I think the big thing Dirden has working against him is not being rule 5 eligible this offseason. They would have to commit a 40 man spot to him throughout the offseason to bring him up. Not a huge deal, but probably enough that they would need to feel pretty confident that he would produce quickly. I think the pedigree is a bit hard to gauge with him being a 2020 guy. We don't know if he would have gone 6th or 36th round. The numbers are hard to ignore, but they also make you wonder why he hasn't been moved more aggressively. I think a 2023 debut seems most likely.
From what I see, exactly one position player drafted in 2020 has made the majors — Spencer Torkelson, aka the #1 pick. Dirden being in AAA is plenty aggressive.
He's also 25, same age as Jake Meyers when he debuted and nearly a year older than the average MLB player making his debut.
Justin Dirden looks to not have a OF home ... or is so versatile he can play all OF positions. CF: 54 games LF: 48 games RF: 63 games
That's pretty standard stuff for the Astros in the minors. Taylor Jones has played 46 games at 3B in the minors but there is no way he will play there in MLB unless it's an emergency sub situation.
Every year during the week after the draft I put down my impressions of each player and compile a top 5 list. In 2020 Dirden was the last player on that list. My top 5 draftees from 2020 with draft week impressions and a current update. 1 Alex Santos Good foundation & deep repertoire with projectability. #3 upside. Off to a fair start. Not setting the world on fire but not a bust yet either. 2 JC Correa Carlos’ brother, versatile infielder with some real potential in his bat. As expected JC looks like a versatile IF bench player, but now he can catch a little too. 3 Zack Mathews Oklahoma SP & likely 2nd rounder before TJ surgery in May. FB hits 98. Looks like I missed on this one completely. 4 Jimmy Endersby High strikeout starter, starts in the low minors but likely goes to the pen, floor is late inning RP. Endersby has moved up quickly & stayed in the rotation longer than I expected. May wind up as part of a trade. 5 Justin Dirden Power bat in the outfield. Possible LF candidate if the hit tool is credible? Another quick mover who will probably get his first shot at LF in the Spring. It's fun to get one right once in a while, but rare. Time will tell.
That's a fair point. It's not so much that he's not made the majors yet, just that if they anticipated Dirden possibly playing a role with the major league club this year, they probably would want to test him against AAA competition before the deadline.
What is a good comp for Dirden? I know it’s difficult because players often mash in minors but can’t hit their weight in MLB. So far, I’m thinking…Bonds
That actually looks like a good comp. White reached AA and AAA at 24 as well and similarly had a sterling track record offensively up to that point. Of course though Dirden has more power but more Ks compared to White. White is probably at least an average hitter as a big leaguer but he provides no value outside of that. Hopefully Dirden is at least a competent corner OF.
I'm pretty sure the change in MLB run environment (changing ball, more uniform procedure for mud, more humidors, pitch com) has completely messed up MLB projections based on AA and below.
I agree I would refrain from relying on it in forecasting his performance but I found it interesting the projection systems have bought into him so quickly. They seem to really believe in his power.
I could see maybe Mike Yastrzemski as a ceiling comp for Dirden. Or maybe Teoscar Hernandez (except bats lefty).
The two DSL teams are playing doubleheaders against their counterparts from the Guardians today. The Orange team won their first game 3-1 over the Guardians' Blue team, which was a resumption of a game that started on August 2. Waner Luciano hit what was officially his 3rd home run of the season after play resumed, so he now has 5 homers on the year. Jose Guedez came on after play resumed and he allowed four hits, walked four, and struck out 10 over seven shutout innings. His ERA is now 0.42.
I could see Joc Pederson comp, solid all around corner OF with holes in his game. Value will be mostly dependent on how well he’s hitting for the year.
The FCL teams are playing each other today and the two undrafted free agents got the start today. Austin Temple: 3 IP, 3 H, BB, 4 K for the Blue team; Temple signed out of Notre Dame. Logan VanWey: 2 IP, BB, 5 K for the Orange team; VanWey signed out of Division II Missouri Southern State.
