well.
@Nook Today, Shawn Dubin will be the opener (and then Bielak will piggyback). Are the Astros still hoping Dubin can be a starter, or do you think they are going to develop him exclusively as a reliever. I really don't think he has starter stamina, and he profiles as the type who'd provide more value as a late inning reliever.
We've had one of the "worst" farms in baseball for 3 or 4 years. I wouldn't pay to much attention to national pundits. Our dead farm has produced a ton of MLB value over that time.
Tyler Whitaker went 2-4 with an RBI single in Fayetteville's 3-0 win over Charleston. Jackson Loftin homered (2) and Zach Dezenzo also had an RBI single. Nolan DeVos was the third pitcher to appear and while he did walk three in his two innings, he didn't allow a hit and struck out five. Tyler Guilfoil allowed a hit, walked one, and struck out three in the final two innings to close it out.
Nice to see a few of the pitchers being assigned to Fayetteville. Apparently, Tim Borden (the last position player to be assigned) is listed on Asheville's roster.
Looked up some Pena stuff back when drafted, it's exactly what you think. https://www.mlb.com/video /2018-draft-jeremy-pena-ss-c2074648183 (just combine the two, won't let me post the full link without turning it into a broken embed) + to ++ defender, 15+ HR power, but big questions about contact ability and approach at the plate.
